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Out of the Rough: PGA Championship (2026)

  • Writer: Nate (@NateOoTR)
    Nate (@NateOoTR)
  • 3 days ago
  • 8 min read

Updated: 2 hours ago

The PGA Championship makes its long awaited return to Aroniminik Golf Club, 64 years after hosting its first major championship.


Gary Player won his first of two PGA Championships and third of his nine major championship titles here in 1962.


It takes the PGA Tour to Newton Square, a suburb of Philadelphia. The Philadelphia area hosted the 2025 Truist Championship at the Philadelphia Cricket Club a season ago.


Of course, the PGA Championship is the second-of-four majors on the PGA Tour’s schedule. It is a nomadic event that rotates to a different golf course each season.


This year will be the 107th playing of the PGA Championship.


What sets the PGA Championship apart from the other majors is the inclusion of the PGA Professionals. Twenty PGA professionals who made it through qualifying will be teeing it up this week alongside the world’s best. 


The Field

As the PGA Championship is the second-of-four majors, all of the world’s best will be in attendance. 


There will also be plenty of storylines to follow this season.


The first being Scottie Scheffler’s title defense as he claimed victory at Quail Hollow a season ago for his third major and second outside of the Masters Tournament. Scheffler has placed second in each of his last three tournaments (Masters Tournament, RBC Heritage and Cadillac Championship.)


The elephant in the room is Jordan Spieth needing just the PGA Championship to become the seventh man to complete the career grand slam.


This will also be the first appearance of the LIV Golf Tour alongside the PGA Tour since PIF announced its ending to fund LIV Golf at the end of the season.


Keegan Bradley won the BMW Championship at Aronimik Golf Club in 2018. Justin Rose also won the AT&T National here in 2010.


The Course

Aroniminik Golf Club plays as a par-70 at roughly 7,400 yards.

The Championship Course, the one that will be played this week, is annually rated among the best golf courses in the United States.


The club itself dates back to 1896 but the current course was completed in 1928 and opened on Memorial Day.


Although Donald Ross had designed over 600 golf courses in his life, there are none like Aroniminik.


Ross designed this course to make even the world’s best golfers struggle.


He said, “I intended to make this my masterpiece, but not until today did I realize I built it better than I knew.”


A renovation between 2016 and 2017 headed by Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner saw this course return to its origins and match what Ross had laid out nearly 60-years prior.


Now, the greens, fairways and hazards of the Championship Course are the same today as they were in 1928.


The only difference that the course presents since Ross laid it out is the growth of what are now mature trees. The trees have narrowed the fairways and intended playing corridors.


There is less than 50-feet of elevation change on this course’s near 200 acres. As I stated prior, this is not like a normal Ross design. He included a central rise in the property to add uneven lies, fairway kicks and a harder overall challenge.


Along with the mature trees, the primary rough is set at 3.25-inches. It is a poa annua that grows thickly in the northeast. It creates both lush and challenging playing conditions. There is also tall fescue along this course.


The bunkers are what stands out about this course. There are 180 of them, more than almost all other stateside major championship hosts.


Ross had intended to include large bunkering in his original design but the end result is a string and cluster of smaller bunkers. Not only do these bunkers force awkward stances while hitting out of, but they add to the mental challenge of the course. The series of stringed bunkering messes with a golfer's eye and depth-perception. 


The greens are this course’s claim to fame. Like all Ross designs, they are turtle-shell shaped and holding the green is impossible behind the flag.


The greens are elevated above their surroundings and feature both significant contours and subtle breaks.


These Bentgrass create complicated approach shots and will require a strong around-the-green play to stay within reach.


The difficulty of this course is presented right out of the gate on Hole 1. It features a sharp drop right off-the-tee followed by a 250-yard uphill shot to the green.


Overall, this course was designed to challenge the world’s best golfers both physically and mentally. 


The Weather

As of the time of writing this, Thursday currently is calling for a 65-percent of rain throughout the day. Friday is also calling for a 45-percent of morning showers. Saturday and Sunday are both calling for just a 20-percent chance of precipitation. Temperatures will begin the week at 64-degrees on Thursday before jumping to 68-degrees on Friday, 75-degrees on Saturday and 81-degrees on Sunday. Winds are set at nine miles-per-hours across all four days


Key Stats

  • Proximity to the hole from 175-plus yards

  • Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: APP)

  • Strokes Gained: Around the Green (SG: ATG)

  • Sand Saves Percentage

  • Scrambling

  • Strokes Gained: Putting on bentgrass (SG: PUTT bentgrass)

  • Good Drive Percentage

  • Proximity to the Hole Around the Green (Proximity to the Hole (ATG))

  • Three Putt Avoidance

  • Bogey Avoidance

  • Par-Four Scoring Average


Betting Card

Tommy Fleetwood (+2600)

I had Fleetwood circled for this event for some time and was excited that he popped in my model and offered great value at 26/1. Fleetwood is currently fourth on tour in SG: ATG, 14th in scrambling, 16th in bogey avoidance, 27th in good drives percentage, 38th in SG: PUTT Bentgrass, 39th in par-four average scoring, 40th in SG: APP, 42nd in three-putt avoidance, 60th in proximity to the hole (ATG,) 72nd in sand saves percentage and 84th in proximity to the hole from 175-plus yards. Fleetwood is fresh off a fifth place finish last week at the Truist Championship. Prior to that he placed 23rd at the Cadillac Championship, 52nd at the RBC Heritage, 33rd at the Masters Tournament, tenth at the Valero Texas Open, eighth at THE PLAYERS Championship, 49th in Arnold Palmer Invitational, seventh at The Genesis Invitational and fourth at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He placed 41st last year at the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow. Prior to that he placed 26th in 2024, 18th in 2023 and fifth in 2022. He’s an eight time PGA Tour winner, but the last time he won was in 2022. Fleetwood also placed T4th last season at the Truist Championship at the Philadelphia Cricket Club, a venue with similar characteristics in the area. He also placed T8th here at the BMW Championship back in 2018


Patrick Cantlay (+6000)

Do I love this pick? Yes and no. He’s in great form coming into this week. Over his past four events he placed tenth at the Truist Championship, eighth at the RBC Heritage, 12th at the Masters Tournament and seventh at the Valspar Championship. He missed the cut at the PGA Championship a season ago at Quail Hollow. Prior to that he placed 53rd in 2024, ninth in 2023, missed the cut in 2022, placed 23rd in 2021 and 43rd in 2020. He also placed T4th last season at the Truist Championship at the Philadelphia Cricket Club, a some-what similar course in the same area. Cantlay is currently seventh on Tour in bogey avoidance, ninth in good drives percentage, 11th in par-four average scoring, 20th in scrambling, 22nd in SG: ATG, 34th in sand saves percentage, 50th in proximity to the hole (ATG,) 51st in SG: APP, 55th in three-putt avoidance, 62nd in SG: PUTT Bentgrass and 81st in proximity to the hole from 175-plus yards.


Robert MacIntyre (+6000)

This is more so a gut play opposed to a model play but it’s not like he models awfully this week. MacIntyre is currently eighth on Tour in par-four average scoring, 13th in SG: PUTT Bentgrass, 14th in scrambling, 19th in proximity to the hole (ATG,) 33rd in bogey avoidance, 61st in three-putt avoidance, 65th in good drives percentage, 70th in sand saves percentage, 71st in SG: ATG, 137th in SG: APP and 159th in proximity to the hole from 175-plus yards. We know him to be a much better iron player than what the numbers have suggested so far this season. We’re waiting for the irons to come around and I believe this could be the week for it. The recent form has not been ideal with a 60th last week at the Truist Championship, 42nd at the RBC Heritage and a missed cut at the Masters Tournament. Prior to that however he was second at the Valero Texas Open and fourth at THE PLAYERS Tournament. He placed 47th last season at Quail Hollow and eighth in 2024 at Valhalla. 


Sepp Straka (+8400)

I really looked into those who played well a season ago at the Truist Championship at the Philadelphia Cricket Club as it is our closest comparison since the 2018 playing of the BMW Championship at Aroniminik. Straka was the winner of that event and outside of a 63rd last week at the Truist Championship, was fourth at the Cadillac Championship a week prior. He went through a rough stretch between the Valero Texas Open and RBC Heritage where he missed the cut, placed 41st and 42nd respectively but prior to that was eighth at THE PLAYERS Championship, 13th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, 50th at The Genesis Invitational and second at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He has missed the cut in each of the past two PGA Championships but placed seventh in 2022. Straka is currently fourth on Tour in proximity to the hole from 175-plus yards, fifth in proximity to the hole (ATG,) 13th in SG: APP, 40th in bogey avoidance, 62nd in both scrambling and good drives percentage, 67th in SG: PUTT Bentgrass, 96th in both SG: ATG and three-putt avoidance, 102nd in sand saves percentage and 106th in par-four average scoring.


Min Woo Lee (+10000)

Lee is currently 18th on Tour in scrambling, 20th in par-four average scoring, 24th in both SG: ATG and proximity to the hole (ATG,) 26th in bogey avoidance, 29th in proximity to the hole from 175-plus yards, 33rd in sand saves percentage, 60th in good drives percentage, 68th in three-putt avoidance, 70th in SG: APP and 74th in SG: PUTT Bentgrass. In other terms, he’s above average in each of the 11 statistical categories I took into consideration this week. He placed 14th last week at the Truist Championship and 18th at the Cadillac Championship coming into this week. He missed the cut a season ago at Quail Hollow but placed 26th in 2024 and 18th in 2023 at the PGA Championship. 


Andrew Putnam (+60000)

I have to play at least one long shot this week and I’m going very long with Putnam. He placed T16th the last time the PGA Tour played an event here in 2018. He also placed 37th last week at the Truist championship, 18th at the Cadillac Championship, missed the cut at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, placed 42nd at the Masters Tournament and fifth at the Valero Texas Open coming into this week. He last played the PGA Championship in 2024 at Valhalla where he placed 53rd. Putnam is currently fifth on Tour in proximity to the hole (ATG,) ninth in both SG: ATG and SG: PUTT Bentgrass, 11th in scrambling, 17th in good drives percentage, 38th in SG: APP, 44th in bogey avoidance, 59th in sand saves percentage, 67th in par-four average scoring, 114th in three-putt avoidance and 146th in proximity to the hole from 175-plus yards.


2025 Betting Card (Quail Hollow)

  • Justin Thomas (+2200) - MC

  • Viktor Hovland (+5500) - T28th

  • Patrick Reed (+9000) - MC

  • Maverick McNealy (+13000) - T33rd

  • Jacob Bridgeman (+30000) - MC


2024 Betting Card (Valhalla)

  • Xander Schauffele (+1600) - 1st

  • Wyndham Clark (+4000) - MC

  • Justin Thomas (+5000) - T8th

  • Hideki Matsuyama (+5500) - T35th

  • Matt Fitzpatrick (+7000) - MC

  • Talor Gooch (+10000) - T60th

  • Tom Kim (+12000) - T26th

  • Maverick McNealy (+40000) - T23rd


2023 Betting Card (Oak Hill)

  • Brooks Koepka (+2100) - 1st

  • Xander Schauffele (+2400) - T18th

  • Max Homa (+3600) - T55th

  • Tom Kim (+7500) - MC

  • Wyndham Clark (+7500) - MC

  • Patrick Reed (+9000) - T18th

  • Joaquin Niemann (+9000) - MC

  • Si Woo Kim (+12000) - MC

  • Justin Rose (+12000) - T9th

 
 
 

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