Andrew's Hotel Planner Tour Grand Final Preview

Well, folks, we’ve made it. This will be my last event preview of 2025, and it is a good one. The Grand Final on the Hotel Planner Tour is by far the best-televised feeder tour event (in Europe, certainly – I know the Golf Channel isn’t bad with KFT coverage) and it is a good field at a good course. With 20 cards to play for, the top 45 players in the field head to Majorca. This is what they’ve been building up to all season. Let’s not waste any time getting into it.

The Tournament

As ever, we’re going to see much better coverage than usual for this final event, which isn’t opposite a DPWT tournament. The official site has a fairly handy guide to the 45 players, and if you want the full rankings, they are here. Don’t forget that cards will be handed out down to 22^nd on the rankings as JC Ritchie and Renato Paratore already have cards as a result of “battlefield promotions” for their three wins. This means less than it would on the PGA tour as the new season starts in less than a month (KFT battlefield promotions get players into the Fall Series, which can be a heck of an advantage) but does expand the number of players. We’ll do more over the brief offseason on what prospects these graduates will have, on the overall trends of the season, and all that jazz, but we do have a tournament ahead of us and the chance to bet on it shouldn’t be missed. The basics first – we’re at the Club de Golf Alcanada in Port d’Alcudia on the island of Mallorca (I don’t know how you build a road to Majorca either, but let’s not worry about that.) Despite being back in Europe at the very end of October we can expect mostly dry and calm conditions and it’ll be warm enough. This is a fairly exposed course in places so that matters.

There are a lot of undulations around this coastal layout, and it is greener and more tree-lined than you might expect – this isn’t a particularly “linksy” challenge. It is a 7,128 yard par-72 with some very long holes (the par-five 7^th and 11^th play to 633 and 606 yards respectively) and some very short holes (the 289 yard par-four 15^th.) On paper, then, not much of an advantage for longer players, but the good ones have thrived. This is the fourth time this course has played host to the Grand Final and the three previous winners are Kristoffer Reitan, Marco Penge, and Nathan Kimsey. 

Reitan reached -23 to win by one-stroke from Angel Ayora and Rasmus Neergard-Petersen (there was such a good group on last year’s Challenge Tour) and was -15 on the par-fives. In 2023 they faced much worse conditions and Marco Penge reached -10 to beat Tom Vaillant by six strokes, essentially by minimising bogeys. In 2022 Nathan Kimsey, nobody’s idea of a bomber, reached -9 (one shot ahead of Bryce Easton and short-hitting John Parry) – but with Jeong weon Ko and Tom McKibbin also in the top ten. Kimsey, incidentally, was only -3 on the par-fives and Penge -4.

What does all this tell us? Well, it speaks to the reality of the event – we’re facing a well-balanced course that has historically thrown up good winners, regardless of skillset. I would say that it downplays putting prowess and maximises effective course management, but I wouldn’t say there’s more to it than that. It is a good test, and a fair test, and although scoring can be heavy it isn’t a pure birdie fest. Something we haven’t seen is a real come from behind winner – consistency is key. I believe I’m right in saying that the 62s picked up by Ayora (round one) and Neergard-Petersen (round three) are course records – they’re certainly tournament records.

The easier conditions of last year are likely to be repeated which suggests that a score of at least teens under par will be needed to compete. I do think that in benign conditions power is a considerable advantage but good course management and iron play are still going to be critical, and players who can avoid the serious trouble which does lurk on many holes are likely to go well. The long par-five 7^th is interesting in this context – last year it gave up an eagle and 43 birdies, but also 25 bogeys and 15 doubles. No good stats for bogey avoidance on the tour so this takes a degree of digging on a player-by-player basis.

The Selections

If you’ve read the above, you might wonder how on earth we’re going to break down the field. Well, it wasn’t easy. Let’s start with a little bit of a table.

Player	Odds (B365)	Odds (Fitzdares)	Position in R2M	Number of Starts
JC Ritchie	12/1	14/1	1	18
Max Steinlechner	12/1	12/1	2	25
Oihan Guillaumondeguy	12/1	14/1	5	25
Stefano Mazzoli	14/1	16/1	18	21
David Law	16/1	20/1	3	23
Davis Bryant	18/1	20/1	31	21
Daniel Young	20/1	25/1	8	25
Lukas Nemecz	20/1	20/1	19	22
Rocco Repetto Taylor	20/1	22/1	14	16
Tobias Jonsson	20/1	20/1	13	17
Felix Mory	22/1	20/1	10	26
Renato Paratore	22/1	22/1	4	26
Filippo Celli	25/1	25/1	6	24
Per Langfors	25/1	25/1	25	24

There are a few highly ranked players who started the season well and are bang out of form (Josh Berry is still ranked ninth but hasn’t made a cut since August or a top ten since July) and a couple of top ten players in decent enough form (Felix Mory in tenth was top-ten in both Chinese events whilst Sebastian Garcia, in eighth, was fourth in Hainan and won in Hangzhou (and was fifth in Portugal.) Otherwise, we’re broadly seeing a list that reflects current positions on the tour fairly accurately. I’ve looked closely at most of these players and spent longer on my selections than for any event this season.

Initially, I saw this as an irons and plotting contest and was sweet on the likes of Adri Arnaus (annoyingly well-found by the market), Daniel Young and Daniel van Tonder. Further research led me towards the bombers such as Oihan Guillaumondeguy, Filippo Celli and Albin Bergstrom. My desire to get the classiest players possible brough JC Ritchie and Max Steinlechner back into my thoughts. I think the fast-finishing Garcia appeals hugely, as does the overpriced Mory and the DPWT player who probably shouldn’t be here, Davis Bryant. I also looked long at hard at Euan Walker, who has the most form in this particular event and is in decent form, and at the emerging German talent Anton Albers.

Bryant is also among those who need a good finish to get a card. Others outside the top twenty who I rate particularly highly are Sam Jones, Palmer Jackson and Jovan Rebula. At this point, I feel like I’ve listed half of the field. However, I’ve reluctantly pared my list down to three who I think have excellent chances and represent real value.

First on my list is the name that leapt out at me when Fitzdares first priced this event up last week, Daniel van Tonder. The South African ranks 11^th having made just 11 starts, but wining twice in South Africa will do that. He’s spent most of his season on the Sunshine Tour (and in co-sanctioned events, including fifth in the Joburg Open. The 34 year old isn’t the longest in the field but he’s tidy and effective from tee to green (his sole DPWT win came at the tight Karen Course in the Kenya Savannah Open in 2021,) will avoid mistakes and isn’t priced accordingly.

Second to make the selection is Sebastian Garcia who is overpriced in my opinion as the form player in the field. By coincidence, his best performance on the DPWT also came at Karen (he was fourth in the 2021 Magical Kenya Open) but he’s longer than van Tonder and will have the benefit of a home crowd and a substantially better record in Iberia – though I fear he doesn’t quite have van Tonder’s class with irons. Although he hasn’t played this event before in competition, he was fifth in the Mallorca Open in 2021 in a good field.

Thirdly, I’m taking Hugo Townsend, who has risen towards the top of the tree on just 16 starts (he ranks 15^th.) Winning the Rosa Challenge in Poland shows he can bomb it, which wasn’t a surprise to those of us who’ve been following the Irish/Swedish youngster since his amateur days, where he went well in events like the US Amateur (at Oakmont) and the Arnold Palmer Cup (at Rich Harvest.) He has shown steady form in his first year on the Hotel Planner Tour and if there’s a superstar in this year’s class, he and Guillaumondeguy are the first two I’d look at. He can prove that this week. Whilst I’m worried about his tendency to make big scores, I think he’s a risk worth taking at the prices.

• Daniel van Tonder, 33/1

• Sebastian Garcia, 28/1

• Hugo Townsend, 28/1

All 1pt e/w, 1/4 odds 5 places, Bet365.