Andrew's Astara Championship (KFT) Preview

A disappointing week for our three in the Panama Championship, where the best you can say is that they all made the cut. We were never close to a lead, and I confess that this event continues to confound me. I’m delighted to have it behind me. I’m also astonished that Ian Holt has had such an electric start to his season; he’s all but guaranteed himself a PGA card for next season and will of course get a battlefield promotion with another win. For a thirty-year-old with two prior top tens at this level, it was utterly unexpected, though he’s clearly found a method that works and I’m pleased for him. Won’t be someone I’m looking to back at the newly depressed prices, however. 

We move onwards through our “pre-USA” swing through Latin America and this week we’re in Bogota, Colombia, for a very different event and the two easiest courses that the field will see before we get back the USA and the low-scoring grind. Let’s get into it.

The Tournament

As mentioned, two courses at Bogota Country Club this week, and the field are split across them over Thursday and Friday, before those making the cut play a further 36-holes at the Lagos Course, the tougher of the two. Which isn’t to say it is particularly tricky – the winning score of -18 last year was about average, but the Pacos course, which is shorter and much more straightforward contributes much of that. It is a 6,254 yard par-70 and we absolutely have a 59 watch in place. This is where Cristobal del Solar scored a 57 in 2024 (Aldrich Potgieter added a 59 the following day.) 

At 7,237 yards for a par-71, the Lagos Course is certainly longer and more demanding, but remember that we’re up in the Andes and altitude makes these shots easier – we’re at almost twice the altitude of Denver. So despite the success of long hitters like del Solar and Vincent Norrman (winner in 2022) this isn’t a course that demands enormous length off-the-tee. Last year Kevin Velo won a playoff ahead of Brian Campbell, which tells you everything you might wish to know about the ability of shorter hitter to contend.

So what is needed? Well, experience at altitude helps – and plenty in this field have played Boise or Utah, as well as this event and others in Latin America, or in South Africa. Putting, particularly on grainy greens, will be tested. Players need to be getting close to holes to get birdie chances, but whether they are bomb-and-gouge types or good iron players is entirely by choice.

The Selections

I confess to being delighted about the price of my first and most confident pick. Camillo Villegas may have lived in the USA since he went to college but he grew up in Colombia and knows these courses and will have huge home support. He’s also proved over the last couple of years that he’s still a class act on occasion, with a PGA top ten just five starts ago and a win in 2023. Both of those performances came at Port Royal on Bermuda, a short and relatively straightforward par-71 just like this. He was fourth here back in 2020 on his last start.

At a shorter price, my second selection is SY Noh, who might just be one of those players who is too good for this level but isn’t priced accordingly. He’s at his best on and around the greens, which is ideal here, and he was 19^th here last year. He was making a bright start to his year at the Bahamas Classic, sitting fifth at the cut before he fell ill and withdrew. He also finished last season with three straight top twenties. There will be an electric round from someone this week and it probably won’t be him, but if you’re looking for someone with the quality to put four great rounds together, that’s sounding much more likely.

Finally, I want to take a risk on Yuta Sugiura, for whom altitude and recent form are a question mark but who is ideally suited to this test and is one of the more exciting Japanese talents making their way in the game at this level. He won a Japan Tour event as an Amateur in 2023 and has won every season since. Coincidentally, he also withdrew due to illness from his last start (he was ahead of the cutline after one round of the Sony) but assuming he’s on form and putting as he can on the Japan Tour, this price could look very silly on Sunday.

There are lots of golfers who I think have great chances this week and I wouldn’t want to put anyone off the likes of Ben Kohles, Blades Brown or John Pak, all of whom could go well, but in the end value is the key and that’s what I have gone looking for.

• Camillo Villegas, 50/1

• SY Noh, 33/1

• Yuta Sugiura, 175/1

All 1pt e/w, ¼ odds 5 places, Bet365.  Better odds may come available in due course.

Bonus Extra - FRL!

This is a time-critical addition for those in the UK. As I've said above, the Pacos course is significantly easier and seems to reward bombers. To my great surprise, Bet365 have opened a First Round Leader market in advance of tee times coming out. Obviously, this means that your bet is effectively a double/parlay. Can you win the coin toss and get a Thursday start on the Pacos course, and can you then finish well? Even with the risk of significant losses before we start, I think it is worth taking on. Particularly as a top-five place is easier when effectively only half the field is involved (assuming some of our picks end up on the right course.) So bet this before the tee times come out - or, if the market is still available after they do, go in with both feet on players drawn on the correct course.

I've gone for four players with decent form on this course, streaky putters, and in most cases long hitters. All are overvalued in my opinion.

• Camillo Villegas, 55/1

• Kevin Dougherty, 55/1

• Cristobal del Solar, 100/1

• Harry Hillier, 190/1

All 0.5pts e/w, 1/4 odds 5 places, Bet365.