Andrew's NTT Data Pro-Am (HPT) Preview

I may have to send Cristobal del Solar a Christmas card this year. Thursday saw a 100/1 return never really look in doubt as he crushed the first round leader market, albeit not on the course I thought would be involved in the tournament (the KFT switched to solely playing the tougher, fairer Pacos course.) That was the end of the good news, as we saw S.H. Noh playing well but fading over the weekend – halfway through the third round he was T3 and -10, but he finished -8 and well out of the money. Whilst I hear great things about James Nicholas the golfer and the bloke, I wasn’t close to picking him and it was a lost event for this column. The KFT returns on the 26^th February in Argentina.

Meanwhile, on the HPT we saw Marc Warren sharing the lead – with six others – after the first round of the Cape Town Open but he also suffered a poor weekend and faded back, whilst Tapio Pulkkanen was tied for the lead with two to go, but finished par-bogey to drop back to a share of fourth. So it was a second consecutive week of frustration, but the selections are getting into good positions and we go again hoping for a bit of luck at the NTT Data Pro-Am.

The Tournament

This is a very confusing event. We have a qualifier happening on Tuesday, and as I write this preview I can see some names that may have some appeal in the overall betting market who aren’t yet involved (and if you follow me on Twitter/X or are part of the Out of the Rough discord you’ll know that I tipped Justin Harding and Karabo Mokoena in that event) and they’ll be joining the biggest Sunshine Tour names and the HPT regulars in providing a strong field. That field will be split into three and will play three days of a pro-Am across three courses, before coming together for a final day (this is on a betterball basis and the amateurs are involved in the fourth round.) There’s a Ladies’ Pro-am happening alongside, as well. Basically, this the Amex format, but with all sorts of extra players and a more chaotic Sunday. Oh, and Ernie Els is in the field, too. Just because.

The good news is that all three courses are tremendous. I described this last year as “Mecca for South African golf” which might have been a bit strong, but this is a resort with three courses that are all incredibly well-regarded, all designed by Gary Player and all at the same resort near George on the Western Cape of South Africa. We’re deep in golf country with the likes of St Francis, Pezula and Simola all nearby.  Allow me to rerun my course preview from last year – there are no major changes.

Pleasingly, these are three different courses. The Montagu and Outenquia are both broadly parkland courses, quite classical in nature and with water and trees in play throughout. The Montagu is a substantially tougher test (it is a 7,342 yard par-72, some 450-yards longer than the par-72 Outenquia, which last year gave up a -9 63, and was in general by a margin the lowest scoring of the three.) The par-5 second and 17th are two of the easiest holes in the rotation, whilst the drivable (305 yard) par-4 first gives an easy start. At the Montgau, danger lurks throughout but the par-4 sixth is particularly tough.

Meanwhile, The Links course lives up to its name. The one thing it isn’t is natural – this is a course built on land that was previously an airfield, and just as flat and compressed as that implies. Gary Player oversaw a huge amount of movement but the result is a very challenging, links style course  on rolling land with pot bunkers galore. It is also the toughest test of the three, with nine of the most challenging 13 holes of the 54 that are played. Many will be glad they only see this setup once, though a birdie or better at the par-5 fifth is essential.

Last year’s renewal, in intermittently windy weather, was won by Wilco Nienaber, with the likes of Eddie Pepperell close up, continuing an ongoing theme where links experience is helpful but serious power is key. Previous winners include Nienaber again (back in 2021,) Davide Ravetto, Oliver Bekker and Alex Knappe which hammer home the importance of serious power. Christiaan Bezuidenhout was classy enough to win despite being shorter from the tee back in 2020 but even then we saw the likes of Ugo Coussaud and Dan Hillier in the top ten. 

So, with power at a premium and a very different set of tests from previous weeks, we need to be careful to think about recent form but not too much, and we are certainly looking for effectiveness in this event, as well as links form, power and the ability to score low on classical courses. Whilst Nienaber’s 262 (-27) was a record score, at least -15 has been needed for the last decade, and with wet and mostly calm conditions expected, I can see low scores dominating and power being even more important than usual. We must hope that rain is at the lower end of the forecasts and that these modern and high-end courses are effectively drained so that we see a full 72-hole event.

The Selections

This is a classy field with the Sunshine Tour list including (as well as Els) a handful of players more usually found plying their trade on the DPWT. Attracted by the quality courses and enjoyable surrounds are Casey Jarvis and Shaun Norris, both of whom are in solid form but both of whom have weak records here despite being excellent players at this level. I’m happy to take them on. I also thought long and hard about Dan Erickson who really ought to enjoy this event but has missed the cut on two attempts (2023 and last year) and may just be one of those players who struggles with the slower pace of the pro-am format. His record on the Cape in his 2023 Sunshine Tour season wasn’t as good as he was inland, and I’ll keep my powder dry for another week and hope this isn’t the first of his inevitable wins this season.

I’m starting my picks with a confident selection of an old favourite who is well-suited to this event, Robin Williams. I was disappointed by Williams’ debut season on the DPWT last year and I’d much rather he wasn’t back at this level, but this is a great test for him. His best result to date came when finishing second in the SDC Championship at nearby St Francis Links, whilst he was also fourth in the Dunhill Links. As an amateur he was second in the St. Andrews Links so, yes, he certainly enjoys links golf. He’s got the power to compete here, ranking 25^th in driving distance on the DPWT last year, and he also played this event for the first time in 2024, finishing third. That came on the back of two missed cuts in less suitable events so his 11^th in the SDC Open is highly encouraging.

Next up is Fancourt Estates based veteran, Jaco Ahlers. The big hitting Jaco was badly out of form and missed the cut in this event last year, but he won it in 2018 and since then his finishes have been fifth, 35^th, tenth, seventh and 17^th. Across the Asian, Sunshine, DPWT and HP Tours he’s been top twenty in five-of-his-last-seven starts so he arrives here in great form. Nobody knows this venue better and I was surprised to see such a generous price available. Perhaps his poor weekend (he was last of those who made the cut in Cape Town) has put people off, but I’m more than happy to take the price and rely on form and class.

Finally, Liam Nolan has to make the selection. I was disappointed to remember that he didn’t start this event last year so he’ll be new to these courses, but the Galway native knows his way around links courses, as you’d expect – he was second in the Irish amateur at County Sligo, whilst his biggest amateur victory came at the classic parkland Sunningdale course as he won the Brabazon. As a professional he was yhird and fourth from three starts in South Africa last year before coming off the boil, but he’s once again playing nice golf this winter, 39^th at the SDC and 27^th last week in Cape Town. The former Walker Cupper is a powerful man and (from limited evidence) seems to be a long driver of the golf ball and shouldn’t be underestimated in an event that he may very well enjoy.

• Robin Wiliams, 30/1

• Jaco Ahlers, 45/1

• Liam Nolan, 150/1

All 1pt e/w, 1/4 odds 5 places, Bet365. I'm sorry the early 40/1 is gone for Williams but I'd recommend him down to 25/1.