Out of the Rough: Valspar Championship (2026)

The PGA Tour looks to put a cap on its unofficial Florida Swing with this week’s Valspar Championship.

This week marks a month-long stay in the Sunshine State as the Tour has played the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches, the Arnold Palmer Invitational and THE PLAYERS Championship within the state already.

Now, before heading to Texas for two weeks prior to the Masters, the Tour ends its run in Florida with a trip to Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead Course in Palm Harbor, Florida.

This event once took place the week prior to that now discontinued WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play. Since the discontinuation of that, the Valspar Championship has seen much improved fields as previously, being the week after THE PLAYERS Championship, most of the Tour’s big names would take the week off.

The location of the course also helps with the increased interest and a stronger field as Palm Harbor is just a hop-skip-and-a-jump from Ponte Vedra Beach, home of TPC Sawgrass and THE PLAYERS Championship

The Field

As previously mentioned, the Valspar Championship, although a regular season event, draws top tier talent each season due to its proximity to TPC Sawgrass.

Robert MacIntyre (8th) is the highest ranked golfer within the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR) playing this week.

He’ll be joined by Xander Schauffele (10th,) J.J. Spaun (11th,) Ben Griffin (13th,) Justin Thomas (14th,) Viktor Hovland (18th) and Akshay Bhatia (19th) of those within the top 20 of the OWGR playing this week.

Viktor Hovland comes in as the defending champion, having topped Justin Thomas by a stroke to claim victory a season ago.

Other former winners of the Valspar Championship playing this week include Peter Malnati (2024,) Taylor Moore (2023,) Adam Hadwin (2017,) Jordan Spieth (2015,) Kevin Streelman (2013) and Gary Woodland (2011.)

The Course

Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead Course is yet another demanding course from tee-to-green that will test the field. It requires patience and an all-around-game to compete here.

The course is often deemed a hidden gem on the Florida swing that is oftentimes overshadowed by Bay Hill and TPC Sawgrass.

It plays as a par 71 at 7,340 yards.

It’ll require a total ball-striking and short game to compete this week and the greens are a pure Bermuda.

The course features a multitude of tight doglegs that will force players to lay-up off-the-tee. The fairways too are tree lined.

Players are forced to work the ball in both directions at Copperhead. It’s a shot-maker’s course with significant elevation changes. This allows for both bombers and short plotters off-the-tee to have success alike.

In all, it’s one of the most challenging courses on Tour to gain strokes off-the-tee. This is due to the narrow fairways that too are hard to hold. Those who choose to layup with less than a driver too will find it difficult to hit these fairways.

Annually, the course yields a below average ranking in both driving accuracy and driving distance.

Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead Course too features some of the most challenging par-threes on the entire Tour.

Long iron and Bermuda putting specialists thrive here.

The course is known for its three-hole stretch between holes 16, 17 and 18 known as the ‘Snake Pit.’

The demanding 475-yard-plus par-four 16th, known as ‘Moccasin’ opens the ‘Snake pit.’ Water runs along the entire right side of the narrow tree-lined fairway.

The 220-yard par-three 17th, known as ‘Rattler,’ is next and features a heavily bunker guarded green that too is tree-lined.

The 18th, a 484-yard par-four closing hole, known as ‘Copperhead,’ plays uphill. It also is tree-lined and features treacherous bunkers that flank both the fairway and the green.

In all, the tournament can be both won and lost in the ‘Snake Pit.’

We’ve seen back-to-back winners twice in the past eight years at this event in Burns and Casey. This goes to show that course history is proven repeatable.

The Weather

As of the time of writing this, there is at most a ten-percent chance of precipitation across all four days this week. Temperatures will begin the week at 72-degrees on Thursday before jumping to 74-degrees on Friday, 76-degrees on Saturday and 77-degrees on Sunday. Winds will begin the week at 11 miles-per-hour on Thursday before peaking at 13 miles-per-hour on Friday. Winds will settle to nine miles-per-hour on Saturday and finish the week at ten miles-per-hour on Sunday. Surprisingly, some rather good weather for this event during this time of the year in Florida.

Key Stats

• Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: APP)

• Scrambling

• Par Five Average Scoring

• Strokes Gained: Putting on Bermuda (SG: PUTT Bermuda)

• Driving Accuracy

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (SG: TTG)

• Strokes Gained: Around the Green (SG: ATG)

• Proximity to the Hole from 175-plus Yards

• Par Three Average Scoring

• Bogey Avoidance

• Ball Striking

Betting Card

Nicolai Hojgaard (+3500)

Hojgaard has been great to start his 2026 campaign. Through the first ten events of the PGA Tour season, of golfers who have played at least five events, just Scottie Scheffler and Jacob Bridgeman have a better average finishing placement than Hojgaard. He placed 27th last week at THE PLAYERS Championship, 24th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, sixth at the Cognizant Classic, third at the WM Phoenix Open and 22nd at the Farmers Insurance Open. He is currently seventh on Tour in bogey avoidance, eighth in par-three average scoring, tenth in scrambling, 14th in proximity to the hole from 175-plus yards, 16th in SG: TTG, 18th in SG: APP, 52nd in par-five average scoring, 56th in SG: ATG, 58th in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 71st in ball striking and 138th in driving accuracy. He’s played this event just once prior, missing the cut a season ago.

 Sahith Theegala (+4000)

Theegala has also been rather good to start the 2026 season. He placed 32nd last week at THE PLAYERS Championship, sixth at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, 22nd at The Genesis Invitational, 60th at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, 18th at the WM Phoenix Open, seventh at the Farmers Insurance Open, eighth at The American Express and 31st at the Sony Open in Hawaii. He is currently 11th on Tour in par-five average scoring, 15th in scrambling, 20th in SG: ATG, 21st in bogey avoidance, 32nd in both SG: APP and par-three average scoring, 47th in SG: TTG, 55th in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 87th in ball striking and 122nd in driving accuracy. He placed 36th at this event a season ago and seventh in 2022. 

Nick Taylor (+4500)

These are the type of events that Nick Taylor thrives at. Maybe not this event in particular but difficult regular field events, Taylor is always live. He last played this event in 2024 where he placed 64th. He placed tenth in 2024, 70th in 2022, missed the cut in 2021 and placed 24th in 2019. Taylor is currently third on Tour in bogey avoidance, fifth in scrambling, seventh in SG: ATG, 14th in par-three average scoring, 33rd in SG: TTG, 45th in proximity to the hole from 175-plus yards, 57th in SG: APP, 58th in par-five average scoring, 61st in driving accuracy, 84th in ball striking and 109th in SG: PUTT Bermuda. He placed 42nd last week at THE PLAYERS Championship, 38th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, 28th at The Genesis Invitational, 24th at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, 28th at the WM Phoenix Open, 27th at The American Express and 13th at the Sony Open in Hawaii. 

Ryo Hisatsune (+4600)

This was my first click this week. Hisatsune placed fourth here a season ago and 33rd in 2024. He also placed 13th last week at THE PLAYERS Championship, 33rd at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, 45th at The Genesis Invitational, eighth at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, tenth at the WM Phoenix Open, second at the Farmers Insurance Open and 44th at The American Express this season. He is currently eighth on Tour in SG: TTG, ninth in ball striking, 14th in par-three average scoring, 22nd in SG: APP, 25th in driving accuracy, 36th in both par-five average scoring and SG: ATG, 44th in bogey avoidance, 59th in proximity to the hole from 175-plus yards, 82nd in scrambling and 95th in SG: PUTT Bermuda. 

Austin Smotherman (+7000)

If you guessed who currently leads the PGA Tour in SG: APP you’d probably think of the likes of Scottie Scheffler, maybe Collin Morikawa or how about Brooks Koepka? All of the above are incorrect because it is Smotherman. Smotherman is also sixth on Tour in both SG: TTG and par-three average scoring, eighth in ball striking, 20th in driving accuracy, 34th in bogey avoidance, 41st in proximity to the hole from 175-plus yards, 49th in scrambling, 109th in par-five average scoring, 115th in SG: ATG and 166th in SG: PUTT Bermuda. The putter is what is holding Smotherman back. He’s one of those guys who needs to “spike” to even to have a chance. He placed 13th last week at THE PLAYERS Championship, withdrew from the Arnold Palmer Invitational and placed second at the Cognizant Classic across his last three appearances. Earlier this season he also placed eighth at The American Express. He last played this event in 2023 where he placed 36th. He also placed 25th here in 2022. 

Patrick Rodgers (+7000)

We’ve seen multiple golfers get the “monkey off their back” so far this season. Collin Morikawa found himself back in the win column, Cameron Young won the big one and now it’s time for the uber talented Rodgers to get his maiden PGA Tour victory. He comes into this week third on Tour in par-three average scoring, 30th in SG: ATG, 49th in both SG: TTG and proximity to the hole from 175-plus yards, 62nd in SG: APP, 68th in both bogey avoidance and ball striking, 70th in scrambling, 87th in par-five average scoring and 129th in driving accuracy. None of those stats jump off-the-page at you but everything (outside of accuracy) is above Tour average. He’s also quietly had a great start to the season, making the cut in each of the eight events he’s played so far. He placed 11th last week at THE PLAYERS Championship, 24th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, 34th at The Genesis Invitational, 52nd at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, 60th at the WM Phoenix Open, 27th at the Farmers Insurance Open, 44th at The American Express and third at the Sony Open in Hawaii. He doesn’t have the best course history here, last playing in 2024 where he missed the cut. He placed 26th in 2023 and also missed the cut in both 2021 and 2019.

2025 Betting Card

• Sepp Straka (+2500) - T28th

• Alex Smalley (+4500) - MC

• J.T. Poston (+5000) - T28th

• Jacob Bridgeman (+8000) - 3rd

• Nicolai Hojgaard (+10000) - MC

• Andrew Putnam (+17000) - MC

2024 Betting Card

• Sam Burns (+1200) - MC

• Keith Mitchell (+4000) - T17th

• Aaron Rai (+6000) - MC

• Billy Hotschel (+7000) - T12th

• Doug Ghim (+8000) - T67th

• Andrew Novak (+15000) - T17th