Andrew's BMW Pro-Am (KFT) Preview

If you think of the Korn Ferry Tour as the “little brother” of the PGA Tour, it was imitating big bro last week, as Alvaro Ortiz (younger brother of the more famous Carlos) did his best Russel Henley impression with birdies on the two final holes of regulation and the first playoff hole, overtaking the desperately unlucky Ross Steelman, who was the frustrated maiden in the Eric Cole role. Frustrations for us too, as Steelman was a pick last week, whilst we saw three players (Sandy Scott, Dylan Menante and Hayden Buckley) all looking good at various points but all let down with poor rounds on either Saturday or Sunday to fall out of contention. With a tip of the cap for Ross Steelman, who certainly looks ready for the PGA Tour next year, let’s move on.

 

The Tournament

This week sees us return to the BMW Charity Pro-Am, played across two courses in Greer, which puts us just north of Greenville, South Carolina. Don’t get confused by the course names – the secondary course is known as both Spartanburg and as The Carolina Country Club. There is no change of venue. That course (6,770 yard par 70) hosts one of the first two rounds, whilst Thornblade Club (7,045 yard par 71) hosts the other half of the field on Thursday and Friday, and everyone who makes the cut over the weekend. 

This is not difficult golf. Austin Smotherman shot a -25 260 last year to win by three, and whilst that was a record since they moved to Spartanburg, Mito Periera has gone even lower. With calm and dry weather expected, I’d say 59 watch at both courses is reasonable. Michael Feagles grabbed a 59 at Spartanburg in 2023 and Brandon Harkins a 60 at Thornblade in 2024 (Friday.) As you’d expect, the course plays slightly tougher over the weekend when the amateurs are no longer involved and the pins can be tightened. Finding a winner here is pretty straightforward, on the face of it – we’re looking for good players. I know that sounds silly, but these are courses where the cream tends to rise towards the top, and the specific skill-sets aren’t that significant. 

Age (and, more broadly, course management/nous) doesn’t seem a factor – this was the event for first KFT wins for Adrien Dumont de Chassart, Ryan Gerard and Stephan Jaeger – but all of those players went on to be pretty handy, and that’s the common theme. If there is a quality that seems significant, it is approach play, but I wouldn’t have a preference between long bombers or accurate plodders, and whilst I think putting will probably be vital, it won’t be especially challenging, so someone streaky could come through.

This really is a case of going through the odds carefully and looking for high-quality players with the ability to go very low. Local form, course form, recent form, game type, all the usual means of reducing your shortlist… I don’t think so, regrettably. As a result, I've got two very high-priced golfers who I think have the skills to win at this level among my trio.

 

The Selections

My first pick is for a potential maiden winner on the KFT who is badly overdue. Mitchell Meissner is somehow into his fourth year at this level without a win. He has ten top tens, however, and was runner up at the (short, low-scoring, par 71) Lecom Sunshine earlier this year. He’s 25^th for GIR% and ninth for SG: approach (again, remember that the latter doesn’t cover the entire season.) He’s shown a penchant for going low, especially at the weekend – he was sixth here last year with a tournament-best 64 in the final round, having been 11^th and 12^th on previous visits. He was also fourth in Bogota last year in another two-course shootout, and was tenth at -19 two starts ago in Knoxville. This is an event he clearly enjoys and as he’s playing well and can go very low, I’m keen to follow him.

A second maiden who likes low-scoring courses, Trey Winstead is belatedly returning to form, his 34^th last week marking the first made cut since the beginning of February. Last year he was 13^th after three missed cuts, and he’s another who has gone well at similar events such as Lecom (fourth) and Chile (second and seventh.) He tops the KFT in SG: putting and is a massive price to pull off a return to that level of form.

Finally, there aren’t many people who follow the KFT closely enough for this to be a tired cliché, but it is certainly a very straightforward selection. When the courses are easy and there’s the chance of a 59, you have to look long and hard at Cristobal del Solar. Sure enough, he’s played this twice, grabbing 24^th and third, and as he comes here on the back of a string of very poor results (he’s missed cuts in five of his last six starts and finished last in the other) he’s available at understandably generous odds. He can go low, however, and grabbed a 61 to win first round leader for us in Bogota (eighth at the end) and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him pull a great week out of nowhere once again.

With two picks at very large prices this week, I wouldn’t blame anyone for looking at alternative markets – Bet365 offer reduced odds for each-way with ten places, whilst top ten markets, first round leader markets by course, leaderboard spreads and other means of supporting these players will all come available by the time these guys tee off. They’re all worth supporting however you choose to structure your bets.

• Mitchell Meissner, 33/1

• Trey Winstead, 225/1

• Cristobal del Solar, 175/1

All 1pt e/w, 1/4 odds 5 places, Bet365