Out of the Rough: U.S. Open (2026)
- Nate (@NateOoTR)

- Jun 14
- 9 min read
Golf’s toughest challenge returns to take center stage this week as the U.S. Open heads to the storied Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Tuckahoe, New York.
This year marks the sixth time that Shinnecock Hills has hosted the U.S. Open. It most recently hosted in 2018 and has hosted a total of five times since 1986.
Shinnecock Hills hosted the second ever U.S. Open in 1896 as well.
Brooks Koepka was the last golfer to hoist the coveted U.S. Open Championship Trophy at Shinnecock Hills back in 2018. Before Koepka, Retief Goosen won here in 2004, Corey Pavin in 1995 and Raymond Floyd in 1986.
The U.S. Open is arguably my favorite weekend of the season as a fan of the sport with the threat of golfers exploding on every shot. The turmoil and chaos that can ensue here is what makes the U.S. Open, the toughest challenge in the sport.
This year marks the 126th playing of the U.S. Open. First played in 1895, it is the second longest standing golf tournament in the World to just The Open Championship.
The Field
Everyone in the World of golf was dreaming of a tee-time at Shinnecock Hills on June 18th.
From defending champion J.J. Spaun to 17-year-old Miles Russell, every golfer took a different route to get to Shinnecock Hills.
As a majority of the field was fully exempt into this week’s event, those not receiving exemption had to play through final qualifiers, ending in ‘Golf’s Longest Day’ to get here.
The last time a final qualifier won this event was Lucas Glover in 2009.
Of course, all eyes will be on World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler this week who can become just the seventh golfer in history to complete the career grand slam with a victory. It is worth noting that the final round will be played on his 30th birthday and now as a father of two, on Father’s Day.
World No. 2 Rory McIlroy and defending back-to-back Masters Tournament Champion will look to play spoiler to Scheffler’s chance at history. McIlroy is seeking his second U.S. Open title. He claimed his maiden major title in 2011 at Congressional Country Club.
As the future of LIV Golf remains in limbo, a total of 13 golfers will head to New York to represent the tour. Bryson Dechambeau (2024) and Jon Rahm (2021) are two recent U.S. Open winners will be teeing it up this week for LIV.
Former U.S. Open champions playing this week include Spaun (2025,) DeChambeau (2024 and 2020,) Wyndham Clark (2023,) Matt Fitzpatrick (2022), Rahm (2021,) Gary Woodland (2019,) Koepka (2018 and 2017,) Dustin Johnson (2016,) Jordan Spieth (2015,) Justin Rose (2013,) McIlroy (2011) and Graeme McDowell (2010.)
In all, qualifying marks include past ten U.S. Open champions, top ten-plus-ties from the 2025 U.S. Open, the 2025 U.S. Senior Open Champion, 2025 U.S. Amateur champion and runner-up, 2025 U.S. Junior Amateur champion, 2025 U.S. Mid-Amateur champion, past five Masters champions, past five PGA champions, past five The Open champions, the 2025 BMW PGA Championship winner, the 2025 Tour Championship field, top five in the 2026 FedExCup standings not already exempt on May 18th, the 2025 Korn Ferry Tour points leader, top two from the 2025 Race to Dubai standings not already exempt on May 18th, top player from the 2026 Race to Dubai standings not already exempt on May 18th, 2025 British Amateaur Winner, 2025 Mark H. McCormack Medal winner, 2026 NCAA Championship winner, 2026 Latin America Amateaur winner, top 60 within the OWGR as of May 18th, top player from the top three within the final 2025 LIV Golf standings as of May 18th, top player from the top three within the 2026 LIV Golf standings as of May 18th and those who qualified via final qualifying.
The Course
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club is regarded as one of the ‘founding fathers’ of American golf, which is fitting as America celebrates its 250th birthday this year. It too served as the first venues to have its members incorporate their club in 1891.
Over the years, the course expanded throughout the property but the course we will see played this week was first played in 1931 and was designed under the guidance of architect William Flynn. Flynn was known for routing golf courses through natural terrain while bringing prevailing wind into play.
It will play as a par-70 at 7,440 yards this week.
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club can best be described as a tumbling links-like course with sections of tall fescue and sage across the front nine. The back nine features a much steeper layout with sets of sand dunes.
Off-the-tee golfers will be welcomed by wider-than-average fairways in terms of USGA and U.S. Open layouts. They are set at an average width of 48-yards.
However, those with the length to land their ball in small, level standing areas within these fairways will see an advantage as most of the fairways sit on unlevel ground.
Of course, missing the fairways will prove penal with the tall fescue and sage grasses as well as sweeping sand dunes that are all set to serve as lines of defense this week.
From there, golfers will play into crowned and slopping Poa annua greens that can simply reject any errant or imprecise shot. The landing areas to hold these greens are both small and exact.
If golfers are to miss the greens, Shinnecock Hills is known to have some of the most punishing and complex short-game environments in the world of golf.
Around-the-greens, golfers will face steep false fronts, extremely close-mown runoff-areas and deep bunkers. The bunkers are some of the most difficult that the world’s best golfers will play all season long. They feature turf faces and missed-shots are funneled into them.
It’s needless to say that any recovery shot will have a golfer’s full attention and will need to be incredibly delicate.
Through all of the challenges we’ve laid out already, they don’t end there.
Mother nature will have its say in how this golf course is played this week. As previously mentioned, Flynn routed the course to bring the winds into play.
Played along the bordering Peconic Bay and the nearby Atlantic Ocean, coastal winds are a constant here at Shinnecock Hills. Holes play in different directions from hole-to-hole, demanding a different approach with the wind direction on each shot.
Additionally, there are multiple instances of triangular-laid our holes, meaning for three consecutive holes, winds will play in different directions.
Being one of the most historic, recognizable and significant golf courses in the United States, there are no exact ‘signature holes’ featured this week.
The 187-yard par-three seventh could be deemed a signature hole as it features a narrow green that angles diagonally from right-to-left.
At the end of the day, Shinnecock Hills will show its teeth on every single shot. Any hopeful winner will need to minimize mistakes and take a patient approach across all four rounds.
In the end, getting the ball in the bottom of the cup on any hole this week will be a challenge in itself.
The Weather
As of the time of writing this, Thursday is currently calling for a 60-percent chance of an afternoon thunderstorm. Friday is calling for just a 25-percent chance of precipitation as Saturday calls for a zero-percent chance and Sunday a ten-percent chance. Temperatures will begin the week at 84-degrees on Thursday before dipping to 81-degrees on Friday. Temperatures will bounce up to 83-degrees on Saturday before finishing the week at 82-degrees on Sunday. Winds are set for 14 miles-per-hour coming out of the south on Thursday. Winds will turn from the west on Friday and are set at 13 miles-per-hour. Winds will turn slightly coming out of the northwest for both Saturday and Sunday. Saturday is calling for the highest winds at 15 miles-per-hour as Sunday is calling for 12 miles-per-hour winds.
Key Stats
Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: APP)
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: OTT)
Average Driving Distance
Strokes Gained: Putting on Poa annua (SG: PUTT Poa annua)
Proximity to the hole from 100-to-150 yards
Strokes Gained: Around the Green (SG: ATG)
Scrambling / Scrambling from the Rough / Scrambling from the Sand
Three Putt Avoidance
Bogey Avoidance
Bounce Back
Par 4 Average Scoring
Sand Saves Percentage’
Betting Card
Xander Schauffele (+2200)
Schauffele has the chance to take one step closer to golf immortality with a victory this week. Claiming the U.S. Open would place Schauffele just the Masters Tournaments shy of the career grand slam. Schauffele is currently 12th on Tour in scrambling, 14th in SG: OTT, 17th in both average driving distance and par-four average scoring, 27th in SG: APP, 52nd in bounce back, 60th in sand saves percentage, 70th in SG: PUTT Poa and 113th in both proximity to the hole from 125-250 yards and three-putt avoidance. He last played the Memorial Tournament where he placed 29th. Prior to that he placed seventh at the PGA Championship, 60th at the Truist Championship, 12th at the RBC Heritage, ninth at the Masters Tournament, fourth at the Valspar Championship and third at THE PLAYERS Tournament. He placed 12th at Oakmont a season ago. He also placed seventh in 2024 Pinehurst, tenth in 2023 at Los Angeles Country Club, 14th in 2022 as The Country Club, seventh in 2021 at Torrey Pines and fifth in 2020 at Winged Foot.
Sam Burns (+4000)
Burns will look to avenge the late water-ball ruling at Oakmont a season ago that could have ultimately cost him the U.S. Open trophy. He ended up placing seventh a season ago. Prior to that he was ninth in 2024, 32nd in 2023, 27th in 2022 and missed the cut in 2021 at the U.S. Open. He placed 20th last week at the RBC Canadian Open and fourth a week prior at the Memorial Tournament. He also placed 26th at the PGA Championship, 37th at the Truist Championship, 38th at the Cadillac Championship, 16th at the RBC Heritage, seventh at the Masters Tournaments, 21st at the Texas Children’s Houston Open and 13th at THE PLAYERS Championship. Burns is currently fourth on Tour in par-four average scoring, 11th in SG: PUTT Poa, 19th in average driving distance, 21st in three-putt avoidance, 47th in sand saves percentage, 48th in bounce back, 52nd in SG: OTT, 72nd in SG: APP, 77th in proximity to the hole from 100-150 yards and 106th in SG: ATG.
Russell Henley (+4500)
We are just three weeks removed of Henley chasing down the leaders and stealing the Charles Schwab Challenge in impressive fashion. Ridding that high, he’ll look to claim his maiden major title this week. He most recently played the Memorial Tournament where he placed 22nd. He won the Charles Schwab Challenge prior to that and missed the cut at the PGA Championship. He also placed 49th at the Cadillac Championship, 25th at the RBC Heritage and third at the Masters Tournament. He is currently first on Tour in scrambling, tenth in par-four average scoring, 28th in sand saves percentage, 43rd in SG: OTT, 45th in three-putt avoidance, 48th in SG: ATG, 51st in SG: APP, 55th in SG: PUTT Poa, 65th in bounce back and 146th in average driving distance. He placed tenth a season ago at Oakmont. Prior to that he placed seventh in 2024, 14th in 2023, missed the cut in 2022 and placed 13th in 2021.
Min Woo Lee (+9000)
I cannot stop betting Lee with the value we continue to get for him each and every week. He is currently ninth on Tour in average driving distance, 12th in SG: OTT, 17th in par-four average scoring, 21st in SG: ATG, 23rd in scrambling, 25th in sand saves percentage, 40th in SG: PUTT Poa, 74th in SG: APP, 82nd in bounce back, 91st on proximity to the hole from 100-150 yards and 110th in three-putt avoidance. He missed the cut a season ago at the U.S. Open but placed 21st in 2024, fifth in 2023 and 27th in 2022. He last played the Memorial Tournament where he missed the cut but prior to that placed 18th at the PGA Championship, 14th at the Truist Championship and 18th at the Cadillac Championship.
Adam Scott (+11000)
Scott has been great at the U.S. Open as of late. He placed 12th a season ago at Oakmont, 32nd in 2024, missed the cut in 2023, placed 14th in 2022, 35th in 2021 and 38th in 2020. He placed 12th in his latest outing at the Memorial Tournament. Prior to that he missed the cut at the PGA Championship but placed 24th at the Truist Championship, fourth at the Cadillac Championship, 24th at the Masters Tournament and 21st at the Texas Children’s Houston Open. He is currently first on Tour in SG: APP, eighth in bounce back, 25th in average driving distance, 36th in SG: OTT, 41st in scrambling, 60th in par-four average scoring, 82nd in proximity to the hole from 100-150 yards, 89th in sand saves percentage, 91st in SG: ATG, 110th in SG: PUTT Poa and 138th in three-putt avoidance.
Ryan Fox (+25000)
This is simply an insane number for Fox. He is currently tenth on Tour in par-four average scoring, 17th in SG: PUTT Poa, 28th in average driving distance, 34th in SG: OTT, 36th in proximity to the hole from 100-150 yards, 52nd in scrambling, 69th in bounce back, 71st in SG: APP, 79th in SG: ATG and 95th in sand saves percentage. Fox placed eighth last week at the RBC Canadian Open. Prior to that he placed 27th at the Memorial Tournament, 35th at the PGA Championship, 67th at the Truist Championship, 30th at the Cadillac Championship and 16th at the RBC Heritage. He placed 19th last season at the U.S. Open. He also placed 56th in 2024, 43rd in 2023 and missed the cut in both 2022 and 2020.
2025 Betting Card
Jon Rahm (+1400) - T7th
Patrick Cantlay (+5000) - MC
Sepp Straka (+5000) - MC
Hideki Matsuyama (+7000) - T42nd
Keegan Bradley (+10000) - T33rd
Sam Stevens (+25000) - T23rd
2024 Betting Card
Xander Schauffele (+1200) - 3u
Ludvig Aberg (+2200) - 2u
Justin Thomas (+4500) - 1u
Hideki Matsuyama (+5500) - 1u
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+18000) - 1u
2023 Betting Card
Viktor Hovland (+1700) - T7th
Tyrrell Hatton (+3400) - T26th
Tony Finau (+3700) - T3rd
Jason Day (+4800) - MC
Justin Rose (+4800) - MC
Si Woo Kim (+7500) - T32nd
Tom Kim (+13000) - T26th






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