Andrew's Open De Portugal (HPT) Preview
I’ve called this year’s HPT results confounding before now. Before, that is, we saw Freddie Kjetterup win on the back of form figures reading MC-2-MC-MC-MC-MC-MC-MC. Safe to say that I didn’t see his finish at the English Trophy coming. That said, he’s obviously good enough to win at this level – and still only 26, it’d be great if he could show something more like this week’s results for the end of the year, and get back to the DPWT after a very underwhelming LIV performance.
Of my picks last week, Andrew Wilson came very close, but his fourth place belies a slow start and a sense that he was never quite in a high enough gear. For him, it is a valuable result and a move closer to a card, but for us it is disappointing. Hard to be too critical, and the same is also true of Jack Bigham who belied enormous odds to finish in the top 20. He’ll be one to watch if he gets any more starts this year. However, I do have to issue a mea culpa for my third pick, who not only missed the cut but was picked for erroneous reasons. George Bloor is not a member at the Caversham, he’s a member at the Cavendish. It is 150 miles away and a totally different course. I’ll try and do better – apologies, and thanks to the gentleman who gently pointed out my error. Let’s see how we go in Portugal.
The Tournament
For those of us writing about this event, it is frustrating to leave one of the best-established courses on the rotation. This has been held in September at Royal Obidos for the last six years and it is a rare point of consistency that gives the punter a real chance, and lets the writer rest on his laurels from last year. That’s the bad news. Everything else is good news.
This year, the Open de Portugal moves to PGA Aroeira, the highest rated golf course in Portugal and one seemingly noted for being in exceptional condition and well set up for competition. A high-profile course, close to the capital and with PGA links, this is a real upgrade for one of the better national opens on the HPT circuit and I’m hopeful we can enjoy a really good tournament. There are now just two events left before the fields are shortened for the Chinese events and then the Grand Final, so points are even more prized than usual.
Awaiting the players, as well as a nice hotel and excellent food options, apparently, is good weather – after a poor practice day on Wednesday – and potentially a draw bias for the early/late starters, though I doubt it is anything to worry about. The course, meanwhile, manages to be incredibly close to the Atlantic Ocean and yet not thought of as a coastal course by anyone who has reviewed it. That’s because the fairways are tightly enclosed by mature trees. With Wentworth happening in the same week there are some obvious comparisons which have been made in the press for some years. This is shorter (6,769 yards for a par-71 featuring two par fives and a drivable par-four on the back nine) and probably easier, but it sets up for a similar game type. Water will be in play in addition to the tight fairways and inevitable bunkering, so I think we’re looking for super accurate, game-manager type golfers. I suspect that scoring will be reasonably low but kept in check by the difficulty in overpowering such a tight course.
By means of comparison, this hosted the European Tour level Portuguese Open in 1996 and 1997, won by Wayne Riley and Michael Jonzon respectively, but the work done on the course to join the PGA stable was extensive, and even more than thirty years of technology renders those leaderboards pretty useless for our purposes. The MENA Tour came to Aroeira and I’m pretty sure played this course, though it is hard to tell – there are two championship-standard courses. The winner was Ludovico Addabbo in -18 for 54 holes, but that was on a softened course in November and may be misleadingly straightforward. A relatively low-level amateur event (the Aroeira Open) was won by Dylan Shaw-Radford this March, -10 for 54 holes, and again suggesting that birdies will be necessary. More than that, it is hard to say at this point. It’ll be an exciting week but I can't speak with total confidence about the sort of winner we can expect.
The Selections
With that in mind, it is very helpful to start with the betting market, and this week’s reflects the strong field, with the likes of Andreas Halvorsen and MJ Daffue making first appearances for a while, joining Caleb Surratt who continues to pursue improved form on this tour. Local boy Pedro Figuieriedo was second in that MENA Tour contest and is justifiably fancied for this event. However, I think that all these players are too short in the market and I see value elsewhere.
First of my picks is someone I was considering before the markets emerged, and I was hoping to see a price of 33/1. At the currently available 50/1 this was an almost embarrassingly easy selection. John Gough won two weeks ago at the Rosa Challenge for his second win of the year, and ranks fifth on the Road to Majorca. He can, of course, grab a battlefield promotion by winning here and trade in trips to the UAE and China for France, the Dunhill Links, Spain and India. The diminutive Walker Cupper had a stellar amateur career so it is no surprise that his record in Iberia is good, with a win in the Spanish Amateur and second in the Copa Sotogrande, but it is clear that this sort of course suits him ideally. He isn’t the longest off the tee but is highly effective from tee to green, finishing 11th in Estonia at a useful comparison as well as that Rosa win. A missed cut after a victory is hardly a sign of lost form, and I think it is that result that pushed his price out to a must-bet level.
Another who I think will relish this challenge and belie his odds is old favourite Tapio Pulkkanen, a man who I have honoured by finally learning to spell his name correctly (two "k"s, people. No double "n"s.) Tenth in the Rosa has kept him in the competition to regain his DPWT card and his 14th in the Kenya Open (DPWT) this season is further proof, were it needed, that this is his sort of event. He’s had a long career so it is easy to pick out events where he’s gone well on similar tracks over the years, but it isn’t cherry-picking to note that his last compeititon in Portugal was this event at Royal Obidos in 2024 (he was third,) preceded by the 2022 Portuguese Masters (third) and in 2021 (17th.) He was also sixth in the 2017 Portugal Open in his third ever DPWT start. You take the point; he loves tests of accuracy and tee-to-green prowess, loves Portuguese golf and is fighting to regain his DPWT card. That’ll do me.
Finally, when I see courses like this I can’t help but be drawn to another old favourite, and I think the price is right to take a gamble on a return to form for Robin Sciot-Siegrist. There’s no hiding from the fact it has been a down year for a man who has spent most of his career on the fringes of a DPWT card but now faces losing his HPT status without a strong end to the year. Seven made cuts from his last eight starts definitely represents an improvement but he’ll need a further step forward to contend. The short-hitting Frenchman is built for this sort of course, however, and ought to enjoy it far more than Royal Obidos. His best result on the HPT was a second-place finish at the Grand Final in Alcanada, a pretty similar course. Absent detailed statistics it is hard to build a detailed case but his game and his need to get some R2M points lead me to believe that this price is simply wrong.
John Gough, 50/1
Tapio Pulkkanen, 35/1
Robin Sciot-Siegrist, 140/1
All 1pt e/w, ¼ odds 5 places, Bet365
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