Andrew's Tulum Championship (KFT) Preview

Well, golf fans, the real events are back. No more of the entirely predictable, small-field invitational rubbish we saw at Augusta, it’s time for a full-field, unpredictable gunfight down Mexico way. Yes, I’m joking. The Masters was wonderful. The Korn Ferry Tour, though… that’s the coal face. I proved how tough the betting was last time they teed it up, failing to see any of my players make the places in Florida, but we’ll try and do better this time around. Worth praising Jeremy Gandon for a second win on the KFT, and this year it looks like it’ll contribute to a season that’s good enough to win him a PGA Tour card. My suspicion is that he’s too limited a golfer to shine at the top tier, but I’ve been wrong about that before. Good luck to him going forward, and to us, as we return to the toughest tour in the world to bet on.

The Tournament

We’re in Tulum, at PGA Riviera Maya, which is a Robert Trent Jones Jr course (like the Patriot Golf Club that hosts the playoff Compliance Solutions, as well as PGA stops at Silverado for the Procore and Port Royal for the Butterfield Bermuda… and if you want to keep going, numerous other events around the world. Firestone on the Champs Tour, the Scandinavian on the DPWT, etc.) He doesn’t enjoy the reputation of the elite golf architects but there’s no doubt that his style – heavily bunkered, strategic, undulating courses – has been influential and that players with a good record on his courses tend to see that comfort transfer between venues. 

This particular course is tougher than many of his, and indeed the vast majority of KFT stops. The winning score last year was -9, with Brandon Nimmer beating Stuart MacDonald in a playoff, and players at +3 making the cut. That happened in decent weather conditions and doesn’t seem to be an outlier – this course is tough, with the finishing stretch particularly challenging. The par-three 15^th played to 3.51 last year, the 16^th, the rare par-five playing over par at 5.04, the 17^th, another par-three at 3.01 and the 18^th, a par-four at 4.13. So it won’t be over until it is over this week. Incidentally, the weather is again scheduled to be okay but keep an eye on the possibility of rain or gusty winds especially on Friday.

Last year’s visit was the first time this event was held. However, this course also hosted the 2024 Bupa Championship on the Tour of the Americas, so it isn’t unknown to plenty of these players. That year, the winning score was just -4, albeit with a weaker field – again demonstrating how challenging it’ll be. So, what are the challenges? Well, there’s lots of water in play, the vegetation if you stray offline is severe (this is in a rainforest, after all) and there’s the Jones Jr signature bunkering and elevation changes. Our winner will need to be accurate from tee-to-green, and good scrambling and bogey avoidance will be welcomed. That last is a stat that I really value at this level, especially on tough courses. At this young stage of the season, I’m looking at both 2025 and 2026 numbers which can be found here.

The Selections

The field is headed by a surprise entry in Eugenio Chacarra, fresh from a second place finish in the Indian Open on the DPWT. With the China Open next week it seems likely he’s skipping that event (perhaps he has a place in next week’s Zurich? One wonders if fellow Oklahoma State Cowboy Rasmus Neergard-Petersen has selected him as a partner) but he’s certainly coming into this event with the classiest recent form, and one would expect the Hispanaphone to be at home here. There’s something of DLF about the elevation changes and toughness of the course, too, and I take him very seriously, but he’s been priced too conservatively for my tastes.

Instead, my first pick is Adam Hadwin, who I’ve been waiting to back – and indeed, who I did pick for the Argentine Open from which he withdrew. He’s been in ordinary form of late but he’s a PGA level player on proven ability and I think he’ll be too good for the majority of this field given such an exacting test of accuracy. This is, don’t forget, a man who was good enough to win at Innisbrook not too long ago on another accuracy-based and undulating track, that time against an elite field. Moreover, he’s got a great record on Robert Trent Jones Jr courses, with two top tens in the Procore (when it was the Safeway Open) and with last year’s 11^th in the Butterfield Bermuda a rare good performance in a down year. He was second in Panama to start this season at another tough KFT track and can certainly go one better.

I’m also backing Taylor Montgomery, who is off to a good start in regaining his PGA Tour card with three top tens from his six KFT starts this year, including at that same Panama Championship (seventh.) He’s another with form on Trent Jones Jr courses, with third at the 2023 Fortinet (now Procore) his best ever result, and with a 34^th in Bermuda last year. He ranks 35^th in bogey avoidance (Hadwin, incidentally, is 18^th) and is third in putting average and 12^th in scrambling.

Finally, I’m taking Davis Shore once more. Here’s what I said last year, “Shore is one of the form players on the KFT this year, ranking 24th on his second year on the Tour after coming off the PGA Tour of the Americas. That followed a solid college career at Alabama and it was his last start on PGAT that saw him finish second, losing in a playoff, at this very course. Since then he’s scared the leaderboard on a number of occasions, including third (Bahamas Classic) and seventh (Argentina) this year. He’s not the longest player but he scores well on the par-threes and fours and avoids bogeys – this tough challenge on a course he knows and plays well will be ideal.” Well, he was 25^th last year which was good but not great. He was then seventh at the Compliance on another Jones Jr course and again comes here in decent form, with two recent top 20 performances. Given a full year of statistics, last year he ranked 17^th for greens in regulation.

• Adam Hadwin, 60/1

• Taylor Montgomery, 33/1

• Davis Shore, 60/1

All 1pt e/w, ¼ odds 5 places, Bet365.  Hopefully better prices will come available.