Andrew's UNC Health Championship (KFT) Preview

The delay in writing this is because of childcare and the U.K. bank holiday, not because I needed another day to recover from Sunday’s abject performance. Though I did. Our selections played nicely overall, with Cooper Dossey getting a full place in T3 at 28/1, and Ross Steelman grabbing T10 at 90/1. The truth is, though, we watched Dossey throw away a golden chance at winning when entering the final day with a two-stroke lead. Even a place looked doubtful after the easier opening nine were played in +1. Steelman didn’t fire on the final day either and dropped from a share of fifth. So, once again we’re looking at a tournament where the picks were strong but the results didn’t go our way.

We do have to congratulate Doc Redman who has established himself among the class of the Korn Ferry field this season and sits second on the rankings, one win away from a battlefield promotion to the PGA Tour. Eagling a playoff hole is a hardcore way to grab a win. He, Dossey and Blades Brown top the market this week, which will be the case for as long as Redman hasn’t grabbed a win and Brown isn’t using his special status on the PGA, I suspect. Let’s get into it.

The Tournament

We’re back to the Carolinas, and this time we’re at Raleigh Country Club which is (duh) in Raleigh, North Carolina, and is a venerable host on this tour. I previewed this event last year, when I referred to this as the rare tough course on the KFT circuit. With the sad departure from the schedule of French Lick, the Pete Dye savagery no longer hosting the final event, I think this is the best course in the U.S. that they’ll see this year. 

That said, winning scores have varied from -8 in 2024 to -21 last year. That’s not a change in par, or venue, or anything like that. It’s conditions, and I suspect they’ll be easy this year. We’re seeing a lot of rain in the buildup and mostly calm conditions during the event. I suspect that a score in the teens will be needed to be competitive. How do the players get there? Well, in navigation terms, they drive up Donald Ross Drive. Which tells you how they get there in golfing terms – with good course management, excellent approach play and strong scrambling and putting. These are contoured greens with plenty of bunkers around them.

Do you need power? That’s harder to establish. There are some very strong hitters who’ve gone well here (think Frank Capan and Vincent Normann) and when you see a course advertised at 7,394 yards on their website or 7,133 on the PGA page, you think that, yeah, it’s long for a par-70 and pop will help. Whilst it will help, treat those yardages with significant mistrust – plenty of tees will be played up – last year this played on average as a 6,899 yard course and I’m working off a number in that region. I’d much rather take a risk on a shorter driver than a dodgy putter, but it that way. Last year I suggested Panama and Tulum as useful comparison weeks, and the strong performances of Hank Lebioda and Davis Chatfield (though not my selections) suggest that was a logical way to think.

The Selections

It is hard to look away from the top of the market. I believe that a class difference will shine on any course and Blades Brown is notably better than most in this field, so even though he won’t love this setup, he’s reasonably priced at 10/1 and I was sorely tempted. He's got a decision to make after gaining special membership on the PGA Tour but every time he comes to the KFT he'll deserve to be favourite. Similarly, I could see Doc Redman going in again, or even Cooper Dossey making amends for last week. This is, after all, another Donald Ross course and has some similarities with last week. Whilst I like all three, I think the market is just about right on all of them, and my search for value has taken me a little further down the list.

First is my go-to pick for the tougher courses on the KFT, Sandy Scott, who found some welcome form with 23^rd in Knoxville. He was third at the Tulum and eighth at last year’s KFT Championship, meaning that I’ll forgive him for a missed cut here last year when out of form. He’s just made for this sort of course. The key stats for me this week are greens in regulation, bogey avoidance and scrambling, and he ranks 19^th, eighth and 15^th respectively. As an aside, if you’re looking at the KFT stats page, treat shots gained with considerable caution – yes, it is great that we have it, but it only pertains to events that have had shot tracker, so that’s just three of the eleven events thus far this year. Using the old-fashioned counting stats obviously comes with other flaws, but I think it is better for a few more weeks at least.

Second is another statistical fit, at third (GiR), seventh (BA) and 21^st (scrambling.) Hayden Buckley is a player who clearly enjoys this sort of test, his career bests coming at nearby and claustrophobic Hilton Head – fifth, and the similar plotting and irons course on Oahu, the Sony – second. At this level, he was 11^th in Panama when starting brightly before losing form, but like Scott he’s shown signs of improvement and was 29^th in Knoxville last week. He's not played this course since 2021 as he was on the PGA, and he missed the cut that year. However, his statistical and similar course fit is eye catching given what is a very generous price (something confirmed now that other bookies have priced this up) and that was decisive for me.

The third member of my squad is another who I first backed for a similar challenge in Panama, where he finished a disappointing 66^th. However, he’s another great scrambler (and a better putter than either of my other players) and whilst he isn’t as routinely excellent with his irons, he’s flashed excellence. Dylan Menante is also a “local boy” – he ended a nomadic collegiate career at UNC, who through their hospitals sponsor this event, so despite growing up on the West Coast he knows Carolina courses intimately. In his first visit here last season he was 16^th, and his breakthrough win on the KFT came at the Tulum – where, annoyingly, we weren’t aboard. He can join Ian Holt and Redman as two-time winners on tour this season and all but wrap up his card with a good performance here.

• Sandy Scott, 40/1, 1pt e/w, 1/5 odds 6 places, Fitzdares

• Dylan Menante, 45/1, 1pt e/w, ¼ odds 5 places, Bet365

• Hayden Buckley, 110/1, 1pt e/w, ¼ odds 5 placs, Bet365