Andrew's Cape Town Open (HPT) Preview

Golf betting really does have a way of kicking you in the nuts, especially when you don’t expect it. Deon Germishuys played nicely for three rounds but with a win-only bet I didn’t think much of my chances. Then he shot into the lead as MJ Viljoen went bogey-bogey-bogey from the 15^th, before making birdie on the final hole, entering a playoff and beating our selection. This, despite no finish better than fifth at this level, and with two missed cuts on his last two starts in this event. Still, we pick ourselves up and move on, as the HPT heads down from altitude to a rather classier joint on the coast.

The Tournament

One way that last week did live up to expectations was the dominance of South Africans, who filled seven of the top ten places including both playoff participants. Cooler, coastal and without altitude to contend with, Royal Cape Golf Club has proved a closer contest between “locals” and “visitors”, with Europeans winning three-of-the-last-six events. Last year, Englishman Jamie Rutherford struck a -14 274 to win by two from a leaderboard featuring four South Africans, four Europeans, a Kiwi and an American. 

Rutherford is something of an HPT veteran and this is certainly a course where nous and course experience seem to have a significant impact. There’s a European, classical feel to this course, which is the oldest in South Africa (and has a royal warrant) and is a tight, challenging and short course at 6,892 yards for a par-72. With moderate breezes (it’ll be windiest on Sunday) and warm, dry conditions this is a test first and foremost of accuracy from tee to green, with scrambling and course management also critical factors.

I’m looking for recent form, but it is notable that we’ve seen a few players go well here repeatedly; JC Ritchie won twice – and somehow finished out of the places for us during a career year last season – as did Ben Follet-Smith, though it wasn’t a Challenge Tour event when he won in 2019. Rutherford and Mikael Lindberg also telegraphed their wins with previous top tens, so I’m certainly seeing this as a predictive course and that will matter significantly. It is also no surprise (coastal, tight, classical) that the HPT events in France, the Open de Bretagne and Le Vaudreuil have some significant crossover, as does the DPWT event at two venerable African courses, the Magical Kenya Open.

The Selections

It’s not going to be long before Dan Erickson finds his way onto my shortlist, but his course record is poor and that’s a deal breaker for me this week. Jean Hugo has the course record and was good last week but I simply can’t believe that he’s got two consecutive weeks of contention in him any more. In truth I found this a tough event to handicap and I imagine that hindsight is going to be a powerful lens through which to view the leaderboard. Still, I think there is value in the three below.

First on my list is a man who somewhat blew his price on Sunday afternoon, Ryan van Velzen. He was second here on his last start (he played the DPWT with indifferent results last year) in 2024, has been 11^th on his last two starts in the Magical Kenya and has exactly the right sort of neat and tidy game to excel here. The young man is potentially excellent, and was quietly putting in a solid preparation up in the highveld last week… right up until he birdied his last six holes to catapult himself up the leaderboard to tied fifth. I fear that’s knocked a few points off his price, but he’s still value in my eyes.

Second on the list is a real veteran, hopefully returning to form and at a venue which should really suit. Marc Warren was great in a few starts at this level last season and started this year brightly enough with a 22^nd at the SDC. He’s a great wind player, with countless strong performance in his home Scottish Open as well as events like the Made in Himmerland, he putts well and he might be too good for some of the harder-hitting youngsters out here. 

He's joined by an old favourite of mine, and this is the first time in years I’ve backed Tapio Pulkkannen. This test of tee to green and wind performance is ideal for the trilbied legend, who plays here despite holding a weak DPWT category, and can prove he’s in the wrong class here. Many of his best performances have come in the wind (the Dunhill Links, Portugal, the Canaries) and he has a solid record in Kenya, as well as a solid performance in his sole start here, when he led after 36 holes before fading. 

• Ryan van Velzen, 22/1, 2pts win only, Bet365

• Marc Warren, 125/1, 1pt e/w, ¼ odds 5 places, Bet365

• Tapio Pulkkannen, 40/1, 1pt e/w, ¼ odds 5 places, Bet365