2026 Valspar Championship

Introduction

The PGA Tour wraps up the Florida Swing this week with the Valspar Championship. Coming off two elevated events in a row, the field looks solid for now, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see a few withdrawals from some of the higher-end talent as the week approaches. Because of that, it may be worth getting your action in early in the outright betting market.

Course Breakdown, Tournament History & Early Weather Forecast

This week, the PGA Tour heads to the Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course) in Palm Harbor, Florida. The tournament is one of the final stops of the Florida Swing and is widely regarded as one of the most demanding non-major setups on the schedule, consistently producing tight leaderboards and dramatic finishes.

The Copperhead Course, which hosts all four rounds, is a par 71 measuring 7,352 yards. Designed by architect Larry Packard in 1971, the layout stands out from many other Florida courses due to its tree-lined fairways, subtle elevation changes, and strategic routing that places a premium on positioning rather than raw power.

Unlike many modern PGA Tour venues that reward aggressive driving, Copperhead requires players to carefully navigate narrow fairways and avoid numerous bunkers and water hazards scattered throughout the course. With 74 bunkers and water in play on nine holes, players who consistently keep the ball in play off the tee gain a significant advantage.

The course does not overwhelmingly favor long hitters, but it does demand strong ball-striking and precise iron play. Many of the most difficult holes feature long approach shots, with a large percentage of second shots coming from 175–200 yards or longer. Players who excel with mid-to-long irons and can consistently hit greens in regulation tend to separate themselves from the field.

Copperhead features Bermuda grass fairways and greens, which are often overseeded during the tournament. The greens average around 5,800 square feet and typically run around 12 on the Stimpmeter, making them relatively fast while still rewarding strong Bermuda putters.

The course is most famous for its closing stretch known as “The Snake Pit,” which includes holes 16 through 18. This three-hole stretch is widely considered one of the toughest finishing sequences on the PGA Tour. The 16th hole, a long par-4, begins the challenge, followed by the demanding 215-yard par-3 17th, before players finish on the tight, difficult par-4 18th. Late on Sunday, this stretch regularly creates major leaderboard swings and often determines the tournament champion.

Winning scores at the Valspar Championship are typically lower than many other Florida events due to the course’s difficulty. In most years, the winning score falls somewhere between 8 and 12 under par, although there have been occasional outliers when conditions are calmer. Recent winners and their scores to par are listed below:

• 2025 - Viktor Hovland (-11)

• 2024 - Peter Malnati (-12)

• 2023 - Taylor Moore (-10)

• 2022 - Sam Burns (-17)

• 2021 - Sam Burns (-17)

• 2019 - Paul Casey (-8)

• 2018 - Paul Casey (-10)

• 2017 - Adam Hadwin (-14)

• 2016 - Charl Schwartzel (-7)

Overall, the Copperhead Course rewards disciplined players who can consistently find fairways, control their approach shots, and avoid costly mistakes. While distance can still provide an advantage on certain holes, accuracy off the tee, strong iron play from longer approach ranges, and solid scrambling are far more predictive of success here.

The early forecast calls for typical Florida spring conditions, with warm temperatures and moderate humidity expected throughout the week. Wind can occasionally become a factor, especially on the more exposed holes, and if it picks up over the weekend, the already difficult Copperhead Course can become even more challenging for the field.

Field Breakdown

The field for the Valspar Championship is solid, though not quite as deep as the elevated events that preceded it during the Florida Swing. Still, several highly ranked players are set to tee it up at Innisbrook’s Copperhead Course, including Xander Schauffele (#10), J.J. Spaun (#11), Ben Griffin (#13), Justin Thomas (#14), Viktor Hovland (#18), Akshay Bhatia (#19), Jacob Bridgeman (#22), Keegan Bradley (#23), and Matt Fitzpatrick (#24). With nine players inside the top 25 of the Official World Golf Ranking in the field, the tournament still brings together a strong group capable of contending on a demanding course like Copperhead.

Several past champions are also returning to compete this week. Viktor Hovland, the defending champion after his victory in 2025, headlines that group. He is joined by Peter Malnati (2024), Taylor Moore (2023), Adam Hadwin (2017), and Jordan Spieth (2015), giving the field a strong mix of current contenders and players with proven success at the Copperhead Course.

While the Valspar Championship may not feature the same depth as the Tour’s signature events, it consistently produces competitive leaderboards and dramatic finishes. The tight, strategic nature of Copperhead rewards players who excel in ball-striking and course management, and the demanding “Snake Pit” closing stretch frequently reshuffles the leaderboard late on Sunday as players battle for the title.

Outright Betting Breakdown

Brooks Koepka +2800

Koepka ranks 22nd in my model this week and was my first click on Monday morning, largely due to his motivation to win, his recent form during the Florida Swing, and his proven ability to succeed at difficult golf venues.

Koepka has made just four starts since returning to the PGA Tour this season. After two early starts where it looked like he was still getting his footing back, he followed that up with a T9 at the Cognizant Classic and a T13 last week at The Players Championship. He has only played Copperhead twice in his career, missing the cut back in 2014 and finishing T12 in 2022. Koepka also attended Florida State University and has shown throughout his career that he’s comfortable playing in the state of Florida.

Tee to green, Koepka has been phenomenal since returning to the PGA Tour. Off the tee, he gains primarily through distance rather than accuracy, which can be slightly concerning at a course like Copperhead. However, his approach play has been rock solid, which is often a key factor at this tournament and a major reason I decided to add him to my outright card. His play around the greens has been slightly above Tour average, but despite gaining with the putter in his last two starts, that area has still held him back somewhat early in the 2026 season. In what is typically a lower-scoring event like we expect this week at Copperhead, Koepka doesn’t need to make a ton of birdies to stay in contention.

Koepka has proven throughout his career that he tends to play his best golf at demanding golf courses, and Copperhead fits that mold perfectly. He also needs a PGA Tour win to improve his status and gain entry into more elevated events. If you’ve followed Koepka’s career, you know he’s far more motivated by big wins and major moments than grinding through weaker-field events. That added motivation to secure a victory sooner rather than later is a big reason why I believe he has a strong chance to be the one lifting the trophy on Sunday.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 35th

• Off-the-Tee: 54th

• Approach: 3rd

• Around the Green: 41st

• Putting: 152nd

Corey Conners +3500

Conners ranks third in my model this week, and after a strong finish at The Players Championship last week, it appears he may finally be finding his footing in the 2026 season.

By his standards, it’s been a relatively slow start to the year. Conners has made six starts on the PGA Tour, making the cut in five of them but recording only two top-25 finishes. Typically, we see him pile up top-25s consistently, especially early in the season, and that hasn’t quite been the case so far in 2026. However, his T13 finish at The Players Championship was encouraging and suggested his game may be trending in the right direction. He has also performed well at Copperhead in the past, finishing T16 in 2018, T21 in 2021, and T8 in 2025 in his three career appearances.

Throughout his career, Conners has been known as a fairway finder with elite iron play. The part of his game that has most often held him back is the putter. The encouraging sign this week is that in his three appearances at Copperhead, he has gained strokes putting in two of those starts, suggesting the greens here may suit his eye.

As is often the case with Conners, his finish this week will likely come down to the short game. Still, I’m optimistic that returning to a course where he has previously gained on the field around the greens, combined with the slight improvement he showed in that area last week, gives him legitimate win equity at the Valspar Championship.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 85th

• Off-the-Tee: 50th

• Approach: 26th

• Around the Green: 130th

• Putting: 147th

Ryo Hisatsune +6600

Hisatsune ranks fifth in my model this week, and although his form has cooled off slightly, some of his recent results are hard to ignore.

In seven PGA Tour starts this season, Hisatsune has made the cut six times and recorded three consecutive top-10 finishes. While his results have dipped a bit since that run, a weaker field this week could provide a good opportunity for him to regain that form. He has also shown the ability to perform well at this event, finishing T33 in 2024 and T4 in 2025 in his two career appearances.

Those strong finishes earlier this season were largely driven by positive weeks with the putter. In both of his appearances at this event, he has also gained strokes on the field putting. When you combine that with his ability to consistently find fairways off the tee and his above Tour average approach play, his skill set appears to be a strong fit for the Copperhead Course.

Given his recent form and encouraging course history, this looks like a great opportunity for Hisatsune to break through for his first PGA Tour win at odds that appear more than fair.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 17th

• Off-the-Tee: 15th

• Approach: 22nd

• Around the Green: 36th

• Putting: 110th

Austin Smotherman +8400

Smotherman ranks fourth in my model this week and was one of my first clicks in the outright market given both the odds and his proven ability to produce spike performances on the PGA Tour this season.

He’s coming off a T13 finish at The Players Championship, where he was tied for the first-round lead, so his form entering this week is solid. Earlier this season, he also recorded a T8 at The American Express and a T2 at the Cognizant Classic. His other four starts this year have resulted in missed cuts or withdrawals, but when it comes to the outright market, if you're not finishing first, it’s essentially the same as missing the cut in terms of return.

Smotherman has played this event twice in his career, finishing T25 in 2022 and T36 in 2023.

Off the tee, Smotherman is a reliable fairway finder and pairs that with strong iron play. His short game can be inconsistent, particularly with the putter, but interestingly he has gained strokes putting in both of his previous appearances at Copperhead.

I’m hoping he can build on his solid course history and the strong finishes he’s already produced this season. It’s also encouraging that two of his best results this year have come in Florida, the same state hosting this week’s event.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 22nd

• Off-the-Tee: 28th

• Approach: 1st

• Around the Green: 115th

• Putting: 134th

I personally structure my outright betting cards to target a minimum return of 10x my unit.  In practice, this means I risk a total of one unit across all selections, with each individual bet paying out 10 units if it wins.  For example, if my unit is $100, each outright selection would return $1,000.  This approach aligns with my risk tolerance and ensures that hitting one winner in every ten events allows me to at least break even.

This is simply the system that works best for me.  I strongly encourage everyone to develop an approach that aligns with their own bankroll, risk tolerance, and betting goals.

Daily Fantasy Sports Breakdown

$10,000+ Price Range: Viktor Hovland ($10,400)

I think all three options in this price range will draw a decent amount of ownership, so I’m going with my favorite of the group and will be headlining my lineups this week with the defending champion, Viktor Hovland.

Coming off back-to-back T13 finishes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and The Players Championship, Hovland enters the week in solid form as he returns to Copperhead to defend last year’s title. Prior to his win, he also posted finishes of T3 in 2021 and T33 in 2022 at this event.

Hovland’s elite iron play is essential at Copperhead. Over his last 25 starts, he has lost strokes to the field on approach just once. He’s also above the Tour average in both driving accuracy and putting. In addition, he’s put significant work into his around-the-green game, an area that previously held him back, and actually led the field at The Players Championship in strokes gained around the green last week, which is an encouraging sign heading into this week.

As I mentioned earlier, ownership isn’t necessarily the main appeal with Hovland in this range. However, his current form combined with his strong track record at this venue makes him my preferred option in the price tier.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 40th

• Off-the-Tee: 134th

• Approach: 16th

• Around the Green: 28th

• Putting: 71st

$9,900 - $9,000 Price Range: Patrick Cantlay ($9,400)

It’s been a disappointing start to Patrick Cantlay’s 2026 campaign, which I expect will result in relatively low ownership compared to others in this price range. That makes him one of my favorite DFS plays on the board this week.

Cantlay has made six starts on the PGA Tour this season and has just two top-25 finishes. For a player of his caliber, that would certainly be considered a slow start. It’s also worth noting that both of those top-25 finishes came within his first three starts of the season, meaning his recent results haven’t been particularly encouraging. It’s also been a while since Cantlay has played Copperhead, but in two career appearances he missed the cut in 2013 before finishing runner-up in 2017.

Over the course of his career, Cantlay has been above the Tour average in most key statistical categories. He’s extremely solid off the tee and pairs that with an elite approach game. He’s also very competent around the greens, and while the putter can sometimes look shaky, the numbers still grade out as above Tour average. At times it can feel like Cantlay is one of the worst putters on Tour when you watch him, but statistically that simply isn’t the case. In his last two starts he has actually lost strokes to the field on approach, something that is very uncharacteristic for him, but he has gained significantly in driving accuracy, which is something I’m willing to lean on heading into this week.

There’s no hiding from the fact that Cantlay’s 2026 season has been underwhelming so far. However, the ownership discount I expect him to receive this week makes him well worth the risk in my opinion.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 53rd

• Off-the-Tee: 30th

• Approach: 80th

• Around the Green: 45th

• Putting: 119th

$8,900 - $8,000 Price Range: Wyndham Clark ($8,000)

I anticipate Wyndham Clark will come in as one of, if not the lowest-owned, players in this price range, and he has proven that he tends to play his best on challenging golf courses. That makes him another one of my favorite DFS plays on the board this week.

Clark is 6-for-6 in made cuts to start the 2026 season, but unfortunately that’s about where the positives end. He opened the season with a T13 at The American Express, but in the five events since, he hasn’t finished inside the top 40. Clark has played this event four times in his career, making three cuts, highlighted by a fifth-place finish in his most recent appearance in 2023.

Clark is one of the longer hitters on Tour and pairs that with an above Tour average approach game. He also brings an elite around-the-green game and a Tour-average putter. Driving accuracy can sometimes be an issue for Clark, but he has actually gained on the field in that category in four of his six starts so far in 2026.

This is another case where the current form is somewhat disappointing, but the projected low ownership combined with his high ceiling makes the risk worthwhile.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 84th

• Off-the-Tee: 110th

• Approach: 38th

• Around the Green: 26th

• Putting: 150th

$7,900 - $7,000 Price Range: Jordan Smith ($7,300)

Jordan Smith may be a lesser-known name for those who primarily follow the PGA Tour, but he’s very well known to fans of the DP World Tour. I expect his ownership to come in quite low this week, which makes him a fantastic option in this price range.

Smith earned full-time PGA Tour status for the 2026 season and has performed well so far. In six starts, he has made four cuts, including two top-25 finishes. To put that into perspective, he currently has more top-25 finishes this season than both Patrick Cantlay and Wyndham Clark. Smith will be making his debut at Copperhead this week, where I believe his skill set aligns well with the course.

Smith is an excellent driver of the golf ball, ranking above Tour average in both driving distance and driving accuracy. He’s also above Tour average on approach, gaining strokes on the field in 18 of his last 25 starts. The short game is the weaker part of his profile and will likely determine his ultimate ceiling in any given week.

Similar to my reasoning with Cantlay and Clark, the projected low ownership makes Smith worth the risk. The upside is certainly there if his ball-striking continues at its current level.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 75th

• Off-the-Tee: 32nd

• Approach: 69th

• Around the Green: 133rd

• Putting: 109th

$6,900 - $6,000 Price Range: Zac Blair ($6,800)

If you need to dip into this price range, which I don’t necessarily recommend, I like Zac Blair as an option.

Blair has split time between the PGA Tour and the Korn Ferry Tour during the 2026 season and is currently 4-for-4 in made cuts. His best result came a couple of weeks ago on the PGA Tour at the Puerto Rico Open, where he finished T8. Blair has played Copperhead four times in his career, making just one cut, but that appearance resulted in a T10 finish in 2023.

Blair is a fairway finder off the tee, consistently gaining on the field in driving accuracy whenever he tees it up. He also has above Tour average irons, which should help him navigate a challenging course like Copperhead and give him a solid chance to make the cut. His short game leaves plenty to be desired, but in this price range you’re rarely going to find a completely well-rounded golfer.

If you decide to plug Blair into your lineups, I think he has a strong chance to make the cut and accumulate some weekend points. He’s also shown the ability to spike with a top-10 finish at this event in the past, which makes him a reasonable option if you need to dip into this price range.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Gained Rankings: Not enough recorded starts.

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