2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Introduction

The PGA Tour returns to California for the first elevated event of the season. A star-studded field and elevated stakes make this an important early stop on the schedule. On a classic West Coast layout with little room to hide, elite ball-striking and sharp course management will be critical this week.

Course Breakdown, Tournament History & Early Weather Forecast

This week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am takes place along California’s iconic Monterey Peninsula. As a Signature Event, it features a limited field and no 36-hole cut, using a two-course rotation instead of the three-course setup seen in recent years. Amateurs will play alongside the professionals during the first two rounds at Spyglass Hill Golf Course, before the professionals return exclusively to Pebble Beach Golf Links for the weekend.

Spyglass Hill, which hosts the opening two rounds, is a par 72 measuring 7,071 yards. Designed by Robert Trent Jones Sr. and opened in 1966. The course opens with a demanding stretch through coastal dunes before turning inland to tree-lined parkland holes that place a premium on precision and tee-to-green control. Narrow fairways, strategically placed bunkers, and elevated greens require careful shot-making, making accuracy just as important as distance.

Pebble Beach Golf Links, which hosts the final two rounds, is a par 72 measuring 6,989 yards. Designed by Jack Neville and Douglas Grant and opened in 1919, it is one of the shortest venues on Tour yet remains among the most demanding. Dramatic coastal exposure, narrow fairways, and small greens place a premium on precision over power, with the closing stretch standing as one of the most iconic in all of golf.

The greens across both courses are Poa annua, which can become bumpy as the day progresses. Fairways are typically generous, but coastal conditions and thick rough can quickly penalize imprecision. While distance is less important than most weeks, approach play, proximity with short and mid-irons, and scrambling are critical, particularly at Pebble Beach where missed greens are common. Players who control trajectory in the wind and remain patient tend to separate as the week progresses.

Pebble Beach Golf Links has hosted this event for decades, with recent winners and their scores to par listed below:

• 2025 - Rory McIlroy (-21) 

• 2024 - Wyndham Clark (-17) 

• 2023 - Justin Rose (-18) 

• 2022 - Tom Hoge (-19)

• 2021 - Daniel Berger (-18) 

• 2020 - Nick Taylor (-19)

• 2019 - Phil Mickelson (-19) 

• 2018 - Ted Potter Jr. (-17)

• 2017 - Jordan Spieth (-19) 

• 2016 - Vaughn Taylor (-17)

Overall, Pebble Beach rewards elite iron play, creativity around the greens, and mental discipline, with far less emphasis on distance. While winning scores can reach the high-teens under par, conditions often dictate volatility, and avoiding big numbers is just as important as converting birdie chances.

The early forecast for the week looks favorable. Expect cool but mostly clear coastal conditions, with light to moderate winds typical of the Monterey Peninsula. Wind remains the primary variable, but if it stays manageable, players should have opportunities to score, particularly during the first two rounds before the field returns to Pebble Beach for the weekend.

Field Breakdown

We have a strong field this week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, featuring several of the Official World Golf Ranking’s current top-25 players: Scottie Scheffler (#1), Rory McIlroy (#2), Justin Rose (#3), Tommy Fleetwood (#4), Russell Henley (#5), Robert MacIntyre (#6), J.J. Spaun (#7), Xander Schauffele (#8), Ben Griffin (#9), Harris English (#11), Sepp Straka (#12), Alex Noren (#13), Hideki Matsuyama (#14), Keegan Bradley (#15), Viktor Hovland (#16), Collin Morikawa (#18), Ludvig Åberg (#19), Cameron Young (#20), Maverick McNealy (#21), Ryan Gerard (#23), and Matt Fitzpatrick (#24).

In addition to those ranked inside the top 25, the field includes a strong supporting cast. Jordan Spieth returns to one of his favorite venues on the PGA Tour, while Wyndham Clark, Corey Conners, Russell Henley, Shane Lowry, Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler, Jason Day, Si Woo Kim, Keegan Bradley, and Chris Gotterup are all set to tee it up this week in Monterey.

Several past AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am champions are also set to compete this week, including Rory McIlroy (2025), Wyndham Clark (2024), Justin Rose (2023), Tom Hoge (2022), and Daniel Berger (2021). Course history has long proven meaningful at Pebble Beach, where experience managing the small greens, coastal winds, and strategy across multiple courses often translates to repeat success.

With elite talent throughout the field and a classic setup that rewards precision, creativity, and patience, the stage is set for a compelling week along the Monterey Peninsula at one of the most iconic venues in professional golf.

Outright Betting Breakdown

Russell Henley +3100

Henley ranks sixth in my model this week and was one of the first names that came to mind when thinking about the ideal profile for success at Pebble Beach.

He’s opened the season with a T19 at the Sony Open in Hawaii and a T8 at The American Express. That form pairs nicely with his course history at Pebble Beach, where he’s posted three top-15 finishes, including a T5 at this event last year.

The only real weakness in Henley’s profile is distance off the tee, which isn’t a concern at this venue. He’s accurate off the tee, elite with his irons, and possesses a top-tier short game both around the greens and with the putter. What really stood out to me this week was just how sharp his ball-striking has been through his first two starts of the 2026 season.

Henley has already proven he can win big events, and I think this could be the week he adds the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am trophy to his collection.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 18th

• Off-the-Tee: 112th

• Approach: 5th

• Around the Green: 96th

• Putting: 70th

Matt Fitzpatrick +4000

Fitzpatrick checks in at 36th in my model this week, which isn’t flashy, but his recent form and style of play are hard to ignore at a venue like Pebble Beach.

He’s opened the season with a T63 at The American Express followed by a strong T9 last week at the WM Phoenix Open. Rewind a bit further to before his PGA Tour season began, and Fitzpatrick was on an impressive run on the DP World Tour, recording four top-10 finishes in six starts, including a win at the DP World Tour Championship. Add in his solid course history at Pebble Beach, highlighted by two top-15 finishes. This may be some of the best golf we’ve seen from him at any point in his career.

Since the end of his 2025 PGA Tour campaign, Fitzpatrick has been gaining across the board. Over the long term, he’s an excellent iron player with an elite short game both around the greens and on the putting surfaces. More recently, he’s also been gaining on the field in both accuracy and distance off the tee. Combine that with his proven ability to play well in the wind, and everything lines up nicely for him this week.

Fitzpatrick’s game is clicking at the right time, and he’s heading to a venue that should suit him perfectly. I like his chances to contend and potentially lift his second career PGA Tour trophy this week.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 26th

• Off-the-Tee: 29th

• Approach: 22nd

• Around the Green: 30th

• Putting: 122nd

Jason Day +4800

Day checks in at 34th in my model this week, which isn’t ideal on the surface, but his underlying numbers in recent outings, combined with his incredible course history, were more than enough to convince me to add him to my outright card.

He’s opened the 2026 season with a runner-up finish at The American Express and a T38 at the Farmers Insurance Open. While the most recent result isn’t ideal, it still represents a solid start to the year. Now buckle up for some of the best course history you’ll find in this field without a win. In 16 starts at Pebble Beach, Jason Day has never missed a cut and has posted 14 top-25 finishes, including nine top-10s and five top-five results.

What’s especially encouraging this week is how sharp his ball-striking has looked early in the season. Day has gained just under a stroke and a half per round on approach in his first two starts, a key ingredient for success at Pebble Beach. And as always, he brings an elite short game week in and week out.

I’m backing Jason Day to finally break through and get his long-awaited win at Pebble Beach this week at some very enticing odds.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 3rd

• Off-the-Tee: 104th

• Approach: 6th

• Around the Green: 31st

• Putting: 15th

Rickie Fowler +7500

Fowler has been popping early and often in my models this season, checking in at number 2 this week. He’s also one of just two golfers who surprisingly rank ahead of Scottie Scheffler, which made him impossible for me to ignore.

Fowler has started his 2026 campaign on a strong note with back-to-back T18 finishes at The American Express and the WM Phoenix Open. That momentum carries over from how he closed out 2025, posting consecutive top-10 finishes, firmly placing him in the “good form” category. His Pebble Beach history isn’t flashy, four made cuts in six appearances, highlighted by a T27 back in 2010, but the course résumé doesn’t tell the full story.

Fowler’s well-rounded game should suit Pebble Beach far better than his past results suggest. The main reason I’m high on him this week is what the numbers are showing early in the season. His tee-to-green play has been excellent, driven by standout iron play, which is critical for success on these courses.

With his odds nearly doubling from what we saw last week at the WM Phoenix Open, where he still finished inside the top 20, I’m more than happy to add Fowler to my outright betting card this week.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 32nd

• Off-the-Tee: 72nd

• Approach: 18th

• Around the Green: 143rd

• Putting: 44th

Alex Noren +10500

I’ve had Noren circled for this event from the start, and despite ranking 49th in my model, the number we’re getting makes him a no-brainer bet for me this week.

There’s no avoiding the fact that his 2026 PGA Tour campaign has gotten off to a rough start, missing the cut in his only two starts so far. That’s exactly why the odds are what they are. It’s also worth remembering that prior to those two events, Noren was in excellent form, winning twice on the DP World Tour and adding multiple top-20 finishes around those victories. Noren has played Pebble Beach four times in his career, with two missed cuts, a T32 in 2020, and a T26 in 2024.

His skill set should translate perfectly to this venue. He’s accurate off the tee, consistently above Tour average with his irons, and owns an elite short game. On top of that, he’s one of the stronger players in windy conditions, which is almost certain to be a factor this week.

While the recent form isn’t ideal, something I typically prioritize, and the course history isn’t flashy, I’m willing to trust Noren’s long-term game and underlying form to give him a real chance to contend this week.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 87th

• Off-the-Tee: 91st

• Approach: 41st

• Around the Green: 132nd

• Putting: 100th

I personally structure my outright betting cards to target a minimum return of 10x my unit.  In practice, this means I risk a total of one unit across all selections, with each individual bet paying out 10 units if it wins.  For example, if my unit is $100, each outright selection would return $1,000.  This approach aligns with my risk tolerance and ensures that hitting one winner in every ten events allows me to at least break even.

This is simply the system that works best for me.  I strongly encourage everyone to develop an approach that aligns with their own bankroll, risk tolerance, and betting goals.

Daily Fantasy Sports Breakdown

$10,000+ Range: Tommy Fleetwood $10,200

Coming in at number 1 in my model this week, I ultimately talked myself out of playing him in the outright market. That said, I still wanted exposure, which is why I’m firing him up in DFS.

Fleetwood makes his 2026 PGA Tour debut this week, and based on what we’ve seen so far on the DP World Tour, the results have been underwhelming. He finished 25th at the Dubai Invitational and followed that with a T41 at the Hero Dubai Desert Classic, disappointing outcomes considering he sat near the top of the odds boards at both events. His course history at Pebble Beach hasn’t inspired much confidence either, with a best finish of T22 in four appearances, which came last year.

So why go back to him this week? Simply put, the skill set he brings should translate far better than his past results suggest. Fleetwood is excellent off the tee, combining tour-average distance with well-above-average accuracy. He’s also an elite iron player with a strong short game both around the greens and with the putter. Add in his ability to thrive in windy conditions, which should certainly factor in this week, and the profile starts to make sense.

In a no-cut event, Fleetwood has the upside to rack up DFS points. While he didn’t make my outright betting card, I love him as a DFS play this week.

2025 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 2nd

• Off-the-Tee: 50th

• Approach: 6th

• Around the Green: 25th

• Putting: 20th

$9,900 - $9,000 Range: Viktor Hovland $9,900

Hovland ranks fifth in my model this week, and while I preferred a few other options in the outright market, I think he’s an excellent DFS play.

Let’s address the elephant in the room: this is a venue where around-the-green play matters more than at your average course, and that’s traditionally been Hovland’s weakness. That said, dating back to the end of last season, he’s actually gained on the field around the greens in seven straight starts. We already know he’s one of the best iron players on the PGA Tour and pairs that with solid accuracy off the tee.

Hovland made his 2026 season debut last week at the WM Phoenix Open, finishing T10, and he also brings respectable course history to Pebble Beach with three top-25 finishes in five appearances.

Hovland offers a high ceiling, and while I expect him to carry more ownership than I typically prefer, his upside outweighs that concern. I’ll look to find leverage in other price ranges while happily rolling him out in DFS this week.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 9th

• Off-the-Tee: 151st

• Approach: 10th

• Around the Green: 13th

• Putting: 20th

$8,900 - $8,000 Range: Ben Griffin $8,400

Griffin ranks seventh in my model this week and is my favorite DFS play.

His start to the 2026 season has been underwhelming by his standards. In three appearances, he has posted a top-20, a top-25, and a top-30 finish. For many players, that would be considered solid form, but after the season Griffin had last year, it falls short of expectations. His Pebble Beach history isn’t much better, with a best finish of T58 in three appearances dating back to 2024.

Last year, Griffin played the best golf of his career and showed just how well-rounded he has become. He ranks slightly above Tour average in both driving distance and accuracy, and he’s elite on approach, around the greens, and with the putter, skills that carry a lot of weight at Pebble Beach.

His game should translate far better here than his past results suggest, and coming off a season where he played at his peak, he has significant upside. I also expect his ownership to be relatively low given the number of popular options in this price range, which makes him a core DFS play for me this week.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 42nd

• Off-the-Tee: 92nd

• Approach: 107th

• Around the Green: 5th

• Putting: 74th

$7,900 - $7,000 Range: Rickie Fowler $7,600

For the same reasons I’m backing Fowler in the outright market, he’s also a core play for me in DFS this week. He’s shown up early and often in my models this season, ranking second overall, and is one of just two players who surprisingly grade out ahead of Scottie Scheffler, something I couldn’t ignore.

Fowler has opened his 2026 campaign in solid form with back-to-back T18 finishes at The American Express and the WM Phoenix Open, building on the momentum from how he closed out 2025 with consecutive top-10s. While his Pebble Beach résumé isn’t eye-catching, four made cuts in six appearances with a best finish of T27 back in 2010, it undersells how well his current game fits this venue.

His well-rounded skill set should translate far better here than his past results indicate. The numbers early this season are especially encouraging, with Fowler’s tee-to-green play standing out thanks to strong iron performance, a key ingredient for success on these courses.

With projected ownership coming in on the lower end of this price range, Fowler checks every box as a strong DFS play for me this week.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 32nd

• Off-the-Tee: 72nd

• Approach: 18th

• Around the Green: 143rd

• Putting: 44th

$6,900 - $6,000 Range: Sami Valimaki $6,400

Valimaki checks in at number 13 in my model this week, which makes him a viable option in this price range in my opinion.

It’s been a slow start to the 2026 season for Valimaki, as he missed back-to-back cuts at The American Express and the Farmers Insurance Open before posting a T41 last week at the WM Phoenix Open. He’s never teed it up at Pebble Beach, but it’s a venue I think should suit his game reasonably well.

Valimaki is accurate off the tee and pairs that with a solid iron game and a capable putter. Despite the lack of results early in the season, one encouraging sign is that he’s been gaining around the greens, an area where he’s typically below tour average.

At this price point, we’re not getting a complete golfer, but his projected ownership should be relatively low and his ceiling is higher than many other options in this range. I’m willing to take a shot on Valimaki building off his first made cut of the season last week.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 89th

• Off-the-Tee: 97th

• Approach: 151st

• Around the Green: 32nd

• Putting: 46th

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