2026 Valero Texas Open

Introduction

The PGA Tour remains in Texas this week for the Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio’s Oak Course. With The Masters, the first major of the 2026 season, set for next week, this event serves as both a tune-up for those already qualified and a final opportunity for others to secure a spot with a win, which has led many top players who are already in the field to opt for preparation at Augusta instead.

Course Breakdown, Tournament History & Early Weather Forecast

This week, the PGA Tour heads to the Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio’s Oak Course in San Antonio, Texas. As the final event before The Masters, it presents a key opportunity for players to fine-tune their games ahead of Augusta or secure a last-minute invitation with a win.

TPC San Antonio’s Oak Course, which hosts all four rounds, is a par 72 measuring 7,438 yards. Designed by Greg Norman with player consultant Sergio Garcia, the course opened in 2010 and has become known as one of the more challenging stops on the PGA Tour, particularly when the Texas winds pick up.

The Oak Course places a premium on accuracy off the tee, with tree-lined fairways and native areas that can quickly punish errant drives. While distance can be an advantage, players who consistently find the fairway and avoid trouble will have a much easier time navigating the course and setting up scoring opportunities.

Approach play is once again critical this week, especially from mid-to-long iron distances. The course features a balanced mix of par 4s along with four par 5s, but many of the approach shots will still come from 150 - 200+ yards. Strong iron players who excel in strokes gained: approach and proximity from these ranges tend to separate themselves from the field.

The greens at TPC San Antonio are Bermudagrass and tend to play firm and fast, particularly if the weather stays dry. They are smaller and more contoured than what players saw last week, placing added importance on precision with approach shots. Around-the-green play is also a key factor, as missed greens can leave tricky chips and runoffs that demand creativity and touch.

One of the defining characteristics of the Oak Course is its exposure to the elements, particularly the wind. With several elevated and open holes, gusts can significantly impact ball flight and club selection. Players who are comfortable controlling trajectory and playing in windy conditions typically gain a sizable edge here.

The course offers a mix of scoring opportunities and demanding holes. The par 5s are the primary chances to make birdies or better, while several of the longer par 4s can play as true tests, often yielding bogeys across the field. The closing stretch in particular can be challenging, making it difficult to protect a lead late on Sunday.

Winning scores at the Valero Texas Open tend to vary depending on wind and course conditions, but they typically fall in the teens under-par. Recent winners and their scores to par are listed below:

• 2025 - Brian Harman (-9)

• 2024 - Akshay Bhatia (-20)

• 2023 - Corey Conners (-15)

• 2022 - J.J. Spaun (-13)

• 2021 - Jordan Spieth (-18)

• 2020 - Cancelled

• 2019 - Corey Conners (-20)

• 2018 - Andrew Landry (-17)

• 2017 - Kevin Chappell (-12)

• 2016 - Charley Hoffman (-12)

Overall, TPC San Antonio rewards a complete skill set, with an emphasis on driving accuracy, strong iron play, and the ability to handle difficult conditions. Players who can stay patient, take advantage of scoring holes, and avoid big numbers in the wind will be best positioned to contend.

The early forecast calls for typical Texas conditions, with warm temperatures and the potential for steady winds throughout the week. As always at TPC San Antonio, wind will be the primary defense of the course, and if it intensifies, especially over the weekend, it can significantly increase the difficulty and further emphasize ball striking, control, and course management.

Field Breakdown

The field for the Valero Texas Open is strong, though not quite as deep as some of the marquee events earlier in the season. Several highly ranked players are set to compete at TPC San Antonio’s Oaks Course, including Tommy Fleetwood, Collin Morikawa, Hideki Matsuyama, Ludvig Åberg, and Russell Henley.

Past champions are also in the mix, led by defending champion Brian Harman and joined by the likes of Jordan Spieth. Other former winners and top finishers add a blend of recent success and proven course experience, creating a competitive yet open field.

While the Texas Open may not feature the same depth as the Tour’s top-tier events, it consistently produces tight leaderboards and exciting finishes. With fewer top-25 players in the field, a wide range of competitors has the opportunity to contend. The Oaks Course rewards precise ball-striking and smart course management, with challenging par-4s, large undulating greens, and scoring opportunities on the par-5s. Risk-reward holes, particularly late in each round, make leaderboard volatility likely, giving players a chance to make a push as they fine-tune their games heading into the final stretch of the season.

Outright Betting Breakdown

Russell Henley +2500 (Boosted from +1800)

Henley ranks fourth in my model this week and is one of the first names that comes to mind when driving accuracy and approach play are at a premium, exactly the skill set required at TPC San Antonio.

It’s been a typically steady 2026 campaign for Henley, making the cut in five of his six starts. In those five made cuts, he’s finished inside the top 20 every time, highlighted by a T13 at The Players, a T8 at The American Express, and a T6 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. His course history at TPC San Antonio is modest at first glance, but it deserves context. In three career appearances, he missed the cut in 2016 and finished T52 in 2019, both coming earlier in his career, before a strong fourth-place finish here in 2024.

As expected, Henley thrives off the tee with accuracy rather than distance, consistently finding fairways but lacking elite length. He more than makes up for that with his approach play, which has been a hallmark of his game throughout his career. His short game is also a strength, ranking well above Tour average both around the greens and on the putting surfaces.

While a win has eluded him so far this season, his consistency puts him firmly in the mix. Given the form he’s shown, this sets up as an excellent opportunity for Henley to break through, build momentum, and carry it into The Masters as he looks to capture the first major title of his career.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 12th

• Off-the-Tee: 70th

• Approach: 31st

• Around the Green: 56th

• Putting: 14th

Collin Morikawa +2600 (Boosted from +2000)

Morikawa ranks second in my model this week, and had it not been for the back injury that forced his withdrawal at The Players, there’s a strong case he would’ve entered this event as the outright favorite, or at worst, second on the board behind Tommy Fleetwood.

Before that setback, Morikawa was in outstanding form. He returned to the winner’s circle at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, then followed it up with a T7 at The Genesis Invitational and a fifth-place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. While his course history at TPC San Antonio is limited, just one appearance resulting in a T75 in 2024, his current form suggests a much higher ceiling this time around.

Alongside Russell Henley, Morikawa is one of the first names that comes to mind when it comes to elite fairway-finding and iron play. He remains one of the most accurate drivers on Tour and appears to have added distance off the tee in 2026. He’s been the best approach player on the PGA Tour this season, and throughout his career, has consistently ranked among the game’s top long-iron players.

As always, the question mark lies in his short game. His chipping and putting can be volatile, particularly under pressure, but his ball-striking is so elite that it often offsets those inconsistencies.

The back injury is a legitimate concern, but at 20/1, I’m comfortable taking the risk. If he’s fully healthy, there’s a strong argument that Morikawa is the best player in this field.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 10th

• Off-the-Tee: 21st

• Approach: 1st

• Around the Green: 74th

• Putting: 100th

Sudarshan Yellamaraju +11500

As the books started to release odds on Sunday, I caught this one a little later than some, but I couldn’t pass it up. Yellamaraju ranks third in my model this week, and given how the rookie has been performing during the 2026 PGA Tour season, I fully endorse this play at 100/1 or higher.

He’s already delivered several standout performances this season, including a T13 at the Sony Open, a T17 at the Cognizant Classic, a T5 at The Players, and a T6 last week at the Texas Children’s Houston Open.

Yellamaraju has been exceptional off the tee in 2026, consistently gaining strokes in both driving distance and accuracy. He’s also made steady improvements with his irons and putting. The only area of concern is around the greens, which could pose some issues, but at this price point, it’s a risk worth taking.

Given the odds, this is clearly a long shot, but based on his performance and underlying metrics this season, TPC San Antonio should set up well for him. This is exactly the kind of opportunity where he could break through for his first PGA Tour win, and potentially punch his ticket to The Masters next week.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 14th

• Off-the-Tee: 26th

• Approach: 23rd

• Around the Green: 123rd

• Putting: 19th

I personally structure my outright betting cards to target a minimum return of 10x my unit.  In practice, this means I risk a total of one unit across all selections, with each individual bet paying out 10 units if it wins.  For example, if my unit is $100, each outright selection would return $1,000.  This approach aligns with my risk tolerance and ensures that hitting one winner in every ten events allows me to at least break even.

This is simply the system that works best for me.  I strongly encourage everyone to develop an approach that aligns with their own bankroll, risk tolerance, and betting goals.

Daily Fantasy Sports Breakdown

$10,000+ Price Range: Tomnmy Fleetwood ($10,500)

Fleetwood is one of two players in this price range, and I expect ownership to be fairly evenly split between him and Åberg.

For whatever reason, Fleetwood feels like he’s flown under the radar this season, but the results say otherwise. He’s teed it up just four times on the PGA Tour, finishing inside the top 10 in three of those starts. He’s also made two career appearances at TPC San Antonio, recording a T7 in 2024 and a T62 last year.

Fleetwood remains one of the most well-rounded players on Tour. He’s around field average in driving distance, but well above average in driving accuracy, approach play, around-the-green, and putting.

It’s still surprising that he’s only won once on the PGA Tour, but regardless, he offers one of the highest floors and ceilings in this field. No matter where ownership lands, he’s a strong DFS option this week.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 16th

• Off-the-Tee: 36th

• Approach: 50th

• Around the Green: 1st

• Putting: 122nd

$9,900 - $9,000 Price Range: Collin Morikawa ($9,400)

I expect him to be one of the highest-owned players on the slate, but at this price, I’m still comfortable playing him and differentiating elsewhere in my lineups.

Some of this will overlap with my Morikawa outright write-up, but it’s worth reiterating just how strong his form was prior to the setback. He returned to the winner’s circle at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, then followed it up with a T7 at The Genesis Invitational and a fifth-place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. While his course history at TPC San Antonio is limited, just one start resulting in a T75 in 2024, his current form points to a much higher ceiling this time around.

Morikawa is one of the first names that comes to mind when discussing elite driving accuracy and iron play. He continues to be one of the most accurate drivers on Tour and appears to have added some distance off the tee in 2026. He’s also been the best approach player on the PGA Tour this season and has long been one of the premier long-iron players in the game.

As always, the concern lies in his short game. His chipping and putting can be volatile, especially under pressure, but his ball-striking is so elite that it often compensates for those inconsistencies.

If not for the withdrawal in his last start due to a back injury, I believe he’d be priced in the $10,000+ range. Getting him in the low $9,000s feels like an opportunity I’m not willing to pass up.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 10th

• Off-the-Tee: 21st

• Approach: 1st

• Around the Green: 74th

• Putting: 100th

$8,900 - $8,000 Price Range: Daniel Berger ($8,400)

Berger is a player whose skill set fits TPC San Antonio very well, and I expect his ownership to land somewhere in the middle of this price range.

Through eight starts this season, Berger has made seven cuts, highlighted by a runner-up finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, a T6 at the Sony Open, and a T16 at the WM Phoenix Open. He’s played TPC San Antonio three times in his career, missing the cut in 2015 and 2019 before finishing T30 here last year.

Berger is an excellent driver of the golf ball, gaining on the field in both distance and accuracy. He’s also one of the top approach players on Tour right now. As usual, the question comes down to his short game, both his around-the-green play and putting can be liabilities.

That said, his tee-to-green game is strong enough to give him an elevated ceiling this week on a course like TPC San Antonio. If the putter or short game shows even slight improvement, he has the potential to contend deep into the weekend and pile up DFS points on Sunday.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 54th

• Off-the-Tee: 72nd

• Approach: 6th

• Around the Green: 151st

• Putting: 99th

$7,900 - $7,000 Price Range: Jordan Smith ($7,700)

It often takes time for DFS players to catch on to DP World Tour golfers making starts on the PGA Tour, so while ownership remains low, I’m happy to keep going back to players like Jordan Smith.

Smith has put together a solid PGA Tour season so far, making the cut in six of eight starts. His highlights include a third-place finish at the Valspar Championship, a T16 at the WM Phoenix Open, and a T23 at the Cognizant Classic. He’ll be making his debut this week at TPC San Antonio, a course that should suit his skill set well.

He’s excellent off the tee, gaining on the field in both driving distance and accuracy, and pairs that with above-average iron play. The concern, as usual, is the short game, he grades out below Tour average both around the green and on the greens.

At what’s projected to be low ownership, Smith stands out as a strong DFS option for me this week.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 45th

• Off-the-Tee: 17th

• Approach: 37th

• Around the Green: 114th

• Putting: 107th

$6,900 - $6,000 Price Range: Lee Hodges ($6,900)

If you need to dip into this price range, Lee Hodges is a viable option.

Hodges hasn’t had a particularly strong season on the PGA Tour, making five cuts in seven starts. His best finishes are a T6 at the Sony Open and a T18 at the Valspar Championship. He’s made four career appearances at TPC San Antonio, missing the cut three times but flashing upside with a T6 finish in 2023.

He’s a fairway finder off the tee and pairs that with above-average approach play. However, he lacks distance and typically grades below Tour average around the green and with the putter.

That said, the putter hasn’t been as much of a liability so far this season, which gives him some appeal at this price point.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 71st

• Off-the-Tee: 53rd

• Approach: 66th

• Around the Green: 137th

• Putting: 65th

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