2026 Farmers Insurance Open

Introduction

The PGA Tour remains in California this week for the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines. Each golfer will play one round on the North Course and one on the South Course before the cut is made, with both weekend rounds contested on the South Course. The event also marks the return of Brooks Koepka to the PGA Tour, as he looks to play his way toward earning his full Tour card after his departure to LIV Golf.

Course Breakdown, Tournament History & Early Weather Forecast

As previously mentioned, this event will be contested across two courses at Torrey Pines. Each golfer will play one round on the North Course and one round on the South Course before the cut is made. All players who advance to the weekend will then play both remaining rounds on the South Course.

Let’s start with the more important test this week, the Torrey Pines South Course. The South Course is a par 72 measuring 7,765 yards and was originally designed by William Francis Bell in 1957, with significant renovations later completed by Rees Jones in 2001 and again in 2021. The layout features four par 3s, four par 5s, and ten par 4s, along with 82 bunkers and water in play only on the par-5 18th hole. The greens are Poa Annua, while the fairways are Kikuyu grass overseeded with rye, and the rough consists of overseeded rye. Success on the South Course requires a combination of distance and accuracy off the tee, along with precision on long-iron approach shots. Scrambling is also critical, as greens in regulation are difficult to come by. This is far from a birdie fest, and contenders will need to grind out pars throughout the week.

The Torrey Pines North Course is also a par 72, measuring 7,258 yards, and was originally designed by William Francis Bell in 1957. The course underwent a major renovation in 2016 by Tom Weiskopf, which rerouted several holes to better showcase the ocean views. Like the South Course, the North features four par 3s, four par 5s, and ten par 4s. The greens are bentgrass, while the fairways and rough are Kikuyu grass overseeded with rye. While driving and scrambling are still important, they are less demanding here than on the South Course. Driving accuracy and strong approach play are the primary keys to success, and players will need to take advantage of the more forgiving setup to position themselves for a run at the title over the weekend.

The two‑course rotation has been in place over the past 10 years, with the winners and their scores to par listed below:

• 2025 - Harris English (-8)

• 2024 - Matthieu Pavon (-13)

• 2023 - Max Homa (-13)

• 2022 - Luke List (-15)

• 2021 - Patrick Reed (-14)

• 2020 - Marc Leishman (-15)

• 2019 - Justin Rose (-21)

• 2018 - Jason Day (-10)

• 2017 - Jon Rahm (-13)

• 2016 - Brandt Snedeker (-6)

Over the past decade, the average winning score at the Farmers Insurance Open has been roughly 13 under par, making it one of the more challenging events on the PGA Tour schedule.

The early forecast looks about as favorable as one could hope for coastal California this time of year, with little to no chance of rain throughout all four days. Winds are expected to be moderate to light on Thursday and Friday, easing to light breezes over the weekend. If these conditions hold, the winning score could be around 15 under par.

Field Breakdown

We have a strong field this week at the Farmers Insurance Open, featuring 12 of the top 25 golfers in the Official World Golf Rankings. This includes Xander Schauffele (#4), J.J. Spaun (#7), Justin Rose (#10), Harris English (#11), Alex Noren (#13), Hideki Matsuyama (#15), Keegan Bradley (#16), Chris Gotterup (#17), Ludvig Åberg (#18), Cameron Young (#20), Maverick McNealy (#23), and Aaron Rai (#24).

Other notable players in the field include Patrick Cantlay, Max Homa, Billy Horschel, Rasmus Højgaard, and Marco Penge, who will be making his PGA Tour debut this week. As mentioned earlier, Brooks Koepka will also be returning to the PGA Tour after his time on LIV Golf, a return many are excited about. Hopefully, he receives a very warm welcome back this week.

Several previous Farmers Insurance Open champions are also competing, including Harris English (2025, defending champion), Matthieu Pavon (2024), Max Homa (2023), Luke List (2022), Justin Rose (2019), Jason Day (2015 & 2018), and Brandt Snedeker (2012 & 2016).

The talent in this field is outstanding, and I’m looking forward to watching these players grind it out at Torrey Pines!

Outright Betting Breakdown

Hideki Matsuyama +3300

Matsuyama ranks ninth in my model this week, which is more than enough for me to fire him up at Torrey Pines, a venue where he has produced several strong finishes throughout his career.

He opened his season with a T13 at the Sony Open in Hawaii, another course where he has consistently played well. This will mark his second start of the season, returning to Torrey Pines where he has recorded six top-20 finishes in 14 career starts. Matsuyama is a world-class iron player, and when his approach game is dialed in, only Scottie Scheffler has been better in recent years (and thankfully, Scheffler isn’t in the field this week). He’s also elite around the greens, a skill set that will be critical at Torrey Pines.

Hideki isn’t flashy off the tee or with the putter, but his all-around ball-striking and short game give him the ability to win anywhere. With 12 PGA Tour victories to his name, he has proven time and again that he can contend and close.

I believe this is the week Matsuyama finally gets across the finish line at Torrey Pines and lifts his 13th PGA Tour trophy.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 31st

• Off-the-Tee: 91st

• Approach: 19th

• Around the Green: 17th

• Putting: 126th

Ryan Gerard +5200

Gerard doesn’t rank highly in my model this week, coming in at 66, but he’s simply too difficult to ignore given his recent form and the course fit at Torrey Pines.

He’s coming off his third consecutive runner-up finish, highlighted by a second-place result at the AfrAsia Bank Mauritius Open on the DP World Tour, followed by back-to-back runner-up finishes to open the PGA Tour season at the Sony Open in Hawaii and The American Express. You could easily argue he’s the most in-form golfer in the field right now.

This will be just his second start at the Farmers Insurance Open, where he finished a respectable T15 last year. Gerard is solid off the tee, ranking around tour average in distance while sitting above tour average in accuracy. He pairs that with a strong approach game and a reliable short game around the greens. While putting is generally his weakest area, Torrey Pines can help neutralize that deficiency, making this an enticing spot for him to potentially capture his second PGA Tour victory.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 8th

• Off-the-Tee: 36th

• Approach: 40th

• Around the Green: 23rd

• Putting: 32nd

Will Zalatoris +5700

Zalatoris is finally healthy and is coming to a place where he has found successs and suits his game very well. Zalatoris did not have enough qualified rounds to rank in my model this week, but him being one of my favorite players, I pay close attention to his game week in and week out and this is a venue I always have his name circled at.

Coming off of a T18 finish to start the PGA Tour season at The American Express, I anticipate Zalatoris to build off of that where he comes to a venue that fits his game much better. Let's address the elephant in the room, he is a woeful putter and it can be painful to watch down the stretch at times. That being said, his solid off the tee play being both above Tour average over his career in driving distance and driving accuracy, paired with an elite approach game has put him in positions to win on multiple occasions.

In 5 career starts at this event, Zalatoris has 3 top-15 finishes. I anticipate Zalatoris building off of both his start of the season and tournament history to win for the second time on the PGA Tour season.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 3rd

• Off-the-Tee: 16th

• Approach: 28th

• Around the Green: 37th

• Putting: 23rd

Max Homa +6000

Homa plays his best golf in California and is another one of my favorite players, so it should come as no surprise that he’s on my outright betting card this week. When you add in the fact that he ranks eighth in my model, it becomes a no-brainer.

Homa struggled for much of the 2025 season and was open about those difficulties, but he began to find his form toward the end of the year and carried that momentum into the fall swing. He opened his 2026 campaign with a T27 finish at The American Express, gaining strokes across the board in the primary strokes-gained categories. Now he returns home to California, where he has consistently played his best golf. Homa won this event in 2023 and has added three more top-20 finishes at Torrey Pines.

He’s a well-rounded player whose game is highlighted by strong approach play and elite putting. While his around-the-green play and occasionally erratic driving can be concerns, both areas have shown improvement over his past eight starts.

I’m backing Homa to build on his encouraging start to the season and strong course history as he looks to capture his seventh PGA Tour victory this week.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 6th

• Off-the-Tee: 26th

• Approach: 12th

• Around the Green: 109th

• Putting: 21st

Garrick Higgo +7500

Higgo ranks third in my model this week, which was simply too high to ignore.

This marks his PGA Tour season debut, but he put together one of the strongest swing seasons of anyone in the field without picking up a win. He recorded four top-10 finishes on the PGA Tour and capped it off with a T16 at the Nedbank Golf Challenge on the DP World Tour.

While his course history here isn’t particularly strong in four previous appearances, his skill set is exactly what I’m looking for at Torrey Pines. Higgo is a bomber off the tee and an excellent putter. His driving accuracy can be an issue at times, but with narrow fairways in play this week, much of the field will be hitting from the rough alongside him. That places a greater emphasis on iron play, an area that struggled at times last year but showed meaningful improvement over the swing season during those strong finishes.

At this price point, his recent form was impossible to overlook. I see this as a great opportunity for Higgo to contend and potentially lift his third PGA Tour trophy.

2025 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 22nd

• Off-the-Tee: 75th

• Approach: 126th

• Around the Green: 59th

• Putting: 6th

Karl Vilips +60000

Now for my long shot this week, I’m taking a shot on Karl Vilips at a ridiculously high number. While scrolling through the odds board this morning, I had to do a double take, and couldn’t resist throwing a few dollars his way.

He ranks 97th in my model this week, which obviously isn’t great, but his performance last week at The American Express caught my attention. Vilips opened the season with a T18 finish, and I was impressed by how his game looked across the board. His off-the-tee and approach play were excellent, and he even picked up strokes with the putter. I won’t dive too deep into the details since this is a true long shot, but it’s worth noting that he’s also a bomber off the tee, an important trait at Torrey Pines.

At this price, I couldn’t help myself on a 24-year-old who already owns a PGA Tour victory. A couple of dollars to win a lot of dollars feels more than worth the risk here.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 17th

• Off-the-Tee: 33rd

• Approach: 17th

• Around the Green: 129th

• Putting: 38th

I personally structure my outright betting cards to target a minimum return of 10x my unit.  In practice, this means I risk a total of one unit across all selections, with each individual bet paying out 10 units if it wins.  For example, if my unit is $100, each outright selection would return $1,000.  This approach aligns with my risk tolerance and ensures that hitting one winner in every ten events allows me to at least break even.

This is simply the system that works best for me.  I strongly encourage everyone to develop an approach that aligns with their own bankroll, risk tolerance, and betting goals.

Daily Fantasy Sports Breakdown

$10,000+ Range: Cameron Young $10,000

Young ranks first in my model this week, and while I ultimately passed on him in the outright market due to the short price and the fact that he’s making his season debut, I’m more than comfortable making him the headline of my DFS lineups.

The monkey is officially off Young’s back after he earned his first PGA Tour victory last season at the Wyndham Championship. He built on that breakthrough win by closing the year with five additional top-15 finishes. His course history at Torrey Pines isn’t particularly strong, he’s made the cut just once in four appearances, finishing T20, but I’m hoping that deters some of the field and keeps his ownership in check.

Young is a bomber off the tee and can be a bit wild at times, but with narrow fairways in play this week, much of the field will be joining him in the rough. Where he separates is with his elite approach play, especially with his long irons, which will be crucial at Torrey Pines. He also brings an elite short game, both around the greens and with the putter.

I think the sky’s the limit for Young this week, and with this being his season debut, some players may hesitate to roster him. That potential hesitation could open the door for those willing to take the shot in DFS.

2025 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 19th

• Off-the-Tee: 31st

• Approach: 129th

• Around the Green: 107th

• Putting: 7th

$9,900 - $9,000 Range: J.J. Spaun $9,400

After a T40 finish at the Sony Open in Hawaii and being surrounded by several more enticing names in this range, I expect Spaun’s ownership to come in at a comfortable level, making him an appealing option this week.

As the reigning U.S. Open champion, Spaun has already proven he can thrive in a grind-it-out environment, and I believe a similar style of golf will be required to contend this week. I’m hoping his underwhelming start to the season keeps people from clicking his name, as this course is a much better fit for the game. Spaun offers a well-rounded skill set highlighted by rock-solid play off the tee and an elite short game. His approach play is above tour average and has been consistently strong over the past year.

My model agrees that this is a spot where Spaun should play well and has legitimate win equity, providing the high-upside profile I’m looking for in DFS.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 69th

• Off-the-Tee: 88th

• Approach: 94th

• Around the Green: 6th

• Putting: 136th

$8,900 - $8,000 Range: Alex Noren $8,400

This is a pure game-theory play at this price point, as I project Noren to come in among the three lowest-owned golfers in this range.

He got off to a disappointing start to the season last week, missing the cut at The American Express. While he struggled mightily off the tee, his iron play and putting were excellent, both of which are the foundation of his game. Given Torrey Pines’ length, many people will naturally gravitate toward bombers off the tee, a profile Noren doesn’t quite fit. However, his accuracy and strengths in other areas can still translate to success here, particularly from a DFS standpoint.

When you combine his talent with the projected low ownership, Noren shapes up as an ideal DFS leverage play this week.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 7th

• Off-the-Tee: 94th

• Approach: 25th

• Around the Green: 159th

• Putting: 3rd

$7,900 - $7,000 Range: Rico Hoey $7,300

Coming off a withdrawal last week at The American Express due to illness, I expect that to scare some people away from Hoey this week, which could keep his ownership in check and make him an appealing option in this price range.

Hoey consistently grades out near the top of my models thanks to his elite play off the tee and on approach, two of the most reliable indicators of week-to-week success. What holds him back is his putting, which has been downright horrific. However, in an event where elite putting isn’t a prerequisite for success, his upside becomes even more intriguing.

There’s no ignoring the fact that Hoey is one of the weakest putters in the field on a regular basis, which is why I passed on him in the outright market. Still, the rest of his game is strong enough to support a high-end finish and solid DFS scoring potential.

2025 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 123rd

• Off-the-Tee: 66th

• Approach: 104th

• Around the Green: 154th

• Putting: 111th

$6,900 - $6,000 Range: Gary Woodland $6,800

If you need to dip into this price range, Gary Woodland stands out as a viable option, especially given that he ranked fairly high in my model this week.

Woodland opened the season with a missed cut at the Sony Open in Hawaii and followed it up with a made cut at The American Express, although he finished near the bottom of the leaderboard. That said, he brings plenty of experience to Torrey Pines, having teed it up here 17 times. He’s recorded five top-20 finishes at this venue, though most of those came earlier in his career and should be taken with a grain of salt.

Woodland remains a bomber off the tee, which checks a major box at Torrey Pines, and he’s still solid with his irons and the putter. His around-the-green play is the biggest concern, as scrambling will be critical this week.

You’re not going to find a complete player in this price range, but Woodland offers enough of the traits I’m looking for to make the cut and provide some weekend DFS value.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 127th

• Off-the-Tee: 31st

• Approach: 137th

• Around the Green: 156th

• Putting: 107th

Gambling Disclaimer

All betting tips, opinions, and suggestions are provided for informational and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or gambling advice.  There is no guarantee of results, and past performance is not indicative of future outcomes.

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