Andrew's Chile Classic (KFT) Preview

On Thursday evening, it felt like the Argentine Open was going well, with Mason Andersen among the leaders after an opening 63 left him on -7 and in a share of the lead. He was still on -7 two days later and the tournament was gone, leading to a very frustrating run for my selections. Congratulations to Alistair Docherty on a maiden win (and a Masters' Invitation) for one of the more reliable players on this tour. He was fifth in greens in regulation last year when finishing 50^th in the money rankings; he’s likely to win a card this year, a decade on from his Walker Cup appearance and it is hard to say he doesn’t deserve a chance. The Tour moves on with one more event before a break and a return to the USA. This is the fourth year continuous year of the Chile Classic (it also ran for a few years in the 2010's) and it is always a tough puzzle for the punters. Let’s get into it.

The Tournament

I had a good look at this event last year when I commented that “It’s a wide open event and I took longer figuring out my picks for this tournament than for any of my other previews on this site, as it was so hard to rule out any type of player with ease” before finding three players who all made the cut comfortably and failed to take any place near the top of the leaderboard come Sunday. I was right, though, that we can’t rule anyone out. At sub-7,000 yards for a par-70, the Prince of Wales course in Santiago looks at first blush like a plotters’ course, but there are a few places where bombing can be a real advantage. That’s borne out by high finishes for the likes of Tim Widing, but he’s something of an outlier. 

Really we see well-rounded golfers go well here – Taylor Dickson won two years ago, and Logan McAllister last year, and neither are unusually short or long, nor noted for any particular element of their game. 2023 winner Ben Kohles is, I suppose, noted for being a short and accurate tee-to-green merchant and that’s probably marginally the choice here, but I can’t say that length is irrelevant, nor would I want a player who can’t putt or scramble. Making this even trickier, it isn’t necessarily a barometer of class – the last two winners didn’t get a PGA card at the end of the year – and you can’t rely on form coming in (Kohles had a previous top ten that year, but Dickson didn’t, whilst McAllister was not long past an injury to start the year and had only made one cut.) 

Winning scores have been in the mid-teens which does at last give us something unusual for the KFT; this isn’t a birdie fest for all it isn’t long. We certainly want to see players with an ability to avoid bogeys on tough holes, to grind a little and to take chances when they come. Nous is at a premium, together with an all-round game. I’m also keen to avoid favourites given the unlikely results we’ve seen thrown up recently. Once again, we can expect perfect golfing weather for all four days.

The Selections

Having said I didn’t want to back favourites, the top of the market (Mason Andersen, Ian Holt, Bronson Burgoon, Trent Phillips) is full of likely players. With a number of golfers who might have suited this event (especially SY Noh) taking part in the opposite field PGA event in Puerto Rico they all deserve their place towards the top of the market. I’m not sure they represent value at the prices, however, and my three picks are from a little deeper in the pile.

First of them is my old friend Sandy Scott, who I backed in the season-opening event in the Bahamas but who I’ve resisted since. However, this return to an all-rounders’ course and the need for some conservative golf among the birdies is ideal for the talented Scot who is due a breakthrough win. Last year saw his season kick up a gear with a seventh here after a string of ordinary results and I’m hoping for something similar but more spectacular this year. He arrives in better form with a top twenty in Argentina and needs to make a move if he’s to pick up the card I think he should win this year.

Second on my list is Nick Gabrelcik, the young Floridian who is playing the right sort of game for this event, ranking eighth in greens in regulation in the young season so far, and who is accurate and unspectacular in what he does but highly effective. He won 13 titles as an amateur and since turning pro in 2024 has been steadily proving he belongs at this level. His putting has held him back so far this season but that’s not a career-long issue and as a solid striker of the ball I would expect him to manage effectively on these small greens and, like Scott, take a step up the rankings towards the card-winning heights that he is expected to scale.

Finally, I’m taking another golfer of whom I’m particularly fond and who I think the market has somewhat missed. I didn’t think I’d be backing Yuta Sugiura but at 150/1 I think it’d be rude not to. Like Scott (third) and Gabrelcik, Sugiura is in the top ten for greens in regulation at ninth, and after two weak starts he finished 15^th last week and is hopefully returning to the form that saw him win on the Japanese Tour in each of his three seasons as a professional. He’s a solid all-rounder (you can add 24^th in putting on the Japan Golf Tour and 11^th overall to his greens in regulation prowess) and this sort of short, classical course will be very familiar to him.  I think he represents spectacular value.

• Sandy Scott, 60/1

• Nick Gabrelcik, 70/1

• Yuta Sugiura, 150/1

All 1pt e/w, ¼ odds 5 places, Bet365. 

Better prices may come available as other bookmakers price up this event, but be aware that if the top of the market sees defections to Puerto Rico prices may get worse. I’m not inclined to wait.