Out of the Rough: TOTO Japan Classic (2025)

The LPGA Tour is set to make its final stop in Asia after a five-event stay with this week’s TOTO Japan Classic. 

From here, the Tour will return to the states for three events to put a cap on the 2025 season, beginning with the The ANNIKA driven by Gainbridge at Pelican.

This week’s event is co-sanctioned between the LPGA Tour and the LPGA of Japan Tour.

The TOTO Japan Classic was first played in 1973 and has been played every year since, at various locations.

The event will once again be staged at the Seta Golf Course which too played host a season ago. Outside of stops at the Taiheiyo Club Minori Course in 2023 and 2020, Seta Golf Course has played host since 2018. 

Seta Golf Course has hosted this event on multiple occasions dating back to 1989.

The Field

As this is the final stop in Asia and with many eyeing for the end-of-the-season run in the United States, we’ll see a weaker field than we’ve seen across the other four Asian events this week.

World No. 3 Minjee Lee headlines this week’s field as the highest ranked golfer within the Rolex Women’s World Golf Rankings.

She’ll be joined by Miyu Yamashita (No. 6,) Rio Takeda (No. 13,) Ariya Jutanugarn (No. 17,) Akie Iwai (No. 23) and Ayaka Furue (No. 24) as members of the top 25 of the Rolex World Gold Rankings teeing it up this week.

Takeda comes in as the defending champion after topping Marina Alex in a playoff a season ago.

Other former winners of this event at Seta Golf Course teeing it up this week are Gemma Dryburgh (2022,) Future (2021,) Ai Suzuki (2019) and Nasa Hataoka (2018.) 

The Course

The North Course at Seta Golf Course plays host this week for the 16th time in the event’s 52-year history.

It was designed by one of Japan’s most notable golf architects, Seiichi Inoue.

It plays as a par-72 at 6,616 yards.

Off-the-tee, golfers will be greeted by wide fairways with ample undulations with displays of the area’s history with pine, camphor and oak trees throughout.

The course itself is laid out among rolling hills, which adds to the undulating fairways. Driver will be welcome on most par-fours and par-fives this week.

Bunkers are strategically placed to be brought into play on nearly every shot

Water comes into play on four holes this week with ponds that straddle the holes. Bushes too are strategically placed around this golf course as a line of defense.

The greens this week are described as immaculate and are mostly bentgrass. Due to the advancements in maintenance technology, these greens have been changed from zoysia.

The Weather

As of the time of writing this, there is a 50-percent chance of precipitation on Thursday, a ten-percent chance on Friday, a five-percent chance on Saturday and a 35-percent chance on Sunday. Temperatures will be at the lowest on Thursday at 63-degrees. From there, they’ll increase to 68-degrees on Friday, 66-degrees on Saturday and 68-degrees on Sunday. Winds will be at the highest on Thursday at nine miles-per-hour before decreasing to eight miles-per-hour on Friday. From there, they’ll settle to six miles-per-hour across the weekend.

Key Stats

• Strokes Gained: Driving (SG: DRIVE)

• Greens in Regulation Percentage (GIR%)

• Ball Striking

• Stokes Gained: Approach (SG: APP)

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (SG: TTG)

• Par Five Average Scoring

• Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: PUTT)

• Birdie or Better Percentage

Betting Card

Somi Lee (+2000)

I was on Somi Lee last week in Malaysia as my stats based model favored her heavily. That is the case again this week as just Minjee Lee comes in higher in my model. Of the ‘top end’ of this field, I too believe Somi Lee offers the best value at 20/1. She is currently sixth on tour in ball striking, 13th in GIR%, 18th in birdie or better percentage, 20th in SG: TTG, 21st in par-five average scoring, 22nd in SG: DRIVE, 29th in SG: APP and 46th in SG: PUTT. She withdrew from the Maybank Championship last week after starting the third round but prior to that placed tenth at the BMW Ladies Championship, fourth at the Buick LPGA Shanghai and 14th at the LOTTE Championship. She played this event a season ago where she placed 64th. 

Yan Liu (+8000)

I’m going long shot heavy at this event with such a heavy top-end of the board. Liu is currently 14th on Tour in birdie or better percentage, 44th in SG: DRIVE, 52nd in SG: PUTT, 65th in GIR%, 71st in ball striking, 84th in par-five average scoring, 89th in SG: TTG and 105th in SG: APP. Liu placed fourth last week at the Maybank Championship. Prior to that she placed 31st at the BMW Ladies Championship, 26th at the Buick LPGA Shanghai, 38th at the Kroger Queen City Championship, 58th at the FM Championship, 57th at the CPKC Women’s Open and 19th at the AIG Women’s Open. She last played this event in 2023 where she finished eighth. 

Manon De Roey (+12500)

De Roey has made four consecutive cuts coming into this week. She placed 60th last week at the Maybank Championship, 24th at the BMW Ladies Championship, 36th at the Buick LPGA Shanghai and 22nd at the Kroger Queen City Championship. She also recently placed fifth at the CPKC Women’s Open. She is currently 18th on Tour in ball striking, 31st in par-five average scoring, 34th in SG: DRIVE, 45th in GIR%, 62nd in SG: TTG, 69th in birdie or better percentage, 83rd in SG: APP and 87th in SG: PUTT. 

Emily Kristine Pedersen (+17500)

Pedersen too has made four consecutive cuts coming into this week. She placed 37th last week at the Maybank Championship, 40th at the Buick LPGA Shanghai, 21st at the LOTTE Championship and 73rd at the Kroger Queen City Championship. She last played here in 2023 where she placed 27th. Pedersen is currently 15th on Tour in GIR%, 19th in ball striking, 20th in SG: DRIVE, 37th in par-five average scoring, 40th in SG: TTG, 53rd in birdie or better percentage, 57th in SG: APP and 145th in SG: PUTT.