Andrew's NCH Championship (KFT) Preview

Welcome to the ante-penultimate KFT preview of the season. As I start to write this I can say with confidence that, however long I spend bashing this out, I spent longer working out my shortest-priced tip. This wasn’t quite a coin flip, but it was the closest I’ve come in the time I’ve been writing for this site.

We’ll come back to that but we should first acknowledge the victory of Zach Bachou in last week’s Simmons Bank Open, which vaults him into the top 20 and all but guarantees a PGA card for next year. I was nowhere near finding Bachou but did flirt with selecting Austin Hitt, a strong second place and a model of consistency all season. The best thing about my selections is that Trace Crowe missed the start and therefore got us some money back. As I mentioned last week, the fields are gradually shrinking on the KFT now, and just the top 144 on the points list are eligible for this event. Very few are not taking up the invitation, with S.H. Kim (sixth) the highest-ranked player not to take up his invitation. He’s either still in Asia or making his way back following a mediocre performance in the Donghae Open. His current poor form is frustrating as I thought he had a great chance in the final event at French Lick - let’s see if he plays next time at Compliance Solutions to get ready. For those who are here, let’s get into it.

The Tournament

The longstanding relationship between Nationwide Children’s Hospitals, the KFT, and THE Ohio State’s Scarlet Course continues for another year. I spend lots of time in these columns saying horrible things about the courses that the KFT slog around, and it is hard to do that this week. The longer, tougher and older of the two OSU courses (yes, the other one is the Gray Course) was designed by Alister MacKenzie (although he died before it was built) and was updated by Jack Nicklaus in 1977. It is one of the longest (7,455 yard par 71) and toughest (winning scores between -5 and -17) courses that the field will face all year. It is also remarkably predictive of future success. This event has been running since 2007, so this will be the 19th event, and winners include Harris English, Peter Uihlein, Grayson Murray, Justin Thomas, Ben Kohles and some bloke called Scottie Scheffler. So it is well worth taking the players who reach the top of the leaderboard very seriously indeed. As you can see from the list of winners (and the length) this is an exacting tee-to-green test and my formula, which has been fairly effective in this event, is to look for players who are elite in terms of tee-to-green (I use GiR as a proxy, as good SG T2G figures aren’t available for the KFT,) above-average in length and competent in putting. The most useful course comparison is with Panama, which is a similar challenge.

This feels like a good moment for a list. Below are the twenty guys on tour who rank highest for greens in regulation, with their spot on the driving distance charts in parentheses.

Top 20 in GiR with driving distance

1. Ian Holt (50)

2. Austin Smotherman (64) *

3. Austin Hitt (48)

4. Hank Lebioda (104) *

5. Chandler Blanchet (99) *

6. Alvaro Ortiz (76)

7. Alastair Docherty (28)

8. Caleb VanArrogan (109)

9. Bryce Lewis (44)

10. Emilio Gonzalez (92) *

11. Sandy Scott (58

12. )Matt NeSmith (83)

13. Johnny Keefer (10) *

14. Tano Goya (134) !

15. Carter Jenkins (18)

16. Kensei Hirata (118)

17. Thomas Walsh (137) !

18. Neal Shipley (32) *

19. Dan McCarthy (135)

20. Dylan Menante (70)

    * = Top ten on points list

    ! = Not in field for this event

The first thing to say is that, as a crude method of identifying the best players on the tour, this is pretty good, with six of the top ten represented. The only player in the top ten for both statistical categories is Johnny Keefer, who also happens to top the money list. Hot on his heels are Carter Jenkins, and his 96th ranking reflects his struggles on and around the green, and Neal Shipley, another who is certain to pick up a card and has won this year. In reflecting on this list I considered Jenkins - who was second in this event last year - as well as Docherty, who was 11th last year but is dreadfully out of form, alas. Lebioda was close to making my team but his weak record here is troubling in an event where players coming back tend to see similar results - he’s finished 51st, MC, 34th and 60th.

The Selections

The toughest pick of the season, then, was between Johnny Keefer and Neal Shipley. Keefer’s tee-to-green game has been marginally superior this year, and he’s just marginally enjoyed better results (incredibly marginal - both have two wins and five other top tens, but the points list isn’t lying.) Keefer was better in Panama (scond vs. ninth) which I do think is enormously significant. Shipley, has a win and four top tens in his last six starts whilst Keefer has a win and three top tens in his last five starts. Last time out, Shipley missed the cut whilst Keefer finished fourth but was slightly disappointing on Sunday. Shipley went to OSU for a year and will know the course. Shipley’s odds are slightly better (20/1 vs 14/1.) Look, if you call it the other way I wouldn’t blame you in the slightest, but by the finest of margins, I went for Johnny Keefer. I even thought about picking both to win and ending the picks like that, but I am content with my selection. Just.

It was much easier to add Austin Smotherman at attractive odds. He’s second on the points list (yes, between Keefer and Shipley) and won twice in June during a spectacular run of form. The biggest downside is his recent form (he’s missed three straight cuts) but after going 71-67 to miss the cut on the number last week as he returned from a break, I won’t worry too much. His starts before those MCs were 16-win-11-win-4-6. I’d love him to be in better form, or to have better form here, but his peak performances, his PGA-level performance, and his sixth in Panama is enough for me at the odds.

Finally, I’m taking Dylan Menante from the list above. As well as being a GiR machine with a bit of pop, he’s solid on and around the greens and, as such, a statistical fit on just about any course but especially here. He’s always been great on tough courses (he was third in the US Am in 2022 at Ridgewood, for instance - unfortunately he didn’t play Panama and hasn’t played this course before.) His form is trending in the right direction and although this would be a shocking win, he’s one of very few players who have the game to produce a shock on this highly predictable course.

• Johnny Keefer, 14/1, 2pts win only, Bet365

• Austin Smotherman, 33/1, 1pt e/w, 1/4 odds 5 places, Bet365

• Dylan Menante, 90/1, 1pt e/w, 1/4 odds 5 places, Bet365