2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson

Introduction

After the grind of Aronimink, the PGA Tour returns to Texas, and frankly, the contrast couldn't be more jarring, or more welcome. Last week's PGA Championship was a brutal, wind-whipped examination of every facet of the game, with punishing rough, slick greens, and conditions that wore players down mentally and physically. Aaron Rai walked away with the Wanamaker Trophy, and now we pivot to McKinney, Texas, where TPC Craig Ranch awaits, a course that, at least historically, rewards scoring and birdie runs. But here's the thing: this is not the same TPC Craig Ranch. After Scottie Scheffler's record-obliterating 31-under performance in 2025, tournament organizers signed off on a $25 million renovation led by World Golf Hall of Famer Lanny Wadkins. The course has been completely overhauled, and nobody quite knows how this new-look layout will play in competition for the first time. That uncertainty makes this week genuinely fascinating from an analytical standpoint, and I think it creates real value in the betting and DFS markets.

The field is what you'd expect for a non-Signature, post-major week: good, but not deep. The biggest names who have the option to rest are resting, which means we're working with a pool of players who either love this event, need the FedEx Cup points, or simply want to get a competitive look at the renovated TPC Craig Ranch before the weekend pressure sets in. Scottie Scheffler is the obvious headliner as the defending champion and the world number one, but his putter has been a genuine storyline this season, and after a T-14 at Aronimink last week, the questions will follow him to McKinney. That creates an environment where someone else can absolutely win this golf tournament, and I'm excited about the value plays we've identified this week.

One more thing worth noting as you read this: TPC Craig Ranch is Scheffler's backyard in every sense of the word. He made his PGA Tour debut here as a high school senior in 2014, he's a Dallas native, and he torched this course last year in one of the most dominant individual performances in Tour history. But this is a new test, with new turf, repositioned bunkers, a redesigned 18th hole, and architectural elements that should slow down the birdie train at least somewhat. How players adapt to the new surfaces, particularly the Bentgrass greens and Stadium Zoysia fairways, will likely be the central story of the week. Let's get into it.

Course Breakdown

TPC Craig Ranch sits just north of Dallas in McKinney, Texas, a gently rolling landscape that Tom Weiskopf originally designed in 2004. The course plays as a par 71 at 7,385 yards in its renovated configuration, roughly 200 yards shorter than it played in 2025, though the changes Lanny Wadkins has made are far more substantive than simply moving some tee markers around. This is a fundamentally different golf course, and while the bones remain a Weiskopf creation, the strategic demands have been meaningfully elevated.

The renovation's centerpiece is a collection of new and repositioned bunkers, extended par fives, and green complexes that have been reshaped and repositioned to expand pin placement options and increase approach shot difficulty. The par four third hole is a prime example: the green has been shifted closer to Rowlett Creek, adding a waste bunker that puts approach shots in real jeopardy for players who miss the target line. The par five fifth hole has been dramatically extended to 624 yards and now features "Hell's Full Acre," a massive waste bunker that splits the landing zones from the green and forces genuine decisions off the tee and on the layup. Players will need to think clearly on this hole rather than just bombing away and gauging the gap. The par three fourth hole now features a "biarritz" green design, a long green split by a central trench, that requires careful shot placement and demands players commit to a specific section of the putting surface.

The redesigned 18th hole deserves particular attention because it fundamentally changes closing strategy. Wadkins converted what was previously an accessible birdie hole into a demanding par four specifically to create tension in the finishing stretch. His reasoning was straightforward: if a player needs par to win, they should face a real test to earn it. While the design philosophy behind "making par exciting" can be debated, the practical result is a closing hole that rewards controlled, precise iron play over a hero shot mentality.

The turf changes are significant from a playing-quality and strategic standpoint. Stadium Zoysia now covers all fairways and greenside collars, which will provide firm footing and should produce a different kind of approach play than the previous surface allowed. The roughs have been upgraded to TifTuf Bermuda, which is celebrated for its durability and will likely produce a tighter, more consistent rough that still penalizes missed fairways without necessarily swallowing golf balls whole. Most importantly for scoring, the greens have been rebuilt with 777 Bentgrass, a next-generation bentgrass turf known for elite-level speed, consistency, and smoothness. This is a significant upgrade, and given that the greens are brand new and being used competitively for the first time, there will almost certainly be some settling-in as players read and adapt to the new surfaces.

Despite the renovations, TPC Craig Ranch remains a birdie-fest by design. The gentle elevation changes of the North Texas terrain are not severe enough to create the grinding test of a Colonial or a Congressional. Wide corridors from the tee have been tightened, but this is not a tree-lined claustrophobic track where drives must be threaded through gaps. It still rewards length, but the repositioned bunkers and new green complexes should mean that accurate long-iron and mid-iron play is more important than ever. The player who wins here will combine above-average driving with elite-level approach play — particularly from the 150-200 yard range, and sufficient putting quality on new, fast Bentgrass surfaces. Short game around the redesigned green complexes will also be a factor, as the new waste bunkers and reshaped collars create more challenging chip and pitch lies than the previous setup allowed.

The bottom line at the renovated TPC Craig Ranch is this: the player who wins will need to drive it in play, hit precise iron shots, adapt quickly to new Bentgrass greens, and handle the strategic complexity of new hazards. The days of parking a tee shot in the middle of a wide fairway and pitching from perfect angles are not entirely gone, but they are diminished. Precision has been added to what was previously a pure power-and-putting contest.

Tournament History

The event that bears Byron Nelson's name is one of the oldest on the PGA Tour calendar, dating back to 1944 when Nelson himself won what was called the Texas Victory Open by ten strokes at Lakewood Country Club. The tournament has worn many names over the decades, the Dallas Open, the Byron Nelson Golf Classic, the AT&T Byron Nelson, and now the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, and has moved through multiple Dallas-area venues before settling at TPC Craig Ranch in 2021.

At TPC Craig Ranch specifically, the scoring trends have been aggressive. K.H. Lee won the inaugural Craig Ranch edition in 2021 and repeated in 2022 with scores of -25 and -26 respectively, establishing that the course was immediately player-friendly. Jason Day's 2023 victory at -23 suggested the course demanded scoring. Taylor Pendrith won in 2024 at -23, and then Scheffler's 31-under demolition job in 2025 set a PGA Tour 72-hole scoring record. The renovations were designed, in large part, as a direct response to that last result. History at Craig Ranch tells us to expect winning scores somewhere in the -18 to -25 range in a normal weather week, though the renovations genuinely complicate any projection. With new turf still settling and strategic demands elevated, I wouldn't be shocked to see the winner in the -15 to -20 range as the field adjusts to an unfamiliar layout.

Recent Champions and their score to par:

• 2025 - Scottie Scheffler (-31)

• 2024 - Taylor Pendrith (-23)

• 2023 - Jason Day (-23)

• 2022 - K.H. Lee (-26)

• 2021 - K.H. Lee (-25)

Field Breakdown

This week's field is precisely what you'd expect in the week following a major at a non-Signature event, competitive, but with clear gaps at the top. Scottie Scheffler headlines as the defending champion and the world's best player, but beyond him, the depth drops off quickly. Si Woo Kim is the only other player in the OWGR top 30, and while Kim is always dangerous at courses that reward precision over raw power, the talent pool after those two is populated by players in the 50-150 world ranking range. That's not a knock on the event, it's the reality of the Tour calendar, and it creates genuine opportunity for value in the betting and DFS markets.

At the elite tier, Scheffler stands alone in a different stratosphere. He won here by eight shots last year at a record 31 under, and while the course has changed meaningfully, he knows this place better than anyone. The renovation puts a premium on accuracy and iron play, both of which are strengths in his game even when his putter isn't cooperating. Jordan Spieth is worth noting as a legitimate contender at a strong price, he finished third here in 2025, grew up playing golf in Dallas, and has openly embraced the new-look Craig Ranch. Aaron Rai would have been another tier-one option, but he withdrew after winning the PGA Championship last week, which is entirely understandable. His absence creates a wider opening for the field.

The second tier of legitimate contenders features some interesting names. Si Woo Kim's combination of accurate iron play and hot-cold putting makes him a candidate on a course that now demands more precision from the wedges. Christiaan Bezuidenhout has been on an interesting Texas run, posting a series of strong finishes at Texas-based events this season, and the Colonial-like characteristics that some analysts see in the renovated Craig Ranch setup play directly to his controlled, penetrating ball flight. Cam Davis brings a high ceiling and Texas familiarity, and players like Wyndham Clark and Tom Kim, while off the radar for most, are capable of going on birdie runs at courses like this one.

The mid-range value tier is genuinely compelling this week, and it's where most of our outright plays live. Brooks Koepka makes his first appearance at this event in several years, having returned to the PGA Tour from LIV Golf, and while his season has been up and down, the Texas connection and his renewed enthusiasm for the game are factors worth exploring. Davis Thompson, Austin Eckroat, and Zecheng Dou all have statistical profiles that translate well to what this course should now demand. Blades Brown at just 18 years old is a fascinating wildcard, he nearly led the American Express wire-to-wire earlier this season, and his length off the tee combined with a natural fearlessness could translate to something special here.

In the veteran and returning-player category, Tony Finau and Mark Hubbard both have something to prove heading into the summer stretch of the season. Finau has been knocking on the door all year without a top-ten finish; Hubbard has shown flashes, including leading the Valero Texas Open after round one, but hasn't been able to put four rounds together. Both carry some risk, but at the prices they're available at, the reward more than compensates.

What separates realistic winners from the field this week will be the ability to adapt quickly to new turf surfaces, particularly the Bentgrass greens, and to navigate the new strategic elements like Hell's Full Acre on 5 and the revised 18th. Distance off the tee still matters at 7,385 yards with par fives to attack, but the renovation has meaningfully elevated the importance of approach accuracy and course management. A player who can do both, drive it in play and hit precise irons, while handling the psychological burden of competing on a course nobody has played competitively before, will be in the winner's circle Sunday.

Outright Betting Breakdown

Brooks Koepka +2800

My model has Koepka as a live contender this week, and I want to be clear about what that means in context. He's been statistically below average overall in his return to the PGA Tour from LIV Golf, but there are real signs of life, and crucially, they're emerging at the right time. He's ranked 125th in the world, hasn't won on Tour since 2023, and carries legitimate risk at this price. But when I look at the full picture, I see enough to make a swing.

The form narrative heading into this week is genuinely interesting. Koepka shot a 7-under 64 in round three of the Myrtle Beach Classic two weeks ago, his lowest round of the 2026 season, and described it as "the most excited I've been playing golf in a long, long time." He hit the ball brilliantly at Aronimink last week in the PGA Championship, gaining strokes ball-striking in nearly every round, even as his putter remained the issue. His own words: "Ball striking is absolutely phenomenal. Putter is absolutely horrendous." The good news? TPC Craig Ranch's new Bentgrass greens are a fresh slate for everyone, there's no historical putting data on this surface, and a player who is driving the ball and striking irons as well as Koepka is by his own admission will have birdie opportunities on every hole. The putting issue is real, but new greens are a legitimate equalizer.

From a skillset standpoint, Koepka's peak profile is tailor-made for this course. He's a long, powerful driver who can take advantage of par fives when he's hitting it well, and he has historically been an elite mid-to-long iron player. The renovation has elevated the importance of 150-200 yard approach shots, exactly the range where Koepka has produced his best work historically. He's not a scrambler by nature, and his around-the-green numbers this season have been unremarkable, so he'll need to keep the ball on or near the greens to compensate. That said, if his ball-striking continues at the Aronimink level, he's going to create birdie looks.

I'm on Koepka because the price reflects the narrative rather than the underlying ball-striking quality that's been on display in recent weeks. A player who is "phenomenally" striking the ball, heading to a fresh-turf course where nobody has a putting advantage, at a price that implies roughly a 3.5% win probability, that's value to me. This is a situation where the story and the price are misaligned.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Gained Rankings:

• Total: 27th

• Off-the-Tee: 41st

• Approach: 3rd

• Around the Green: 48th

• Putting: 141st

Davis Thompson +5000

Davis Thompson is one of my favorite longer-shot plays on the board this week, and the math is straightforward: he's an elite approach player on a course that now demands elite approach play, at a price that implies barely a 2% win probability. That feels wrong to me given the course-fit alignment.

Thompson's form this season has been inconsistent, he had a strong T-4 at the Puerto Rico Open, which remains his best result of the year, and he's made the cut in a solid majority of his starts without turning many of them into genuine leaderboard appearances. His putting has been the culprit, sitting around dead last on Tour in SG: Putting through the Players Championship, which is a significant drag on his overall scoring. The hope this week is that the new Bentgrass greens function as a reset, at a minimum, nobody on the field has an advantage from having played these surfaces before.

What makes Thompson interesting here is the approach game. He's ranked around 36th on Tour in SG: Approach, and his Greens in Regulation percentage has been genuinely elite, top 10 at various points this season. His off-the-tee numbers are solidly average (roughly 55th in SG: OTT), which means he's finding enough fairways to set up those approach opportunities. The courses where Thompson has succeeded have consistently rewarded that profile: put the ball in play off the tee, hit a lot of greens, and make enough putts to compete. The renovated Craig Ranch, with its new premium on approach accuracy and greenside angles, fits his game cleanly.

I'm on Thompson at +5000 because approach play is the defining skill at this course in 2026, he's one of the better approach players in the field, and the price is generous enough to absorb the putting variance risk. If the new Bentgrass greens are reading more consistently than what he's faced recently, and if his putting regresses toward something closer to average over a tournament week, he has the ball-striking profile to compete deep into Sunday. This is a player who can shoot low when everything clicks, the price is acknowledging the risk that it won't.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Gained Rankings:

• Total: 67th

• Off-the-Tee: 42nd

• Approach: 17th

• Around the Green: 80th

• Putting: 154th

Austin Eckroat +11000

Eckroat at +11000 is the kind of number that makes you feel like you've found gold when the stars align — and this week, I think there's a legitimate case to be made. Let's be honest about the concerns first: his season has been rough. He's ranked around 157th in the world, his driving has been below average, and his overall strokes-gained numbers have frequently been negative. He's been on the wrong side of cuts and double-digit finishes for stretches this year, and he's had exactly one top-ten finish on the season.

But here's what I keep coming back to: Austin Eckroat has been one of the most consistent elite approach players on Tour all season. His SG: Approach has hovered around the 21st-28th range on Tour in various snapshots, which is genuinely excellent. This is not a fluke, he won the 2024 Cognizant Classic with the same iron play profile, and he's repeated that approach-game excellence in 2026 even when the rest of his game has lagged. The renovated TPC Craig Ranch is going to reward approach excellence more than any previous iteration of this course, thanks to reshaped green complexes and repositioned bunkers that demand precise iron angles rather than simply hitting the green and rolling to any pin.

Eckroat is a Texas product who has played TPC Craig Ranch before, so there's familiarity factor at play. He knows the layout's bones even if the surface is new. His putting has been the issue all season, and that's a legitimate concern, but again, new Bentgrass greens create an uncertainty premium that can narrow that gap in a single week. If Eckroat's approach game continues at its season-long excellence level and his putter fires even close to average, his ceiling here is real. I'm playing a small unit at this price because the approach-course fit is strong and the number is high enough that it doesn't need to hit often to return value.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Gained Rankings:

• Total: 70th

• Off-the-Tee: 102nd

• Approach: 13th

• Around the Green: 97th

• Putting: 110th

Blades Brown +11500

I'll be upfront: this is the fun pick on the card. Blades Brown is 18 years old, he turns 19 this week, literally during the tournament, and he is one of the most exciting young talents in professional golf. I'm backing him at +11500 not just because it's an interesting story, but because there are real analytical reasons to believe in him this week.

Brown's breakout moment came at the American Express in January, where he shot a course-record 60 in round two at PGA West's Nicklaus Tournament Course, set a new record as the youngest player to hold a co-lead in Tour history, and played in the final group Sunday alongside Scottie Scheffler. He finished in the top 20 at that event and has since demonstrated competitive maturity well beyond his years. He's a full-time Korn Ferry Tour member with a sponsor exemption into this field, and he's the kind of fearless, uninhibited ball-striker who can thrive on courses that reward distance and aggressive play.

From a skillset perspective, Brown is long off the tee, he grew up bombing it past everyone in junior golf and hasn't stopped. The new par five fifth (Hell's Full Acre, 624 yards) is exactly the kind of risk-reward hole that a player like Brown will approach without blinking. His putting has been a strength at the Tour level in his limited appearances, which is the reverse of most emerging prospects, and his approach play in his handful of Tour starts has shown flashes. The concern is sample size and the reality that he's an 18-year-old with limited Tour experience at a level where pressure compounds over four days, not one or two.

What makes the number work is this: at +11500, you need Brown to win only a tiny fraction of the time for the bet to have positive expected value. If the analytical case for him is even modestly strong, long driver, good putter, fearless approach to the game, good Texas conditions, and you believe he wins even 1 in 80 times in a field this shallow, you're getting value.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Gained Rankings:

• Total: N/A

• Off-the-Tee: N/A

• Approach: N/A

• Around the Green: N/A

• Putting: N/A

Zecheng Dou +14500

Zecheng Dou is one of the most underrated players in this field from a pure course-fit perspective, and I'm happy to back him at a number that still treats him like an afterthought. Dou's profile, a precise ball-striker who controls his flight effectively and manages his game intelligently, has historically translated well to Texas courses, and the renovated Craig Ranch, with its new emphasis on approach accuracy and strategic thinking around repositioned bunkers, plays directly into those strengths.

Dou's recent Tour history has been up and down in terms of results, but his underlying statistics, particularly his approach play and fairway-finding percentage, are consistently better than his finishes suggest. He's a player whose game often looks more impressive in person than his leaderboard position would indicate, which is often a signal of a putting or short-game gap that can close in the right week. At a course with brand-new greens that nobody has a historical advantage on, and a field depth that allows a well-rounded ball-striker to compete with fewer elite names to chase down, Dou's profile gets more interesting.

The honest caveat is that Dou has been a near-miss story for years, plenty of good ball-striking weeks that never quite convert into top-10s, let alone wins. At +14500, the win probability implied is so low that even a modest upgrade in belief about his chances generates significant expected value. I want exposure to a player who hits greens on a course that now demands it, at a price that doesn't assume he'll do so.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Gained Rankings:

• Total: 48th

• Off-the-Tee: 140th

• Approach: 15th

• Around the Green: 15th

• Putting: 77th

Tony Finau +15000

I want to be transparent about the case for and against Finau because this is a complicated one. On paper, Tony Finau should not be at +15000. He's a former top-20 player in the world who has won multiple times on Tour, has genuine length and power, and has showed flashes of his old form this season, a T-31 at Quail Hollow last week after an opening 67, a T-11 at Farmers Insurance, and enough positive indicators to believe the game is still there. The price suggests the market has largely given up on him, and I think that's a mild overcorrection.

The harder truth is that Finau's season has been genuinely disappointing. He's ranked 119th in the world, missed his second consecutive major when he failed to qualify for the PGA Championship last week, and his scoring has been inconsistent at best. He's currently 0 for 2026 in top-10 finishes, which for a player of his caliber is a meaningful data point. His SG: Off-the-Tee has been negative this season, which is a concern at a course where driving accuracy has been elevated in importance by the renovation. The question with Finau this week is whether the confidence boost from that 67 at Quail Hollow carries over, and whether a return to a Texas course where he's shown historical comfort can unlock something.

If his irons sharpen up after the ball-striking work he's clearly doing, the ceiling here is a legitimate top-five or better. He's a streaky player who can go on birdie runs, that's actually the profile you want at a course like this. I'm taking a position at +15000 because I think the market is punishing him for his major-qualifying struggles rather than evaluating what his game can produce on a birdie-friendly Texas course.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Gained Rankings:

• Total: 111th

• Off-the-Tee: 142nd

• Approach: 111th

• Around the Green: 13th

• Putting: 94th

Mark Hubbard +23000

This is my lottery ticket play of the week, and I want to explain exactly why I think there's a sliver of real value at +23000 before you dismiss it. Mark Hubbard has been one of the most talked-about "almost" stories of the spring stretch on Tour. He led the Valero Texas Open after round one with a brilliant 65, making six birdies on his final eight holes and driving the ball as well as he had all season by his own admission. He said afterward that getting his driver under control was the key and that he finally knew where the ball was going. Then he shot 77 on Friday and fell completely out of contention, which is classically Hubbard, a player who shows you something exceptional and then reminds you why he hasn't converted.

But here's what's interesting: Hubbard is a Texas guy (he lives in The Woodlands), he has consistently shown up for Texas events on the schedule, and his driving accuracy at these courses has historically been solid. The renovation at Craig Ranch rewards his general profile, controlled driver, reasonable iron play, more than the old layout did, when raw distance was a more decisive advantage.

The case for Hubbard at +23000 is entirely about price. He's a real PGA Tour player who has shown Texas form this year, who lives in the state, who is playing a course that has been reset to a degree that equalizes some of the talent gap at the top, and whose win probability is implied at roughly 0.4%. If you believe his true win probability is even 0.8%, double what the market says, this bet has positive expected value. That's not a strong conviction play. That's a lottery ticket, and I'm treating it as one.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Gained Rankings:

• Total: 132nd

• Off-the-Tee: 124th

• Approach: 76th

• Around the Green: 94th

• Putting: 143rd

My outright card is built around a simple target: a minimum 10x return on my unit. In practice, that means I spread one total unit across all my selections for the week, structured so that any single winner returns at least 10 units. This means I only need to hit one outright in ten tournaments to break even. It keeps me honest about the odds I'm willing to accept and prevents me from chasing value at prices that don't justify the risk.

That said, this is my system, and it works for my bankroll and my risk tolerance. Yours may look completely different, and it should. Figure out what return threshold makes sense for you, how many units you're comfortable putting at risk in a given week, and build from there. The best betting system is the one you can stick to consistently, not the one that sounds best on paper.

Daily Fantasy Sports Breakdown

$10,000+ Price Range: Scottie Scheffler ($14,800)

I need to address this directly: Scheffler is the only player in this price tier this week. He is almost certainly going to be the highest-owned player on the slate, and in a shallow, post-major field at a course he dominated last year by eight shots, that ownership is well-deserved. The question for DFS purposes is not whether Scheffler is good, he obviously is, but whether building a lineup around an expected 40%+ owned player at $14,800 is the right structure for your contest format.

In cash games, Scheffler is likely the correct anchor. His floor at a course he knows this well, with a ball-striking profile that translates to the new layout, is among the highest on the slate. Even with the putting concerns that followed him through Aronimink last week, where he finished T-14 with rounds of 67-71-71-69, his overall game generates enough birdies to be a profitable cash-game play. The new Bentgrass greens are a legitimate wild card, but Scheffler has a history of adapting quickly to new surfaces, and his pre-tournament preparation for this event will almost certainly include significant time on the putting green understanding how the new turf behaves.

The form context matters here. Scheffler's 2026 season has been remarkable but not dominant, he's won the American Express, and has multiple T-2, T-3, T-4 finishes at Pebble Beach, Phoenix, Masters, and RBC Heritage. He played solidly at Aronimink but was genuinely hampered by the putter in rounds two, three, and four, which is a pattern worth noting. At TPC Craig Ranch with familiar Texas surroundings, his home state roots, and the memory of last year's record-setting week, there's reason to believe the putter finds something. His Bentgrass history elsewhere has been solid.

For GPP construction, I would rather use Scheffler in some lineups and fade him in others, building multiple rosters with different anchors. In a field this shallow, winning GPP lineups will need differentiated structures, and given how heavy his ownership will be, the lineup that wins the DraftKings $1 million tournament will likely include him at exactly the times he's playing his best. His DraftKings salary at $14,800 essentially demands that he scores in the 110+ DraftKings points range to provide value; his ceiling (120-130+ in a clean week at this course) is absolutely achievable based on his history here. The risk is a putting week like Aronimink rounds 2-4, which keeps his ceiling capped around 90-95 points, not disaster but not winning-GPP territory either.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Gained Rankings:

• Total: 1st

• Off-the-Tee: 3rd

• Approach: 26th

• Around the Green: 2nd

• Putting: 26th

$9,900 - $9,000 Price Range: Davis Thompson ($9,200)

Thompson is my featured mid-range DFS play this week, and the logic flows directly from the outright case: elite approach player at a course that now demands elite approach play, at a salary that doesn't fully reflect that course-skill alignment. His $9,200 salary places him among a cluster of mid-field players, and at this price, the implied points-per-dollar expectation is achievable given what his ball-striking can produce.

From a pure statistical standpoint, Thompson's iron play is genuinely special this season. His Greens in Regulation percentage has been top-10 on Tour at various points, and his SG: Approach at a renovated course that places a new emphasis on approach accuracy makes him a natural course fit. The concern, and I won't sugarcoat it, is the putter. He's been one of the worst putters on Tour, and that will cost him points in DFS even when his iron play is excellent. The hope is that new Bentgrass greens that nobody has rolled putts on create a more level playing field in the short term.

In cash games, Thompson is a borderline play, you want him if you believe the putting will be neutral to positive this week, and you want to avoid him if you're projecting the struggles to continue. For GPPs, he's a higher-ceiling play because an above-average putting week on top of elite approach play could produce a 95-105 point score at his price, which would make him among the most valuable plays on the slate. Expected ownership at $9,200 in a field this shallow should be moderate to relatively high, so differentiation value is limited, but the underlying statistical case is strong enough that I don't need him to be low-owned to justify the roster spot.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Gained Rankings:

• Total: 67th

• Off-the-Tee: 42nd

• Approach: 17th

• Around the Green: 80th

• Putting: 154th

$8,900 - $8,000 Price Range: Eric Cole ($8,100)

Eric Cole is one of those players whose DraftKings salary tends to lag behind his actual statistical profile, and I'm happy to exploit that gap this week. At $8,100, he's sitting in the lower end of the mid-range tier, which means his points-per-dollar target is more achievable than players salaries $500-$1,000 higher.

Cole's statistical profile has some genuinely interesting aspects for a course like this. He's been a solid all-around ball-striker at points this season, and while his Tour profile isn't flashy, no major wins, no extended top-10 streaks, he's the type of player who can put together a clean four-day run at a scoring-friendly Texas course when his game is in order. He's made cuts consistently this season, which at this price range in DFS signals a player who can score enough points in all four rounds to accumulate total value rather than just spotting a big round and fading.

For GPP purposes, Cole is primarily a low-ownership differentiation tool at this price. In a field where the top of the DraftKings slate will cluster heavily around Scheffler, Spieth, and a handful of others, identifying a $8,100 player who can put up legitimate scoring in a clean week provides lineup diversity at a price that doesn't break the budget. The risk is a missed cut, at $8,100 for a player ranked in the 100s on Tour, that's a real possibility, and you should only roster Cole in lineups where the rest of your roster can absorb a zero. His ceiling in a birdie-festival week at this course, if his ball-striking is sharp, is a legitimate 85-95 points. His floor is a missed cut. The spread makes him a GPP play, not a cash-game anchor.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Gained Rankings:

• Total: 57th

• Off-the-Tee: 156th

• Approach: 58th

• Around the Green: 3rd

• Putting: 18th

$7,900 - $7,000 Price Range: Karl Vilips ($7,200)

Karl Vilips is the most interesting statistical story in this price range, and I want to explain why before you move on. As of mid-season, Vilips ranked approximately 10th on Tour in SG: Putting, elite level, genuinely top-tier. At a price of $7,200 at a course with brand-new Bentgrass greens that will reward players who can read and roll the ball cleanly, a player with a putting profile that good is worth a serious look.

The caveat is significant: Vilips' approach game has been inconsistent in earlier season snapshots. That's a concerning number at a course that the renovation has made more approach-sensitive. He's essentially the mirror image of Davis Thompson, great putter, mediocre iron player, and at this course, where approach play is now more central to scoring than it was, that profile is less ideal than it would have been at the old Craig Ranch. The question is whether the new greens reward his putting enough to compensate for approach deficiencies.

For GPP construction, Vilips is an interesting lottery play at $7,200. His low salary means he can be paired with high-priced studs and still fit in under the cap, and if his putting is truly elite-level this week, he can produce enough fantasy value to anchor a low-cost roster spot even without generating a ton of birdie chances. His expected ownership should be low to moderate, which is exactly what you want in this price range from a GPP perspective. I'd play him in a minority of my GPP lineups, maybe 20-25%, while accepting the risk that his approach play limits his upside. In cash games, I'd lean toward better-rounded options at similar prices.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Gained Rankings:

• Total: 86th

• Off-the-Tee: 138th

• Approach: 70th

• Around the Green: 141st

• Putting: 10th

$6,900 - $6,000 Price Range: Chandler Blanchet ($6,800)

Fair warning before we dive into this one: I want to be straightforward with you about the risk involved in this price range in a field as weak as this one. When a field doesn't have enough high-quality players to fill out the top of the DraftKings salary structure, the bottom of the range fills with players who are on the Tour card but may not have the weekly form or statistical profile to warrant real confidence. Chandler Blanchet is the best option I can identify at this price, but please understand this is a high-variance play with a real floor problem.

That said, Blanchet has shown flashes. His best finish this season was a T-2 at the Puerto Rico Open at -16, which demonstrated that he can go low on a scoring-friendly track when his game is in gear. He's earned nearly 250 FedEx Cup points this season from a standing start, which suggests enough made cuts and respectable finishes to maintain Tour status. His off-the-tee numbers have been about average, and while his approach and putting have been below Tour average on the season, the Puerto Rico performance shows he can light up a scorecard when momentum is on his side.

For DFS purposes, Blanchet at $6,800 is purely a GPP play in low percentages. If he shows up this week and contends, you'll be grateful for the differentiation, but in cash games, I'd avoid this price range entirely and instead reallocate that $6,800 toward a more reliable option above. The risk of a missed cut or a non-competitive week in this price tier is simply too high for cash-game exposure. Use Blanchet only in GPPs where you need roster flexibility to fit bigger names above, and accept that he'll miss more often than he hits in this role.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Gained Rankings:

• Total: 142nd

• Off-the-Tee: 73rd

• Approach: 78th

• Around the Green: 160th

• Putting: 135th

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