2026 The Open Championship

Introduction

Golf's oldest championship returns to one of its most beloved venues this week as the 154th Open Championship gets underway at Royal Birkdale in Southport. This is the course's eleventh Open, but in a lot of ways it will feel like a brand new test. Architect Tom Mackenzie has overseen the most significant renovation in Birkdale's history since Jordan Spieth lifted the Claret Jug here in 2017, reworking the fifth and seventh holes entirely, retiring the old par 3 fourteenth, shifting the par 5 fifteenth into that slot, and building a brand new, brawny par 3 fifteenth that stretches beyond 240 yards. The bones of Birkdale are still there, the towering dunes, the flat fairways winding through them, the donut bunker on the sixth, but the examination the field faces this week is genuinely different from the one Spieth solved nine years ago. Add in a 156-man field stacked with every player who matters in the sport right now, and you have the ingredients for a compelling, wide-open week. I expect a run at the Claret Jug that rewards precision over pure power, and I think this year's contenders list is deeper and more unpredictable than it's been in years.

Course Breakdown

Royal Birkdale plays to a par of 70 and stretches to 7,223 yards for this year's championship, split evenly between two par 35 nines, a rarity among Open rota courses where both nines return to the clubhouse. What separates Birkdale from a lot of links venues is that the fairways sit relatively flat in valleys between the dunes rather than tumbling and heaving across exposed high ground, which means the challenge here isn't fighting crazy stances and blind shots so much as it's controlling ball flight and trajectory against the wind while threading tee shots through corridors framed by marram grass and gorse. Off the tee, precision matters more than sheer distance. The redesigned fifth is a perfect example, a short, punchy par 4 that tempts big hitters to take on the green directly but punishes anything slightly errant with new fairway bunkering. Elsewhere, holes like the first, third, and eighth demand players find the short grass to have any real look at the green, and missing wide at Birkdale often means playing from thick, gnarly rough that takes speed and stopping power away from approach shots.

The approach play at Birkdale is where the round gets decided. The four par 3s alone, now spaced out beautifully at 219, 151, 186, and the new 241-yard fifteenth, ask players to hit every club in the bag with total command of distance and trajectory. The par 4s aren't much easier. Several of the longer two-shotters, particularly the newly reworked fourteenth with its shifted fairway and perched green well above several deep bunkers, require both a well-placed tee ball and a flighted iron shot that holds a firm, often wind-blown green. The greens themselves aren't wildly contoured like Augusta or a Pinehurst, but they defend themselves through subtlety, run-offs, and firmness. Miss in the wrong spot and the ball can trundle 20 or 30 yards away from the hole, leaving delicate up and downs from tight, sandy lies that reward creativity and feel over raw mechanics.

Wind is the great equalizer at Birkdale, as it is at every Open venue, and this year's redesign has only heightened how much it will factor into scoring. The new fifteenth in particular plays into prevailing wind that makes it nearly impossible to hold with an aerial shot, forcing players to consider low, running approaches even at a major championship. The two par 5s, the sixth and the seventeenth, remain the best true birdie chances on the course, but both can play as three shot holes in a strong breeze, and the balance between aggression and patience on those holes often separates the players near the top of the leaderboard from the pack. Ultimately, Birkdale rewards the golfer who can flight the ball low and control spin in the wind, who putts well on subtly breaking, firm greens, and who has the discipline to accept bogey rather than force a low percentage recovery from the dunes. It's a course built for complete iron players with imagination around the greens, not bombers who rely on overpowering a golf course.

Field Breakdown

The 154th Open field at Royal Birkdale is stacked from top to bottom, and the elite tier reads like a who’s who of the sport right now. Scottie Scheffler headlines as the defending champion and world number one, but he is pushed hard for favorite status by a genuinely stacked group that includes Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Cameron Young, and Justin Rose, all of whom have won multiple times this season or contended deep into major championship Sundays. Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, and Ludvig Aberg round out a group of ball strikers whose games translate cleanly to a firm, wind exposed links setup, while Matt Fitzpatrick arrives with his own major pedigree and a habit of grinding out results at tough venues. This is about as deep a collection of true title contenders as any Open field in recent memory, and narrowing that group down to a handful of realistic winners is genuinely difficult this year.

The second tier is where things get interesting, because it is loaded with players who have either won recently or have specific links credentials that make them dangerous. Tommy Fleetwood, Robert MacIntyre, and Tyrrell Hatton bring the kind of British and Irish comfort with wind and firm turf that should not be underestimated, while Shane Lowry, Brian Harman, and Cameron Smith all arrive with an Open title already on their résumé and know exactly what it takes to get around a proper links test. Jon Rahm and Joaquin Niemann represent the strongest threats from the LIV Golf side, both having shown flashes of major championship contention this season despite the ongoing instability surrounding their league, while Sepp Straka, JJ Spaun, and Wyndham Clark give the field a group of recent signature event and major winners capable of climbing into the mix by Sunday. Mid range value in this tier extends to players like Rickie Fowler, Sungjae Im, and Russell Henley, each of whom has shown enough recent form to be live without carrying the same expectations as the true favorites.

Rounding out the field is a rich veteran and LIV contingent that adds both star power and unpredictability. Past champions Padraig Harrington, Darren Clarke, Stewart Cink, Francesco Molinari, Louis Oosthuizen, Henrik Stenson, and David Duval are all in the field on lifetime or category exemptions, and while none are realistic threats to lift the Claret Jug again, their presence adds texture and storylines to the week. Brooks Koepka’s return to relevance after rejoining the PGA Tour gives him a chance to remind everyone of his major championship pedigree, and the field is rounded out by a large group of DP World Tour regulars, Open Qualifying Series winners, and international qualifiers from Japan, South Africa, and beyond, many of whom will be making their major championship debut at Birkdale. What separates the realistic winners from the rest of this field ultimately comes down to who can control ball flight in the wind, avoid compounding mistakes around the dunes, and putt with confidence on firm, true running greens, and this year’s redesigned Birkdale gives that advantage to complete ball strikers over pure power players in a way that should make for a genuinely unpredictable week.

Tournament History

Royal Birkdale has a scoring history that skews toward the lower end for an Open venue, largely because its fairways are more generous and its terrain less punishing than a Muirfield or a Carnoustie, though the flip side is that calm conditions here can get run over in a hurry, as Branden Grace proved with his record setting 62 in the third round back in 2017. Recent Open winners across all venues have typically finished somewhere between 12 and 20 under par when the weather cooperates, and given how much shorter several of Birkdale's holes now play compared to 2017, I wouldn't be surprised if this year's winning number challenges the lower end of that range if the wind stays quiet, though a proper links blow could push the number back up into single digits under par. History at this course specifically tells us the winner tends to be a complete ball striker who avoids the double bogeys the dunes can produce rather than someone who simply goes low.

Below is a look at the past 10 Open champions, including their winning score relative to par and the course that hosted the championship:

• 2025 - Scottie Scheffler, Royal Portrush (-17)

• 2024 - Xander Schauffele, Royal Troon (-9)

• 2023 - Brian Harman, Royal Liverpool (-13)

• 2022 - Cameron Smith, St Andrews (-20)

• 2021 - Collin Morikawa, Royal St George's (-15)

• 2019 - Shane Lowry, Royal Portrush (-15)

• 2018 - Francesco Molinari, Carnoustie (-8)

• 2017 - Jordan Spieth, Royal Birkdale (-12)

• 2016 - Henrik Stenson, Royal Troon (-20)

• 2015 - Zach Johnson, St Andrews (-15)

Outright Betting Breakdown

Matt Fitzpatrick +2100

My model has Matt Fitzpatrick ranked second in this week's field, and the price feels generous given the body of work he has put together this year. No player on the PGA Tour has more wins in 2026 than Fitzpatrick, who has claimed three titles, the Valspar Championship, the RBC Heritage, and a team victory alongside his brother Alex at the Zurich Classic, while also finishing runner-up at THE PLAYERS Championship in March. He sits fourth in the world and has openly said this stretch of golf, dating back to February, is the best sustained form of his career, eclipsing even his 2022 U.S. Open winning season. He hasn't missed a cut all year and enters this week off a T3 finish at the Genesis Scottish Open, where he told reporters he specifically visited Birkdale ahead of time to prepare, a small but telling detail about how seriously he's treating this championship.

Fitzpatrick's game maps onto Birkdale about as well as anyone in the field, and the model's number two ranking reflects that fit as much as it does his raw form. He ranks third in strokes gained total and first in strokes gained around the green this season, with elite approach numbers that also rank first on tour, exactly the trait needed to hold firm, well-defended greens on a course that punishes anything short of precise iron play. His driving accuracy ranks inside the top 15 on tour, which matters enormously at Birkdale where fairways are relatively flat but unforgiving if missed. The one soft spot in his profile is the putter.

The case for Fitzpatrick this week comes down to a complete tee to green game peaking at exactly the right time, a proven major championship pedigree from his 2022 U.S. Open win, and a level of consistency that few in this field can match. The putting is the one thing that could hold him back from truly running away with a Claret Jug, but on Birkdale's firmer, more subtly breaking links greens, a slightly below average putter matters less than it would at a U.S. Open style setup. I'm comfortable backing him given the current form and the model support, and I'd treat him as one of the sharpest outright plays on the board this week.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Gained Rankings:

• Total: 3rd

• Off-the-Tee: 40th

• Approach: 1st

• Around the Green: 1st

• Putting: 84th

Viktor Hovland +4500

My model has Viktor Hovland ranked tenth this week, a number that captures a player who has had an uneven season on paper but who is trending in exactly the right direction heading into Birkdale. After going winless for over a year, Hovland broke through in dramatic fashion at the Travelers Championship, outlasting Scottie Scheffler in a Monday playoff for his eighth career PGA Tour title. That win came on the back of a Friday round of 61 that would have been the round of the week at almost any other event, and it snapped a stretch that had included missed cuts at both the PGA Championship and the U.S. Open. Hovland has been candid about the frustration of falling short of his own standard this year, but the way he closed out Scheffler down the stretch at TPC River Highlands is the kind of signature win that can carry a player's confidence for weeks.

The skillset picture here is genuinely two-sided, and it explains why the model has him just outside the top tier at tenth rather than among the true favorites. Hovland's approach play remains a real strength, ranking 15th on tour in strokes gained this season, and that kind of iron precision is exactly what Birkdale's firm, well-guarded greens demand. The concerns are off the tee and on the greens, where he ranks 75th in strokes gained off the tee and 77th in strokes gained putting this season, both middling to poor numbers for a player of his caliber. Those are the two areas most exposed by a proper links test, since wayward tee shots at Birkdale get punished by thick rough and subtle green complexes require touch he hasn't consistently shown this year. The Travelers win, however, featured a driver he trusted and a putter that produced when it mattered, so the raw talent to fix both weaknesses in the same week clearly still exists.

I'm willing to take a swing on Hovland at 45/1 given the reminder we just got that his ceiling remains as high as almost anyone's in this field when his ball striking clicks, and a top 10 model ranking backs up the idea that he's live even if he isn't a true co-favorite. The recency of that Travelers win, combined with elite approach play that fits Birkdale's demands, makes him a true contender. If the putter that showed up in Connecticut travels to Southport, he's dangerous.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Gained Rankings:

• Total: 22nd

• Off-the-Tee: 75th

• Approach: 15th

• Around the Green: 35th

• Putting: 77th

Tom Kim +5900

My model has Tom Kim ranked third in the field this week, a number that would have looked almost unthinkable a month ago given how far outside the top 100 in the world he had fallen over the past two years. Kim burst onto the PGA Tour as a teenager, winning three times in his first two full seasons and becoming one of the youngest international players in tour history to win multiple times, but the last two years brought a real and public decline. The model's ranking reflects a player whose underlying game has clearly turned a corner at exactly the right moment.

The recent form here is about as strong a signal as you can ask for heading into a major. Kim finished T3 at the U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills, his best major finish since 2023, and followed that up by winning the Genesis Scottish Open, closing with a bogey-free 6 under 64 to beat Min Woo Lee by two shots at The Renaissance Club. That win was his first PGA Tour title since the fall of 2023 and came on a proper links setup just one week before Birkdale, continuing a trend of Kim performing well specifically in Scottish Open conditions, where he has now finished no worse than 20th in four career starts. Going from a season with only one top 10 finish to a major top 3 and a win in back-to-back majors prep events is about as clean a form spike as you'll find in this field.

Kim's skillset breaks down into one clear strength and two areas that need to keep holding up. His approach play has been a genuine asset all year, ranking in the top 5 on tour in strokes gained, which is the single most important trait for succeeding at Birkdale's firm, well-guarded greens. Off the tee and on the greens is where the season-long numbers get shakier, with Kim ranking outside the top 100 on tour in both strokes gained off the tee and strokes gained putting for most of the year. The Scottish Open win, however, was built on a bogey-free final round and a putter that clearly showed up when it mattered, which suggests the recent surge isn't purely about approach play carrying a flawed all around game, but about multiple parts of his game clicking together at once.

The case for Kim this week comes down to a player peaking at the perfect time, with a major top 3 and a links win in his last two starts, backed by a model that has him third overall. The price is simply too long relative to the current form and the model support to ignore. If the putter and off the tee game that showed up at The Renaissance Club travel to Birkdale, Kim has a real chance to author one of the best comeback stories in recent major championship history.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Gained Rankings:

• Total: 26th

• Off-the-Tee: 99th

• Approach: 5th

• Around the Green: 34th

• Putting: 94th

Akshay Bhatia +13000

My model has Akshay Bhatia ranked 20th in this week's field, and at 130/1 that represents real value for a player with three PGA Tour titles to his name, including a signature event win. Bhatia won the Arnold Palmer Invitational earlier this year in dramatic fashion, trailing Daniel Berger by five strokes with nine holes to play before making four straight birdies on 10 through 13 and eagling the par 5 sixteenth to force a playoff, which he then won on the first extra hole. That kind of closing ability, going low when the moment demands it, is exactly the trait that can carry a player through a long major championship week, and it's the reason the model still has him inside the top 20 even with a spottier stretch since.

Bhatia's season has been a genuine mix of highs and lows. Beyond the Arnold Palmer win, he was T3 at the Phoenix Open, T6 at AT&T Pebble Beach, and T16 and T13 at the Genesis Invitational and THE PLAYERS Championship respectively, a run that had him squarely in the world's top 25. The major championship results, though, have not followed that same trajectory, with a T42 at the Masters and missed cuts at both the PGA Championship and the U.S. Open. He also missed the cut at the Hero Indian Open on a trip tied to his family roots, but the bulk of his domestic form this year has been solid enough to keep him relevant heading into Birkdale despite the recent major struggles.

The skillset here is a real tale of two games. Bhatia's approach play and putting have both been legitimately elite all season, which is a combination that plays well on a course demanding precision into firm greens followed by touch on subtle, true rolling surfaces. The clear weakness is off the tee, where he has ranked outside the top 90 on tour in strokes gained for nearly the entire season, a concerning trait at a venue like Birkdale where missing fairways into thick rough can take speed and control away from his biggest strengths. If his driver is even average for the week, the approach and putting combination gives him a real chance to contend.

At 130/1, Bhatia is a high variance play that I'm comfortable including given the model's 20th place ranking and a signature event win that shows he has the game to close out a big week under pressure. The off the tee issues and recent major championship missed cuts keep this from being anything more than a longshot dart throw, but the approach and putting profile gives him a legitimate path to a surprise finish if the driver cooperates at Birkdale.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Gained Rankings:

• Total: 11th

• Off-the-Tee: 116th

• Approach: 44th

• Around the Green: 28th

• Putting: 2nd

My outright card is built around a simple target: a minimum 10x return on my unit. In practice, that means I spread one total unit across all my selections for the week, structured so that any single winner returns at least 10 units. This means I only need to hit one outright in ten tournaments to break even. It keeps me honest about the odds I'm willing to accept and prevents me from chasing value at prices that don't justify the risk.

That said, this is my system, and it works for my bankroll and my risk tolerance. Yours may look completely different, and it should. Figure out what return threshold makes sense for you, how many units you're comfortable putting at risk in a given week, and build from there. The best betting system is the one you can stick to consistently, not the one that sounds best on paper.

Daily Fantasy Sports Breakdown

As for all the majors, I write up two players per price range this week to give you more DFS flexibility across each salary tier.

$10,000+ Price Range: Scottie Scheffler $13,300

There is a case to be made that Scottie Scheffler is underpriced at $13,300 given that he is still the best player in the world and the defending Open champion, having romped to victory at Portrush a year ago. What makes him fascinating for this week specifically is the redesigned nature of Royal Birkdale. Scheffler's biggest strength continues to be tee to green precision, and a golf course that punishes loose drives and rewards command of trajectory into firm, contoured greens sets up about as well for him as any style of course could. He has made the cut in all 14 starts this season and has nine top 10 finishes, which speaks to a level of consistency that almost nobody else in the field can match.

Scheffler's 2026 season has been an interesting study in the gap between narrative and substance. He has only one win, at The American Express back in January, but he has racked up four runner-up finishes and eight top-four finishes in 13 stroke play events, including three straight solo seconds at the Masters, RBC Heritage, and Cadillac Championship before a heartbreaking playoff loss to Viktor Hovland at the Travelers Championship. His ball striking remains elite, and by his own account his game was rounding into its best form of the year in that Travelers loss, which is an ominous sign for the rest of the field heading into Birkdale.

For cash games, Scheffler is about as safe a play as exists in DFS golf given his floor of top 25 finishes in nearly every single start this season. For GPP, the concern is obvious: at $13,300 he eats up a huge chunk of salary and will likely carry heavy ownership given his form and status as defending champion, which limits the leverage he provides. I still view him as a strong building block in cash formats and a fine, if chalky, piece in tournament lineups given how difficult it will be for the field to simply out execute him on a golf course built for precision.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Gained Rankings:

• Total: 1st

• Off-the-Tee: 4th

• Approach: 13th

• Around the Green: 5th

• Putting: 12th

$10,000+ Price Range: Tommy Fleetwood $10,500

Tommy Fleetwood is a logical fit at Birkdale for reasons that go well beyond his English roots. He has posted six top 10s already in 2026, including a T5 finish at the Truist Championship at Quail Hollow, a signature event where he gained strokes across the board and ranked sixth in the field in approach play. Fleetwood's ball striking profile, controlled ball flight, strong iron play, and a short game that has produced above-average strokes gained around the green over his last five events, translates cleanly to a firm, wind-exposed links setup where flighting the ball and avoiding compounding mistakes around the dunes matter more than bombing drives.

The concerning piece of Fleetwood's profile continues to be the putter. Links greens tend to run true and defend themselves more through positioning than pure speed and break reading, which can mask a shakier putting season somewhat, but it remains the one obvious hole in an otherwise complete game. He has also historically underperformed at majors relative to his regular tour form, something he has openly acknowledged in the past, which is worth factoring into GPP construction.

At $10,500, Fleetwood offers a blend of course fit and current form that should keep his ownership moderate to high in both cash and tournament formats. I like him best as a top of your lineup piece in cash games given the consistency of his ball striking this year, while acknowledging the putter is the swing factor that will determine whether he contends or simply cashes.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Gained Rankings:

• Total: 4th

• Off-the-Tee: 20th

• Approach: 38th

• Around the Green: 3rd

• Putting: 61st

$9,900 - $9,000 Price Range: Justin Rose $9,100

Justin Rose brings a rare combination of experience and current form into this week at $9,100. His 2026 season has been a story of two extremes: a dominant seven-shot wire-to-wire win at the Farmers Insurance Open in January, sandwiched between stretches of missed cuts and a runner-up finish at the Masters. What stands out for Birkdale specifically is his approach play, an important trait on a course where hitting the correct portion of firm, contoured greens is often the difference between a two-putt par and a three-putt bogey.

Rose's recent form has cooled somewhat, with a T65 at the PGA Championship and a T45 the following week, though he did rebound with a T10 at the Memorial and a T11 at the U.S. Open, showing he can still turn it on for the tournaments that matter most. At 45 years old, Rose's experience on links golf specifically cannot be overstated, and his creativity around greens with firm run-offs, a Birkdale staple, has always been a hallmark of his game even in seasons where his overall form has been inconsistent.

For DFS purposes, Rose fits best as a GPP play given the swingy nature of his season, offering considerable upside relative to his salary if his ball striking clicks the way it did at Torrey Pines in January. I would be more hesitant to lean on him in cash formats given the volatility, but the course fit and major championship pedigree make him a name worth rostering in tournament formats at this price point.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Gained Rankings:

• Total: 41st

• Off-the-Tee: 89th

• Approach: 15th

• Around the Green: 73rd

• Putting: 70th

$9,900 - $9,000 Price Range: Cameron Young $9,000

Cameron Young is priced at a relative discount given that he is playing arguably the best golf of anyone in the field not named Scottie Scheffler. Young has three wins this season, including THE PLAYERS Championship in March and a dominant wire-to-wire, six-shot victory at the Cadillac Championship in May where he posted 19 under and left the rest of the field, including Scheffler, in his rearview mirror. He has also climbed to world number 3, and his length combined with an increasingly reliable iron game makes him a threat on essentially any style of golf course, including a lengthened, wind-exposed Birkdale.

What makes Young particularly interesting for this week is that Birkdale has historically rewarded players who can control flight and trajectory in the wind, and Young's raw power gives him a margin for error that shorter hitters simply do not have off the tee, while his continued improvement with the irons has removed the erratic tendencies that used to hold him back in his early tour career. He has made the cut in every single start this season, a testament to how much more complete his game has become.

At $9,000, Young offers a rare combination of star-level ceiling and a price tag that will not crush your salary cap, which should make him a popular play across both cash and GPP formats this week. I have no hesitation rostering him as a core piece given the form, and while it means fading some ownership equity in tournament formats, the underlying game simply supports the price.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Gained Rankings:

• Total: 9th

• Off-the-Tee: 9th

• Approach: 22nd

• Around the Green: 29th

• Putting: 84th

$8,900 - $8,000 Price Range: Bryson Dechambeau $8,400

Bryson DeChambeau's season has been a genuine rollercoaster, and that volatility is exactly what makes him a fascinating piece at $8,400. He opened 2026 with back-to-back LIV Golf wins in Singapore and South Africa, a run that had him positioned as one of the most dangerous players in the world heading into the majors. Since then, he has missed the cut at the Masters, the PGA Championship, and the U.S. Open, an alarming stretch for a two-time major champion who was, not that long ago, one of the most consistent performers on the biggest stages in golf.

DeChambeau has been candid about his struggles, admitting publicly that he might miss all four major cuts this year and pointing to swing and putting inconsistencies rather than external distractions as the root cause, despite the ongoing turmoil surrounding LIV Golf's financial future. He has not competed since the U.S. Open, using the weeks off to specifically prepare for Birkdale, which could mean he arrives fresh, or could mean he arrives having not found real answers to what has gone wrong. As a LIV Golf player, DeChambeau's underlying data is limited relative to the rest of this field, since he does not have current PGA Tour strokes gained statistics to lean on.

Given the swings in form, DeChambeau is a pure GPP dart throw at this price point rather than a cash game play. The talent and raw power are obviously still there, evidenced by his LIV wins earlier in the year, but the major championship results this season are too concerning to trust him in a cash lineup. If he finds something in the two weeks since the U.S. Open, the upside is enormous given his history at this event and his overall major championship pedigree.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Gained Rankings:

• Total: N/A

• Off-the-Tee: N/A

• Approach: N/A

• Around the Green: N/A

• Putting: N/A

$8,900 - $8,000 Price Range: Robert MacIntyre $8,000

Robert MacIntyre arrives at his native links with a season that has been defined by contrasts, flashes of real quality mixed with major championship frustration. The Scotsman was T4 at THE PLAYERS Championship in March and T2 at the Valero Texas Open in April, results that place him firmly among the better ball strikers in the world right now, but the majors have not gone his way in 2026. He missed the cut at both the Masters and the PGA Championship, and while he did make the cut at the U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills, a tricky Friday finish and a windswept 73 in the third round left him grinding just to play for position, and he closed with a level par 70 to finish seven over for the week. He is also coming off being part of Europe’s winning 2025 Ryder Cup team and followed that up by winning the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship on home soil, so his comfort with British crowds and British conditions is about as high as it gets in this field even if his major championship results this year have not matched that pedigree.

MacIntyre’s strengths line up nicely with what Birkdale demands. He ranks highly on tour in strokes gained off the tee this season and has been especially sharp with the putter, both traits that travel well to firm, true rolling links greens. The one clear soft spot in his profile has been approach play, which is a real concern on a course that punishes anything short of precise iron play into firm, well defended greens, and it lines up with the frustration he voiced at Shinnecock about not being able to control his ball flight in tough, changing conditions.

Given the U.S. Open disappointment, MacIntyre is a slightly riskier proposition than his salary might suggest at first glance, but the emotional lift of playing a major on home soil, combined with his elite off the tee and putting numbers, still gives him a real chance to contend if the approach play sharpens up even modestly. I’d lean toward using him more in GPP formats than as a cash game

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Gained Rankings:

• Total: 14th

• Off-the-Tee: 20th

• Approach: 99th

• Around the Green: 70th

• Putting: 9th

$7,900 - $7,000 Price Range: Brooks Koepka $7,600

Brooks Koepka's return to relevance is one of the more interesting storylines of the year. After leaving LIV Golf at the end of 2025, he rejoined the PGA Tour through the Returning Member Program, which came with real restrictions, including a fine, no signature event access, and no FedEx Cup points, but also came with a reminder that Koepka's résumé includes five major championships and a track record of getting up for the biggest weeks on the calendar. His T9 at the Cognizant Classic was his first tour top 10 since 2022, and he showed additional signs of life with a strong third round 64 at the Myrtle Beach Classic and a showing in the mix during the early rounds of the PGA Championship.

What makes Koepka dangerous is that his history in majors specifically has always outpaced his week to week form on regular tour stops, something he has acknowledged himself in the past. A big, physical, wind exposed golf course like Birkdale suits a player who has built his major championship legacy on a willingness to play aggressively when the moment calls for it. The concern is sample size, since his current PGA Tour form is still a relatively small window after years away from full time tour competition.

At $7,600, Koepka is a boom or bust GPP consideration rather than a cash play given the inconsistency of his results since returning to the tour. If the major championship version of Koepka shows up, the salary relief he provides relative to his ceiling is significant, but I would not lean on him in formats where I need a reliable floor.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Gained Rankings:

• Total: 28th

• Off-the-Tee: 50th

• Approach: 8th

• Around the Green: 44th

• Putting: 111th

$7,900 - $7,000 Price Range: Joaquin Niemann $7,300

Joaquin Niemann is the most talented player in this salary range by a wide margin, and his path into this year's Open Championship, earning the exemption as the leading LIV Golf player not otherwise exempt following LIV Golf Andalucia, tells you everything about how dominant his LIV Golf career has become. He is the league's all time leader with eight individual titles after outlasting Talor Gooch in a playoff at LIV Golf Korea, and his off the tee numbers there were video game good, leading the field in strokes gained off the tee while also ranking near the top in putting.

Niemann's major championship résumé remains a work in progress relative to his talent level. He finished T7 at this year's U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills, but that result came despite a disastrous first round 78 that included a septuple bogey 11 on the sixth hole and a two stroke penalty for throwing a club in frustration. It was a reminder that his ceiling is exceptionally high, evidenced by his 65 and 66 the rest of the way, but that his week to week consistency, even in a strong season, can be undone by a single blow up hole.

For DFS purposes, Niemann is a high ceiling GPP option given his ball striking ability and his demonstrated capacity to go extremely low over a single round. The volatility, however, including the very public meltdown at the U.S. Open, makes him a difficult fit for cash games where a disaster hole can sink an entire lineup.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Gained Rankings:

• Total: N/A

• Off-the-Tee: N/A

• Approach: N/A

• Around the Green: N/A

• Putting: N/A

$6,900 - $6,000 Price Range: Rickie Fowler $6,500

Rickie Fowler's 2026 season has been one of the more encouraging comeback stories on tour, and his price of $6,500 looks like a genuine discount given his recent trajectory. He has posted top 10 finishes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the Cadillac Championship, and the RBC Heritage, then followed that up with a T2 at the Truist Championship at Quail Hollow, a course where he won his first PGA Tour title back in 2012. That stretch marked his first consecutive top 10s since the opening events of last year's FedEx Cup Playoffs, and it reignited real conversation about whether the old, top 5 in the world version of Fowler is on his way back.

Fowler's Birkdale history specifically is worth noting. He finished T22 here in 2017, the last time the Open was contested at this course, and he was T14 at last year's Open at Portrush, showing that his game has consistently traveled well to links golf even during stretches when his form elsewhere has been shaky. His more recent results have cooled off, including a T60 at the PGA Championship and a missed cut at the U.S. Open, but he rebounded with a strong week at the John Deere Classic that included a third round 63.

Given the salary discount relative to his season long form and specific track record at this venue, Fowler is a strong GPP value play and a reasonable cash game consideration for those looking to save salary elsewhere. The recent dip in results after his Truist runner up is worth monitoring, but the underlying signs of a player rounding back into form are hard to ignore at this price.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Gained Rankings:

• Total: 45th

• Off-the-Tee: 45th

• Approach: 76th

• Around the Green: 97th

• Putting: 42nd

$6,900 - $6,000 Price Range: Matt Wallace $6,300

Matt Wallace is a streaky, boom or bust type at $6,300 who has flashed real signs of life in recent months without putting together the sustained consistency needed to trust him as anything more than a value dart throw. He carded a bogey free 66 at the Cadillac Championship in May that led the field in strokes gained putting for the day, and he has shown similar flashes on the DP World Tour with a top 10 surge built on strong ball striking and par 4 scoring. Wallace has previously finished T3 at the PGA Championship back in 2019 and has a track record of performing well in major championship conditions specifically, even when his overall season has been up and down.

The concerns with Wallace are evident in his overall 2026 numbers, with only one top 10 finish on the PGA Tour this season and a FedEx Cup standing that has kept him firmly on the bubble for status. His most recent Open Championship appearance, a T45 finish at Portrush last year, showed a player capable of hanging around the golf course without truly contending. His approach play has been inconsistent week to week, though his putting has shown flashes of real quality when he gets the flat stick working.

At this salary, Wallace is purely a GPP consideration where his streaky ball striking and putting could produce a surprise result at a fraction of the cost of the stars above him. I would stay away from him in cash formats given the inconsistency, but as a low-owned dart throw in tournament formats, the upside is real if his putter gets hot on Birkdale's firm, true greens.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Gained Rankings:

• Total: 58th

• Off-the-Tee: 94th

• Approach: 37th

• Around the Green: 56th

• Putting: 95th

$5,900 - $5,000 Price Range: John Parry $5,800

John Parry is a classic deep value, high variance DFS play who earned his place in this field through a strong season on the DP World Tour, qualifying via an 11th place finish on the Race to Dubai rankings. Parry is not a household name in American golf coverage, but he has been a consistent, professional presence on the European circuit for years, and qualifying for a major on the strength of a full season's body of work rather than a single hot week speaks to a level of week to week competence that should not be dismissed at this salary.

As an Englishman who has spent his career playing British and European links style golf, Parry's familiarity with the wind, the firm turf, and the general demands of an Open Championship setup gives him a small edge over some of the lesser-known Americans in the field who may be seeing true links conditions for the first time this year. That said, his ceiling at the very top of a major championship leaderboard is limited relative to the stars in this field, and his primary value in DFS lies in simply making the cut and picking up incremental salary relief points along the way.

Parry is a pure salary-saving GPP piece at $5,800, the type of player rostered specifically to free up cap space for a star like Scheffler elsewhere in a lineup. He is not a player I would build a lineup around, but as a floor piece in a differentiated build, his experience with true links conditions gives him a puncher's chance to outperform his salary.

2026 DP World Tour Strokes Gained Rankings:

• Total: 8th

• Off-the-Tee: 38th

• Approach: 6th

• Around the Green: 40th

• Putting: 82nd

$5,900 - $5,000 Price Range: Kota Kaneko $5,400

Kota Kaneko is the deepest value play in this week's DFS pool, and also one of the more intriguing storylines in the field. The 23 year old Japanese golfer earned his spot at Birkdale by finishing inside the top five on the International Federation Ranking List, capping off a breakout stretch that included his maiden DP World Tour title at the Austrian Alpine Open, a runner up finish at the Soudal Open, and a strong debut season on tour after topping the Japan Golf Tour money list in 2025. He has recorded three top 10 finishes on the DP World Tour already this season, evidence that his game has traveled well outside of Japan.

Kaneko's game is still developing at the highest level, and his lone major championship appearance so far, a missed cut at the PGA Championship at Aronimink, is a reminder that the step up in class and pressure at a major is significant for a player this new to the world stage. His underlying results on the DP World Tour, however, including three consecutive rounds of 65 during his Austrian Alpine Open win, point to a talented ball striker capable of going low in a hurry if his game clicks in Southport.

At $5,400, Kaneko is a pure tournament format lottery ticket, rostered almost exclusively for salary relief and extreme ceiling in large field GPPs. I would not include him in cash lineups given the lack of major championship experience, but for those chasing differentiation in tournament formats, his recent European form makes him a name worth a speculative look.

2026 DP World Tour Strokes Gained Rankings:

• Total: 26th

• Off-the-Tee: 121st

• Approach: 63rd

• Around the Green: 112th

• Putting: 2nd

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