2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship

Introduction

Rory McIlroy is back at TPC Southwind for the first time since skipping the event in 2025, and he arrives in Memphis chasing an unprecedented fourth FedExCup title while sitting outside the top 10 in the standings for the first time since 2021. He'll do it on a golf course that plays meaningfully different than a year ago, with TPC Southwind stretched to 7,288 yards even as the once-feared 239 yard par 3 14th has been chopped all the way down to 205. Add in a stacked 69 man field featuring Scottie Scheffler, Tommy Fleetwood, and defending champion Justin Rose all jockeying for position with only 50 spots up for grabs next week, and the opening leg of the FedExCup Playoffs carries real weight behind every shot. Expect a leaderboard shaped as much by who handles the added length as by who's actually playing the best golf.

Course Breakdown

TPC Southwind plays to a par of 70 and stretches to 7,288 yards for this year's championship, a jump of well over 100 yards from recent editions and the longest setup the course has presented for this event. Ron Prichard designed the layout in the late 1980s in consultation with Tour pros Hubert Green and Fuzzy Zoeller, and the routing winds through tree-lined corridors that put a premium on precision even before the recent added length raised the stakes. Off the tee, shot shaping matters more than pure distance, though several holes have been reworked to demand more power than before, most notably the fifth, a par 4 that has grown from the high 480s to 529 yards and now plays as a legitimate three-shot hole for shorter hitters. The tee shot at the 18th remains one of the most consequential on Tour, a tight corridor squeezed between water on the left and out-of-bounds on the right that has decided finishes as recently as the 2022 playoff. Ultimately, TPC Southwind rewards a player who can shape the ball into narrow fairways under pressure rather than simply overpower the course.

Approach play is where TPC Southwind extracts its pound of flesh, and the four par 3s are the clearest evidence of that. This year's set runs 196, 171, 168, and 205 yards, with that last one at the 14th still demanding total command of a long iron even after losing 34 yards off last year's number, historically one of the toughest par 3s in professional golf. The par 4s offer little relief, particularly the 482 yard 7th and the 472 yard 13th, both of which require a well struck approach into greens that run firm and fast on Bermuda putting surfaces baked by Memphis in August. Miss in the wrong spot around these greens and players are looking at delicate up and downs from tight lies rather than generous collection areas, which puts a real premium on touch and imagination rather than raw power around the green.

The two par 5s, the 579 yard 3rd and the 530 yard 16th, remain the best true birdie and eagle chances on the property and help explain why the course record of 61, shared by Jay Delsing, Bob Estes, and Tom Lewis, still stands as a reminder of how low this place can go when conditions cooperate. The great equalizer here is less about wind and more about the combination of tree-lined precision, firm Bermuda greens, and oppressive late summer heat and humidity that wears players down over four rounds, and the newly lengthened closing stretch, capped by a 505 yard 17th and that treacherous 18th, claws shots back from anyone who gets too aggressive late. Winning at TPC Southwind demands a complete ball striker who can control trajectory in tight corridors, hold firm greens with precise iron play, and get up and down from tricky spots around the putting surfaces, and this year's added length only sharpens that demand.

Field Breakdown

The headline story of the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship is Rory McIlroy's return to TPC Southwind after sitting out last year, arriving with a shot at a record fourth FedExCup title despite entering the playoffs outside the top 10 in the standings for the first time since 2021. He headlines an elite tier that starts with world number one Scottie Scheffler, who comes in off another dominant season, alongside Cameron Young, who sits third in the FedExCup standings and has been one of the sport's form players all year. Matt Fitzpatrick, Xander Schauffele, and Collin Morikawa round out a group of complete ball strikers whose games should translate cleanly to a longer, firmer TPC Southwind, while Tommy Fleetwood arrives as the reigning FedExCup champion and Justin Rose returns to defend the title he won in dramatic playoff fashion last August. That collection of names at the very top makes this one of the deepest fields of the year even before accounting for the depth further down.

The second tier is loaded with players carrying specific credentials at this course or in recent form. Viktor Hovland, J.J. Spaun, and Ludvig Aberg give the field more ball striking pedigree, with Spaun coming off a runner-up finish here last year in the playoff loss to Rose. Hideki Matsuyama, the 2024 champion, and Sepp Straka, who lost a wild three hole playoff here in 2022, both know exactly what it takes to close at TPC Southwind, while Wyndham Clark, Sam Burns, Russell Henley, and Robert MacIntyre add further contention pedigree from a strong 2026 season. Justin Thomas, Ben Griffin, Aaron Rai, and Si Woo Kim round out a group capable of climbing into the mix given the right week.

Rounding out the field is a mix of proven veterans and rising talent chasing their way up the standings. Adam Scott, Gary Woodland, Rickie Fowler, Jordan Spieth, Patrick Cantlay, Shane Lowry, and Brian Harman bring major pedigree and experience even if they're longer shots this week, while names like Jackson Koivun, Ryan Gerard, Michael Thorbjornsen, Jacob Bridgeman, and Aldrich Potgieter represent the wave of young players fighting to extend their FedExCup Playoffs run past this week. What separates the realistic winners from the rest of this field ultimately comes down to who can control the ball in tight, tree-lined corridors, hold newly firm and lengthened greens under the weight of Memphis heat, and get up and down when they miss, and a golf course that plays meaningfully longer this year should tilt that advantage toward the complete, powerful ball strikers at the very top of this field.

Tournament History

TPC Southwind has hosted this event for seven years running, first as the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational from 2019 through 2021 and then as the playoff opening FedEx St. Jude Championship since 2022, and across that stretch the course has consistently given up very low scores, with six of the seven winners finishing between 13 and 17 under par. The course's true ceiling for scoring is even more extreme, with a course record of 61 shared by three different players across different eras, a reminder of how vulnerable TPC Southwind becomes once a player gets hot with the putter. This year's dramatic increase in yardage, headlined by a significantly longer 5th and a shortened but still fearsome 14th, could push the winning number back up toward the higher end of that recent range, though with a limited, top 70 only field full of complete ball strikers, I still expect someone to find a way to go low.

Below is a look at the past 7 champions at TPC Southwind, including their winning score relative to par:

• 2025 - Justin Rose (-16)

• 2024 - Hideki Matsuyama (-17)

• 2023 - Lucas Glover (-15)

• 2022 - Will Zalatoris (-15)

• 2021 - Abraham Ancer (-16)

• 2020 - Justin Thomas (-13)

• 2019 - Brooks Koepka (-16)

Outright Betting Breakdown

Collin Morikawa +2600

My model has Morikawa ranked second in the field this week, and getting him at +2600 feels like real value for a player my numbers like that highly. The headline case is simple: Morikawa is second on the PGA Tour in strokes gained approach this season, and TPC Southwind is a course that has historically rewarded precise iron players above almost anything else.

The form line is a little messy on the surface because of a back injury that has popped up repeatedly since March, but the results underneath it are excellent. He won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in February at 22 under, then dealt with the injury through the spring before returning to finish T7 at the Masters and T4 at the RBC Heritage. Since then he's added a T17 at the U.S. Open, a bogey free final round 61 for solo third at the Travelers, and a T13 at The Open Championship at Royal Birkdale. He also has a strong track record specifically at this venue, finishing inside the top 26 in five straight trips to TPC Southwind through 2024, including a T10 in 2023, before a T22 here last year.

Morikawa's approach play is one of the best on Tour this season, and his driving accuracy also ranks well above the field average, both traits that matter enormously on a course that punishes anything but precise iron play into small, well defended greens. He's not a long hitter, which matters more now that TPC Southwind plays over 100 yards longer than recent years, but his accuracy off the tee should offset a lot of that. The clear weakness is the putter, which has ranked well below tour average most of this season and has been a season long theme going back to last year as well.

The case for Morikawa comes down to elite ball striking peaking at exactly the right time, a proven history of playing well at this specific course, and a price that undersells how good his tee to green game has been. The putter and the lingering questions about his back are real risks, but on a course this precision demanding I'm comfortable being on him this week.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Gained Rankings:

• Total: 4th

• Off-the-Tee: 25th

• Approach: 2nd

• Around the Green: 79th

• Putting: 85th

Hideki Matsuyama +3300

My model ranks Matsuyama 20th this week, and I think +3300 is a generous number given how well he knows this specific golf course. He's a FedEx St. Jude Championship winner and has a long history of playing his best golf in Memphis, and he arrives red hot heading into the playoffs.

Matsuyama closed the regular season with a strong string of results, finishing T14 at The Open Championship, T3 at the 3M Open, T5 at the Rocket Classic, and T11 at the Wyndham Championship at 10 under. That kind of form entering a course he's already conquered is exactly the profile I want. His history at TPC Southwind is outstanding beyond the 2024 win, with prior finishes of T16, T2, and T20 in his various trips there, giving him one of the deepest resumes of anyone in this field at this specific venue.

Matsuyama's approach play has been solid but not spectacular this season, generally sitting in the 20s to 30s in tour rankings, and he's shown flashes of elite around the green play at multiple points this year. The clear weakness is off the tee, where he's ranked near the bottom of the tour most of the season. His putting has been volatile, but it's worth noting he specifically led the field in strokes gained putting during his 2024 win here, suggesting his flat stick can turn on at this exact venue even when it's inconsistent elsewhere.

The case for Matsuyama is built on course history that's about as good as it gets in this field, combined with a player who is clearly playing his best golf of the season at the right time. The driving remains a real concern, especially with TPC Southwind playing longer than ever this year, but I'm willing to look past that given how much this specific course has favored him in the past.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Gained Rankings:

• Total: 22nd

• Off-the-Tee: 113th

• Approach: 28th

• Around the Green: 6th

• Putting: 64th

Justin Thomas +5000

My model has Thomas ranked 35th this week, but +5000 looks like real value to me given just how well he's historically played at TPC Southwind specifically. He won this event in 2020 and has never finished worse than T30 in six career starts here, which is about as strong a course history as anyone not currently in the betting favorites tier.

Thomas's season has been solid without a win, highlighted by a T8 at THE PLAYERS Championship and a T4 at the PGA Championship, along with a stretch of six consecutive top 20 finishes before he struggled overseas at the Scottish Open and The Open Championship, where he's historically had a tougher time. He showed signs of good form heading into the playoffs, making an eagle on the par 5 5th at Sedgefield during the Wyndham Championship and pushing into the top 10 through the middle rounds. That combination of an obvious course fit and ball striking that's been trending in the right direction gives me real confidence this week.

Thomas has gained strokes tee to green in essentially every category at this course across his last four visits, which lines up with a skill set built on strong iron play and elite hands around the green when he misses. His off the tee numbers have been solid this season as well. The one consistent soft spot, both this season and specifically at TPC Southwind, is his putting, which has lagged even during his 2020 win here.

The case for Thomas comes down to a course history that's genuinely elite relative to his model rank, paired with a ball striking game that's been rounding into form after a mixed summer overseas. The putter remains the swing factor that could hold him back from really contending, but at 35th in my model with this kind of course fit, I think the price more than makes up for it.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Gained Rankings:

• Total: 27th

• Off-the-Tee: 50th

• Approach: 104th

• Around the Green: 1st

• Putting: 74th

Tom Kim +5500

My model has Kim ranked fifth in this field, which makes +5500 look like significant value on paper. The headline reason is simple: he's playing the best golf of his season right now, capped by a win at the Genesis Scottish Open that snapped a 1,001 day victory drought.

Kim's summer has been excellent. He finished solo third at the U.S. Open, won the Scottish Open with a bogey free final round 64, and closed the regular season with a T20 at the 3M Open and a T5 at the Wyndham Championship, where he briefly held the clubhouse lead after a third round 63. It's worth noting his history at TPC Southwind is more mixed than the rest of this form line suggests. He finished T24 here in 2023 after sitting second through the opening round, and in 2024 he collapsed late with a bogey, double-bogey, double-bogey finish that dropped him to T50 and cost him a spot in the BMW Championship field.

Kim's ball striking has been the engine behind his recent surge, with strong marks in strokes gained approach and driving accuracy in his best recent weeks, both traits that translate well to a course demanding precision over power. The weaker parts of his game this season have been around the green and on the greens themselves, where he's ranked outside the top 90 in strokes gained putting for much of the year, a real concern on a course with firm, tricky Bermuda putting surfaces.

The case for Kim is built almost entirely on how well he's swinging the club right now, with a model rank that reflects real recent quality ball striking. The putting and his rocky prior history at this specific course are legitimate risks worth flagging, but given how hot he's been since the Scottish Open, I'm willing to take a shot on him at this price.

2026 PGA Tour Strokes Gained Rankings:

• Total: 21st

• Off-the-Tee: 96th

• Approach: 6th

• Around the Green: 33rd

• Putting: 90th

My outright card is built around a minimum 10x return on my unit. In practice, that means I spread one total unit across all my selections for the week, structured so that any single winner returns at least 10 units. This means I only need to hit one outright in ten tournaments to break even. It keeps me honest about the odds I'm willing to accept and prevents me from chasing value at prices that don't justify the risk.

That said, this is my system, and it works for my bankroll and my risk tolerance. Yours may look completely different, and it should. Figure out what return threshold makes sense for you, how many units you're comfortable putting at risk in a given week, and build from there. The best betting system is the one you can stick to consistently, not the one that sounds best on paper.

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