Andrew's NCH Championship (KFT) Preview
The first week of the KFT playoffs produced a surprisingly compelling and high-quality competition, which would give a less arrogant writer pause to consider whether this was, in fact, a better golf course than my prediction suggested. I suspect it was mere coincidence. However, it was nice to see Alvaro Ortiz, backed a couple of times last month at longer prices, grab a win to officially confirm his card for next year. There are five cards now confirmed, with Ross Steelman, Doc Redman, Ian Holt and Alastair Docherty also joining the big show next year. More on the runner-up to follow, but I certainly don’t want to talk about my picks, none of whom featured in any meaningful way. Let’s get into this week’s tournament.
The Tournament
This is one of the most established events on the KFT, in place since 2007 and part of the playoffs (in their various iterations) since 2013. Before I get into the golf nonsense, I should say that this is, evidently, held in support of the Nationwide Children’s Hospital, and has raised more that $33m to support paediatric cancer treatment. If we do have a winner, please think about donating something to this worthy cause or a local/national equivalent if you’re abroad, as I am.
The nonsense, meanwhile, is quite good this week. I was very mean about the Nashville course last week, but it is hard to complain this time around. We’re at THE Ohio State University on the Scarlet Course, built around an initial design by Alister MacKenzie who died before work really began. I looked at this event last year and called it one of the longest and toughest courses that they’ll face all year. Well, at 7,445 yards for a no-altitude par 71, the length is indisputable. The toughest? Potentially.
My case last year was that this is predictive of future success. I noted that Scottie Scheffler won here, and so did Justin Thomas and Harris English. I noted that this was an exacting tee-to-green test and that the cream rises to the top here. I even pulled the top twenty on GiR and used that as a major part of putting together my picks. That’s a case that makes sense. I’m sure you’ll see lots of it elsewhere. Pick your favourite flushers and go to town.
However, it is worth noting that the last four winners have been John VanDerLaan, Frankie Capan, Norman Xiong, and David Lingmerth, none of whom have set the world alight and none of whom are known for crisp and reliable iron play. Is it possible that this course, with the setup as the KFT seem to like it currently and modern technology, isn’t providing quite the challenge it once did? I’m not sure. We should certainly be excited to see a classical test of golf and a more interesting course than we usually do. But let’s bear in mind that this might not be as predictive as we think, it might not be won by a market leader, and it might not be a total grind – last year, -17 won it and par made the cut. I’m excited, but the closer I look at recent leaderboards, the more tempered that excitement becomes.
So what am I looking for? Well, it is still true that we should certainly be looking for approach play above all else. Specifically, given the undulations on the course and the strategic bunkering, players with good parkland experience and players who can manage their games will have an advantage. Total driving matters here too – this is long and you’ll want approaches to be from the short grass wherever possible. Of course short game will matter – players will miss greens or will leave themselves long two-putts – but I’m going to be focused mostly on the first two shots. Oh, and I’m delighted to say that weather isn’t a worry, apart from a potentially damp start on Sunday.
For all my worries that this course is a weaker test than it used to be, I still come back to the Scottie Scheffler story. The one where he and his team knew he had the game to succeed on the PGA Tour but didn’t know if he had the game to get him to the PGA Tour. It remains a fascinating insight into the game at the highest levels, and the biggest condemnation of the KFT that I think is totally valid. Scottie won here – let’s hope that we see the same sort of test this week and get the same sort of excellence at the top.
The Selections
I did look long and hard at all the players at the top of the market. It is hard to think of a test that’ll suit Tommy Morrison more and he is perhaps the most exciting player on the Tour now that Blades Brown is PGA focused. Ross Steelman is playing the best golf and was 12th here last year. I was close, once again, to picking Caleb vanArrogan whilst Carson Young could prove (as Ben Kohles once did) that overwhelming length isn’t a prerequisite to going well here if you are good enough on approach. There was a draft of this in which I stopped at two picks, win only, and Tommy Morrison was the second. If I could have got 20s on him, that might well have been the route I took. He juuuust missed out for reasons of value.
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Which left my first pick as Sandy Scott. This will amuse everyone who has read me this season, right back to when I predicted he’d end the year higher-ranked than Adam Scott. It’ll particularly tickle those of you I was chatting to last week, who know that I drafted my “why I’m picking Sandy Scott in the NCH” paragraph before he damn nearly won the Simmons Bank. My case is, and has always been, very simple: if there’s a Scottie Scheffler-esque “plays way better on tough courses” golfer this year, it is Scott. There’s a reason his best result last year was at the much-missed French Lick finale. He’s got a fantastic all-round game but isn’t about making streaks of birdies and eagles, he’s about great consistent golf. The statistics are there, too – eighth in strokes gained putting, 16th in scrambling, 21st in GiR – but it isn’t a statistical case. Of course he’s got good statistics, of course he’s in great form (fourth and second on his last two starts) but this is a pure gut feeling. I’ve been waiting to bet on Sandy here for a long time and the price isn’t short enough to put me off.
Joining Sandy on my team is Christiaan Maas, another who I think will improve for a tougher challenge. That’s in part because of his experience to date – as an amateur, he did incredibly well faced with tough pro tests (fourth in the SA Open at Durban, tenth in the Dubai Desert Challenge) in addition to his amateur heroics – and in part because of his pedigree and the respect in which golfers in Texas and South Africa talk about him. It is backed up by the eye test but also by statistics. In a shortened season in which he’s played some admittedly poor golf, he still ranks tenth for GiR – backed up by fifth in driving distance – and 15th in scrambling. I worry about his putting, but at this sort of price I’m happy to take a risk that he sinks a couple.
Finally, I’m taking a shorter hitter but a great approach player who I think has the temperament to enjoy this tougher challenge. John Pak is one of those golfers who manages to be just 27 and feel like a veteran. He’s only played here once before and was 13th, and he comes he returning to form (38th, then 11th, after a string of missed cuts.) In a season with few useful comparisons, the UNC event at Raleigh is a similarly challenging course, though shorter, and he was seventh. He’s sixth in driving accuracy and 29th in putting as well as ninth in SG: approach, which is a pretty useful way to plot this course. If it all goes wrong, his scrambling is above average, too. He is priced based on some weak results and a fear of his shorter hitting but he has the game to thrive when others are losing their heads.
Sandy Scott, 25/1, 2pts win only
Christiaan Maas, 66/1, 1pt e/w, 1/5 odds 6 places
John Pak, 60/1, 1pt e/w, 1/5 odds 6 places
All Fitzdares
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