2026 WM Phoenix Open

Introduction

The PGA Tour makes the trip from California to Arizona this week for the WM Phoenix Open. Widely regarded as the rowdiest event on Tour, it delivers an atmosphere unlike anything else and, outside of the majors, stands as one of the most entertaining tournaments of the season.

Course Breakdown, Tournament History & Early Weather Forecast

This week’s WM Phoenix Open will be contested at TPC Scottsdale, with all four rounds played on the Stadium Course. Unlike the previous few weeks, there is no course rotation, and the traditional 36-hole cut will be made after Friday.

The TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course is a par 71 measuring 7,261 yards. Designed by Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morrish, the course opened in 1986 and features three par 3s, four par 5s, and eleven par 4s. Desert terrain frames most holes, with water coming into play on several key shots, particularly along the finishing stretch. The layout offers plenty of risk-reward opportunities, most notably on the par-5 13th and the drivable par-4 17th.

The greens are overseeded Bermuda, typically rolling fast and true, while the fairways and rough are overseeded ryegrass, creating generous landing areas off the tee. While accuracy is always beneficial, TPC Scottsdale places a greater emphasis on approach play and scoring efficiency, especially with wedges and short irons. Players who consistently give themselves birdie looks tend to separate, as this is one of the more scorable venues on the PGA Tour. Scrambling still matters due to shaved runoff areas around the greens, but overall, an aggressive mindset is rewarded, particularly if conditions remain calm in what often turns into a shootout.

TPC Scottsdale is also home to the iconic par-3 16th hole, known as “The Stadium Hole.” It serves as much a mental test as a physical one, and while it rarely determines the winner statistically, it can dramatically swing momentum and leaderboard positioning late on Sunday.

TPC Scottsdale has hosted this event over the last decade, with the winners and their scores to par listed below:

• 2025 - Thomas Detry (-24)

• 2024 - Nick Taylor (-21)

• 2023 - Scottie Scheffler (-19)

• 2022 - Scottie Scheffler (-16)

• 2021 - Brooks Koepka (-19)

• 2020 - Webb Simpson (-17)

• 2019 - Rickie Fowler (-17)

• 2018 - Gary Woodland (-18)

• 2017 - Hideki Matsuyama (-17)

• 2016 - Hideki Matsuyama (-14)

Overall, this setup rewards strong ball strikers who can convert birdie chances, with minimal penalty for slightly errant driving. The average winning score over the past 10 years has been roughly 18 under par, and winning scores are expected to push well into the mid-teens, or even the low 20s, if conditions cooperate.

The early forecast for this week’s event looks excellent. Expect warm, mostly sunny conditions throughout the tournament, with light winds most days. Afternoon breezes should generally remain in the 5 - 10 mph range, with Sunday likely calmer, setting the stage for another highly scoreable week at TPC Scottsdale.

Field Breakdown

We have a strong field this week at the WM Phoenix Open, featuring 10 of the Official World Golf Ranking’s current top-25 players: Scottie Scheffler (#1), Xander Schauffele (#6), J.J. Spaun (#7), Ben Griffin (#8), Justin Thomas (#9), Harris English (#11), Sepp Straka (#12), Viktor Hovland (#14), Hideki Matsuyama (#16), Collin Morikawa (#18), Cameron Young (#20), and

Maverick McNealy (#22).

In addition to those ranked inside the top 25, the field includes a strong supporting cast. Brooks Koepka, a multiple past Phoenix Open champion making another start after his return to the PGA Tour. We also have Sam Burns, Tony Finau, Wyndham Clark, Jordan Spieth, Billy Horschel, Rickie Fowler, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Corey Conners set to compete.

Several past WM Phoenix Open champions are also set to compete this week, including Scottie Scheffler (2022, 2023), Nick Taylor (2024), Hideki Matsuyama (2016, 2017), Rickie Fowler (2019), Webb Simpson (2020), and Gary Woodland (2018). Course history has proven to be meaningful at TPC Scottsdale, and familiarity with the Stadium Course often translates to sustained success.

With elite talent throughout the field and a setup that encourages aggressive play, the stage is set for another electric week in the desert, both on the leaderboard and inside the ropes at one of the most unique atmospheres in professional golf.

Outright Betting Breakdown

Cameron Young +3250

Cameron Young ranks second in my model this week behind only Scottie Scheffler, making him a must-bet for me.

Young finally got the monkey off his back with a win at last season’s Wyndham Championship and carried that strong form through the end of the year. He opened the new season with a T22 at the Farmers Insurance Open and I’m expecting him to build on that performance this week.

TPC Scottsdale sets up extremely well for Young. He grades out well above Tour average in every key metric, with the lone exception being driving accuracy, but even there, he has gained on the field in six of his last eight starts. He’s also been very reliable at this event, never missing the cut in four appearances and recording two top-15 finishes in his two most recent starts.

Overall, this is an excellent spot for Cameron Young, and I think he brings plenty of win equity into the week at TPC Scottsdale.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 20th

• Off-the-Tee: 24th

• Approach: 22nd

• Around the Green: 69th

• Putting: 94th

Brooks Koepka +5000

Brooks Koepka ranks 50th in my model this week, but I saw more than enough last week to justify backing him in the outright market at a venue where he’s had tremendous success throughout his career.

Koepka made his long-awaited return to the PGA Tour from LIV last week, advancing through the cut and finishing T56. On the surface, that result doesn’t jump off the page, but the underlying numbers tell a very different story. His ball striking was phenomenal, while the putter completely betrayed him. Putting has been an issue for Koepka on LIV, and that struggle carried over, as he lost roughly two strokes per round on the greens. Encouragingly, the putter showed signs of life on Sunday, and Koepka has been vocal about making it a point of emphasis heading into this week.

Koepka has played this event five times in his career and has made the cut in all five appearances, with two wins and an additional top-five finish. Notably, he hasn’t lost strokes putting in any of those starts, which suggests there may be something about these greens that suits his eye.

Given the price relative to his talent level, this is not a spot I’m willing to ignore. Koepka is playing with plenty of motivation as he looks to climb the rankings, qualify for elevated events, and earn additional PGA Tour starts. And historically, Brooks Koepka with a chip on his shoulder tends to bring out his best golf.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 102nd

• Off-the-Tee: 85th

• Approach: 21st

• Around the Green: 7th

• Putting: 172nd

Sahith Theegala +5500

Sahith Theegala ranks 35th in my model this week, but the form he’s shown to open the 2026 season, combined with his strong history at TPC Scottsdale, is impossible to ignore.

After battling injuries for much of last year, Theegala has come out firing in 2026 with three consecutive made cuts and back-to-back top-10 finishes in his last two starts. He now heads to a venue where he’s been extremely comfortable, making the cut in all four career appearances and posting two top-five finishes. One of those easily could have been a win if not for an unfortunate bounce that sent his ball into the water late on Sunday.

Theegala’s short game is starting to resemble the magic we’ve seen at his best, and both his driving and ball striking have been steady to begin the season.

At a course where history tends to matter, and with Theegala entering the week off consecutive top-10s, I believe he brings legitimate win equity, even in a field that includes Scottie Scheffler.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 24th

• Off-the-Tee: 127th

• Approach: 84th

• Around the Green: 15th

• Putting: 15th

Pierceson Coody +7500

Pierceson Coody ranks 20th in my model this week, but his statistical profile and strong start to the 2026 campaign made him impossible to ignore.

Coody has opened the season on fire, posting three consecutive top-20 finishes. While this will be his tournament debut at the WM Phoenix Open, his game profiles as an excellent fit for TPC Scottsdale. He brings plenty of length off the tee, paired with a very solid approach game and reliable short game.

To begin the year, Coody has gained strokes across the board in all the key metrics. If that trend continues, his first PGA Tour victory feels more like a matter of when, not if.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 15th

• Off-the-Tee: 21st

• Approach: 67th

• Around the Green: 26th

• Putting: 57th

Haotong Li +12500

Haotong Li ranks ninth in my model this week, and when paired with the odds available this morning, he quickly became a must-bet for me.

Li earned his PGA Tour card through promotion from the DP World Tour and has wasted no time making an impact in the 2026 season. He’s opened the year with three consecutive made cuts and back-to-back top-15 finishes in his two most recent starts. Those results have been driven by elite ball-striking numbers, as his irons have been scorching hot. He’s complemented that with a strong off-the-tee game and a competent short game, an ideal combination for success at TPC Scottsdale.

Li is no stranger to winning, with four DP World Tour victories already on his résumé. I’m backing the proven winner to capture his first PGA Tour title this week at TPC Scottsdale.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 13th

• Off-the-Tee: 13th

• Approach: 13th

• Around the Green: 70th

• Putting: 112th

Max Homa +12500

Max Homa ranks sixth in my model this week, and as I’ve mentioned in previous articles, that’s more than enough of a nudge for me to back one of my favorite players on Tour.

Homa showed signs of life during the fall swing and opened his 2026 campaign with a solid T27 at The American Express. He followed that up with a missed cut at last week’s Farmers Insurance Open, where he lost a significant number of strokes around the greens, an uncharacteristic weakness for him. He now heads to TPC Scottsdale, a venue where he enjoyed success earlier in his career, making the cut in his first five appearances and posting two top-15 finishes. That said, he has missed the cut in his two most recent starts at this event.

Historically, Homa has been a very well-rounded player, grading out at or above Tour average across the key statistical categories. Given the outright price and how strong he’s been off the tee and on approach over his last 10 starts, I’m simply looking for the short game to rebound. If it does, he has a clear path to capturing his seventh PGA Tour victory this week.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 37th

• Off-the-Tee: 19th

• Approach: 20th

• Around the Green: 140th

• Putting: 90th

I personally structure my outright betting cards to target a minimum return of 10x my unit.  In practice, this means I risk a total of one unit across all selections, with each individual bet paying out 10 units if it wins.  For example, if my unit is $100, each outright selection would return $1,000.  This approach aligns with my risk tolerance and ensures that hitting one winner in every ten events allows me to at least break even.

This is simply the system that works best for me.  I strongly encourage everyone to develop an approach that aligns with their own bankroll, risk tolerance, and betting goals.

Daily Fantasy Sports Breakdown

$10,000+ Range: Xander Schauffele $10,500

From a pure leverage standpoint, Xander Schauffele is a must-play in DFS this week, in my opinion.

Schauffele made his season debut last week at the Farmers Insurance Open, where he missed the cut and lost strokes both off the tee and around the greens. I’m willing to throw that start out, especially given his long-standing success at TPC Scottsdale. In six career appearances at this event, his worst finish was a T17 back in 2018, meaning he’s finished inside the top 20 in all six starts.

When you combine that elite course history with his strong leverage position, Schauffele stands out as my favorite DFS play this week.

2025 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 56th

• Off-the-Tee: 91st

• Approach: 12th

• Around the Green: 97th

• Putting: 139th

$9,900 - $9,000 Range: Cameron Young $9,800

As mentioned in my outright betting section, Cameron Young ranks second in my model this week. While I expect him to draw a fair amount of ownership, I still like him in this price range given his clear win equity.

Young has been playing his best golf since breaking through with his first PGA Tour victory at the Wyndham Championship. He brings an ideal skill set to TPC Scottsdale, highlighted by a strong tee-to-green profile and a historically reliable short game.

When you pair that with his event history, four made cuts in four appearances and two top-15 finishes in his two most recent starts, it’s easy to see why Young carries a very high DFS ceiling this week.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 20th

• Off-the-Tee: 24th

• Approach: 22nd

• Around the Green: 69th

• Putting: 94th

$8,900 - $8,000 Range: Chris Gotterup $8,300

There are plenty of strong options in this price range, and while he likely won’t come in at low ownership, Chris Gotterup stands out as a strong DFS play this week thanks to his high ceiling and excellent course fit at TPC Scottsdale.

Gotterup has been in outstanding form, with two wins in his last 10 starts, including a season-opening victory at the Sony Open in Hawaii. He followed that up with a T18 finish last week at the Farmers Insurance Open. His skill set checks every box for success at TPC Scottsdale, combining distance off the tee, strong approach play, and a reliable putter.

The ceiling for Gotterup is clear, his third PGA Tour win in his last 11 starts, and his floor is solid as well, making him a valuable and well-rounded DFS option this week.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 4th

• Off-the-Tee: 3rd

• Approach: 39th

• Around the Green: 31st

• Putting: 49th

$7,900 - $7,000 Range: Jacob Bridgeman $7,100

Unfortunately, due to Scottie Scheffler’s pricing in DFS this week, Bridgeman is likely to carry higher ownership than I’d typically expect. Even so, I still think he’s a strong option in this price range.

I hadn’t fully realized how impressive his start to the 2026 season had been until digging into his profile. He opened with a top-five finish at the Sony Open in Hawaii and followed it up with a top-15 at The American Express. While he missed the cut in his tournament debut here last year, his current form, especially at this DFS price point, is hard to ignore. Bridgeman is a well-rounded player whose biggest strength lies in his short game, and his irons have been scorching to start the season. He’s also made meaningful gains off the tee.

From a DFS perspective, I can easily see Bridgeman hanging around late into Sunday and extending his strong run of form with another top-20 finish, which would be more than enough value for a golfer priced in the low $7K range.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 8th

• Off-the-Tee: 51st

• Approach: 25th

• Around the Green: 84th

• Putting: 18th

$6,900 - $6,000 Range: Mac Meissner $6,800

Meissner is my top pick in this price range as an extremely well-rounded golfer who has now made 10 consecutive cuts.

While his finishes aren’t always flashy, which is tough to find in this price range, Meissner consistently provides weekend points, making him a reliable option for lineups. He missed the cut in his tournament debut here last year, but his steady recent form makes that less of a concern.

As I mentioned, his game is well-rounded, with particular strength in approach shots and around the greens. He may not carry a huge ceiling at this event, but his high floor makes him a valuable and dependable play at this price point.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 83rd

• Off-the-Tee: 54th

• Approach: 85th

• Around the Green: 75th

• Putting: 117th

Gambling Disclaimer

All betting tips, opinions, and suggestions are provided for informational and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or gambling advice.  There is no guarantee of results, and past performance is not indicative of future outcomes.

Gambling involves financial risk, and you should only wager money you can afford to lose.  Always gamble responsibly and in accordance with the laws and regulations applicable in your jurisdiction.

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