2026 Sony Open in Hawaii

Introduction

The PGA Tour kicks off the 2026 season at Wai'alae Country Club for the Sony Open in Hawaii. Typically, we start the season with The Sentry Tournament of Champions, but this year, due to environmental circumstances at Kapalua's Plantation Course, that event will not be held in 2026. Nonetheless, we've finally reached the start of the 2026 PGA Tour season and I could not be more excited.

Course Breakdown, Tournament History & Weather Forecast

Wai'alae Country Club is located in Honalulu, Oahu, Hawaii. The course was originally designed by Seth Raynor with more recent renovations completed by Tom Doak.

Wai'alae will be set up as a par 70 measuring approximately 7,044 yards. Bermuda grass is used throughout the property, including the fairways, rough, and greens. The course features 83 bunkers, with water coming into play on five holes. Tree-lined fairways and multiple doglegs place a premium on accuracy, while the greens are relatively small and feature challenging undulations.

Both the par 5's are reachable in two for much of the field, making par 5 scoring a key factor this week. However, with only two par 5's on the card, par 4 scoring also plays a significant role in determining success.

When building my model for this event, I factored in the following key performance metrics:

• Strokes Gained: Approach

• Strokes Gained: Putting

• Good Drive Percentage

• Driving Accuracy Percentage

• Birdie or Better Percentage

• Proximity to the Hole (150-200 yards)

• Go for the Green Hit Green Percentage

• Par 4 Average Scoring

• Par 5 Average Scoring

This event is held annually at Wai'alae Country Club, and recent winners with thier respective scores to par are listed below:

• 2025 - Nick Taylor (-16)

• 2024 - Grayson Murray (-17)

• 2023 - Si Woo Kim (-18)

• 2022 - Hideki Matsuyama (-23)

• 2021 - Kevin Na (-21)

• 2020 - Cameron Smith (-11)

• 2019 - Matt Kuchar (-22)

• 2018 - Patton Kizzire (-17)

• 2017 - Justin Thomas (-27)

From 2017 through 2025, the average winning score sits just over 19 under par. As these results show, scoring at Wai'alae can vary year to year, largely influnced by weather conditions throughout the week.

Looking ahead to this week, the forecast appears consistent for the duration of the tournament, with light winds and the possibility of brief, scattered showers. Overall conditions look favorable, and I would expect the winning score to settle in the low 20s under par.

Field Breakdown

The field this week features 120 golfers, including four players currently ranked in the top 10 of the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR): #5 Russell Henley, #6 J.J. Spaun, #7 Robert MacIntyre, and #8 Ben Griffin.

Other notable names in the field include defending champion Nick Taylor, as well as Hideki Matsuyama, Collin Morikawa, Jordan Spieth, Brian Harman, and Keegan Bradley.

Overall, the field this week is solid. Typically, much of the PGA Tour talent comes to Hawaii for The Sentry, with some also competing the following week at the Sony Open in Hawaii. However, with The Sentry canceled this year, the Sony Open serves as the sole PGA Tour event in Hawaii for the 2026 season.

Outright Betting Breakdown

Corey Conners +4000

Conners ranked 30 in my model this week, but in my opinion, he’s one of the most talented players in this field.

His skill set profiles extremely well for Waiʻalae Country Club. He’s elite off the tee, pairs that with a strong approach game, and is also above Tour average with the putter. I fully expected him to fall in the high-20s to low-30s range on the odds board, so seeing him available at 40/1 made him an easy pick this week.

In seven career starts at this event, Conners has finished inside the top 15 four times. This was a familiar trend we saw when profiling Nick Taylor last year prior to his victory.

I believe this is a strong opportunity for Conners to work his way back into the winner’s circle and capture his third PGA Tour victory.

2025 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 29th

• Off-the-Tee: 24th

• Approach: 39th

• Around the Green: 146th

• Putting: 67th

Kurt Kitayama +4000

Kitayama ranks fifth in my model this week. While he isn’t a player I typically gravitate toward, I do like his profile in this spot.

His strong showing in the model is driven by elite approach play. While he can be a bit inaccurate off the tee and doesn’t possess a particularly strong putter, both minor concerns at Wai‘alae, his iron play more than compensates for those weaknesses. Kitayama has made the cut in three of four starts at this event, highlighted by a T24 finish in 2024.

I’m banking on his approach play carrying him to a third career PGA Tour victory this week.

2025 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 17th

• Off-the-Tee: 12th

• Approach: 32nd

• Around the Green: 39th

• Putting: 148th

Rico Hoey +5000

Hoey ranks first in my model this week—and no, that is not a typo.

He is elite both off the tee and on approach, finishing inside the top 10 on the PGA Tour in both categories last season. The obvious concern with Hoey is the putter, as he has been among the weakest putters on Tour. That said, he began to show improvement on the greens toward the end of the 2025 season. If he can simply putt at an average level, he has the upside to win this tournament.

I’m trusting the model and banking on Hoey building off that late-season putting improvement to capture his first career PGA Tour victory.

2025 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 76th

• Off-the-Tee: 3rd

• Approach: 8th

• Around the Green: 110th

• Putting: 180th

Mac Meissner +6500

Meissner ranked second in my model this week and is probably my favorite play.

He brings an extremely well-rounded game to the table. While his 2025 season was largely disappointing, he closed out the year strong, making the cut in his last seven starts and posting four top-20 finishes during that stretch. He has played in this tournament last year and finished T21.

We don’t often see first-time PGA Tour winners at this event, but I believe Meissner can build off last year’s finish and his strong season-ending form to contend for the title this week.

2025 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 62nd

• Off-the-Tee: 138th

• Approach: 37th

• Around the Green: 23rd

• Putting: 109th

Matt McCarty +6600

McCarty ranks 18th in my model this week and was a name I had circled early for this event.

He burst onto the PGA Tour scene by winning in just his second career start and followed that up with a string of impressive finishes throughout the 2025 season.

McCarty is extremely accurate off the tee and pairs that with a strong putting profile. Last season, we also saw his ability to spike with his irons, an attribute that will be critical for success this week at Waiʻalae. He made his debut at this event last year, where he made the cut and finished T65.

As mentioned earlier, if McCarty can get the irons dialed in this week, I like his chances of capturing his second PGA Tour victory.

2025 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 45th

• Off-the-Tee: 86th

• Approach: 116th

• Around the Green: 75th

• Putting: 17th

Gary Woodland +9000

Woodland ranks 12th in my model this week and is my long shot for the event.

A fan favorite, Woodland is someone I find myself rooting for every time he tees it up. Last season, he showed the ability to drive the ball both long and accurately, while also posting above-average numbers on approach and on the greens. Taken together, that skill set sets up well for success this week.

Woodland has played this tournament 10 times, recording five top-20 finishes. If everything comes together, I’m hoping the stars align for him to return to the winner’s circle and capture his fourth career PGA Tour victory.

2025 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 63rd

• Off-the-Tee: 48th

• Approach: 36th

• Around the Green: 177th

• Putting: 45th

I personally structure my outright betting cards to target a minimum return of 10x my unit.  In practice, this means I risk a total of one unit across all selections, with each individual bet paying out 10 units if it wins.  For example, if my unit is $100, each outright selection would return $1,000.  This approach aligns with my risk tolerance and ensures that hitting one winner in every ten events allows me to at least break even.

This is simply the system that works best for me.  I strongly encourage everyone to develop an approach that aligns with their own bankroll, risk tolerance, and betting goals.

Daily Fantasy Sports Breakdown

$10,000+ Range: Ben Griffin $10,100

There are only two options in this range, so I went with the player I prefer versus the player that I think will be lower owned. Ben Griffin had a career year last season, winning three times. He showcased elite iron play and a strong short game, which propelled him to No. 8 in the OWGR.

Griffin ranks third in my model this week, which comes as no surprise given his skill set. He has played this event three times, making the cut in each appearance, with his best finish coming in 2023 (T-12).

You could certainly make a case for skipping this range altogether, but I expect that approach may also be popular, especially with several big names sitting in the $9K range.

2025 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 5th

• Off-the-Tee: 58th

• Approach: 22nd

• Around the Green: 45th

• Putting: 19th

$9,000 - $9,900 Range: Robert MacIntyre $9,600

With other notable names in this range, including Collin Morikawa, Hideki Matsuyama, J.J. Spaun, Si Woo Kim, and Keegan Bradley, I expect Robert MacIntyre to be overlooked this week.

He possesses a well-rounded game that may not be flashy, but consistently puts him in position to contend whenever he tees it up. MacIntyre ranks above the Tour average across all five primary strokes-gained metrics. In my opinion, his ceiling this week will largely depend on how well he performs off the tee. Regardless, I love him as a daily fantasy sports option, especially if his ownership comes in low.

2025 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 14th

• Off-the-Tee: 52nd

• Approach: 40th

• Around the Green: 60th

• Putting: 39th

$8,000 - $8,900 Range: Rico Hoey $8,100

I’m not entirely sure where ownership will settle in this range, but with Hoey ranking first in my model this week, I feel compelled to play him.

Hoey is elite both off the tee and on approach, but despite his strengths in those areas, putting has been a clear weakness. His course history is also underwhelming, having made the cut just once in three appearances. That said, none of this concerns me. Hoey put together an excellent swing season, even though a win ultimately eluded him.

With Scottie Scheffler finding success on the greens in 2025, Hoey fits the mold of a classic upside play. If he can simply get to field average with the putter, he has the ability to win this tournament.

2025 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 76th

• Off-the-Tee: 3rd

• Approach: 8th

• Around the Green: 110th

• Putting: 180th

$7,000 - $7,900 Range: John Parry $7,200

As someone who follows the DP World Tour closely, I really like John Parry at this event. The icing on the cake is that, with this being his first PGA Tour start, I expect his ownership to be extremely low.

Parry’s skill set fits Wai'alae Country Club perfectly. He is accurate off the tee and possesses an excellent approach game. He earned his PGA Tour card for the 2026 season by finishing in the top 10 on the DP World Tour Order of Merit. If I had to draw a PGA Tour comparison, I’d describe him as a slightly lesser version of Si Woo Kim, who won this event in 2023. Like Kim, Parry is a player who can contend here if the putter cooperates.

$6,000 - $6,900 Range: Zac Blair $6,800

This range is always tricky, but with recent form factoring heavily in my model, Blair came in eighth for me this week. Not sure if that says more about my model or if Blair is a true diamond in the rough this week.

Blair is consistently accurate off the tee and, dare I say, has an elite approach game. He’s also made the cut in all six appearances at this event. While his overall season was a bit inconsistent, he did post one top-20 and back-to-back top-10 finishes during the recent swing season.

If you’re looking to dip into the $6K range, the goal is usually to get players who simply make the cut and earn some weekend points to bolster your lineup. I think Blair offers a bit more upside than most in this range, making him a potentially valuable piece in a winning lineup.

2025 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 97th

• Off-the-Tee: 152nd

• Approach: 16th

• Around the Green: 100th

• Putting: 134th

Gambling Disclaimer

All betting tips, opinions, and suggestions are provided for informational and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or gambling advice.  There is no guarantee of results, and past performance is not indicative of future outcomes.

Gambling involves financial risk, and you should only wager money you can afford to lose.  Always gamble responsibly and in accordance with the laws and regulations applicable in your jurisdiction.

If you or someone you know may have a gambling problem, please seek assistance from a qualified professional or a responsible gambling organization or hotline in your area.