2026 The American Express

Introduction

We head to California for our second stop on the PGA Tour at The American Express. While this isn’t one of my favorite events on the schedule, I was fortunate enough to cash a 60/1 ticket on Sepp Straka here last year, so I’m hoping to find another winner this week.

Course Breakdown, Tournament History & Early Weather Forecast

This week’s event will be played across three courses: the Pete Dye Stadium Course at PGA West, the Jack Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA West, and La Quinta Country Club. The cut will be made after 54 holes rather than the standard 36. Each golfer will play one round at each course before the cut, after which all players who advance will compete in the final round on Sunday at the Pete Dye Stadium Course at PGA West.

Let’s start with the most important of the three courses: the Pete Dye Stadium Course at PGA West. The Stadium Course is a par 72 measuring approximately 7,210 yards and was designed by Pete Dye in 1986. The layout features four par 3s, four par 5s, and ten par 4s. This week, the course will play with overseeded Bermuda rough, overseeded ryegrass fairways, and overseeded poa greens. The Stadium Course is widely regarded as the most difficult of the three venues, with narrow fairways, challenging greens, and strategically placed hazards throughout. Holes 16, 17, and 18 form one of the toughest closing stretches on the rotation, setting the stage for an exciting finish.

Moving along to the Jack Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA West, this par 72 layout measures 7,147 yards and was designed by Jack Nicklaus in 1987. Similar to the Stadium Course, it features four par 3s, four par 5s, and ten par 4s. The grass setup is the same as well, with overseeded Bermuda rough, overseeded ryegrass fairways, and overseeded poa greens. While the fairways are more forgiving off the tee, the greens are relatively demanding. With more than 90 bunkers and water in play on several holes, the Tournament Course still requires precision, but it is one of the best scoring opportunities of the week and a round where players will look to go low.

Finally, we have La Quinta Country Club, a par 72 layout measuring approximately 7,060 yards and originally designed by Lawrence Hughes in 1959. Like the Stadium and Tournament courses, it features four par 3s, four par 5s, and ten par 4s. The course plays with overseeded ryegrass rough and fairways, along with greens that feature a mix of poa and ryegrass overseed. Fairways are relatively narrow, with strategically placed bunkers and water in play on several holes. Similar to the Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club presents one of the better scoring opportunities of the week.

The three‑course rotation has largely been in place over the past 10 years, with the winners and their scores to par listed below:

• 2025 - Sepp Straka (-25)

• 2024 - Nick Dunlap (-29)

• 2023 - Jon Rahm (-27)

• 2022 - Hudson Swafford (-23)

• 2021 - Si Woo Kim (-23)

• 2020 - Andrew Landry (-26)

• 2019 - Adam Long (-26)

• 2018 - Jon Rahm (-22)

• 2017 - Hudson Swafford (-20)

• 2016 - Jason Dufner (-25)

Over the last decade, the average winning score has been just under 25 under par, clearly highlighting this event as a birdie‑fest. I would expect much of the same this week.

The early forecast looks ideal for golf: sunny skies, minimal chance of rain, and very light winds. If this holds, the winning score could come in even lower than the 10‑year average. Players will need to make a lot of birdies this week to have a chance at victory!

Field Breakdown

The field this week is highlighted by nine of the top 20 in the OWGR, including #1 Scottie Scheffler, #5 Russell Henley, #7 Robert MacIntyre, #8 Ben Griffin, #10 Justin Rose, #11 Harris English, #12 Sepp Straka, #13 Alex Noren, and #18 Ludvig Åberg. Other notable players in the field include Matt Fitzpatrick, Sam Burns, and Patrick Cantlay.

This is clearly a step up in class from last week’s Sony Open in Hawaii, largely due to Scottie Scheffler making his season debut. While his presence often makes things more challenging for the rest of the field, it also boosts outright betting value and reduces ownership of other players, creating opportunities to capitalize.

Outright Betting Breakdown

Matt Fitzpatrick +3300

Fitzpatrick ranks 15th in my model this week, and while this isn’t typically an event where I’d target him, his current form is simply too strong to ignore.

Across the PGA Tour and DP World Tour, Fitzpatrick has posted nine top-10 finishes in his last 15 starts, highlighted by a win in his most recent appearance at the DP World Tour Championship. This will be his PGA Tour season debut, so there has been some time between starts, but the number is still too big to pass up. He has been excellent off the tee, and his elite ball striking and short game make him one of the top talents in this field.

While he has never teed it up at The American Express, getting a player of Fitzpatrick’s caliber and current form at 33/1 is something I can’t ignore.

2025 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 34th

• Off-the-Tee: 82nd

• Approach: 76th

• Around the Green: 63rd

• Putting: 30th

Si Woo Kim +5000

Si Woo ranks 11th in my model this week, and just as importantly, he passed the eye test for me last week.

After opening the Sony Open in Hawaii at +4 through his first eight holes, he rebounded impressively to finish T11. Including last week, Si Woo has now recorded eight consecutive top-25 finishes, and it feels like a win is imminent. He is extremely accurate off the tee and elite on approach and around the greens. He simply needs the putter to cooperate to have a legitimate chance to contend.

Si Woo has played this event eight times, making the cut in seven of those appearances, with four top-25 finishes and a win back in 2021. Given his current form and strong tournament history, I think Si Woo Kim lifts his fourth career PGA Tour trophy this weekend.

2025 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 25th

• Off-the-Tee: 30th

• Approach: 29th

• Around the Green: 11th

• Putting: 161st

Alex Noren +5000

Although Noren ranks 57th in my model this week, I can’t help but trust my gut on this one.

To close out the 2025 season, Noren was one of the hottest golfers across both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour. Over his final 10 starts, he recorded two wins and five additional top-20 finishes, showcasing accuracy off the tee, elite approach play, and a world-class short game. That profile sounds similar to last year’s winner, Sepp Straka.

Noren has teed it up in this event four times, making the cut in three of those starts and finishing inside the top 25 twice. While this would be his first career PGA Tour victory, he is already a 12-time DP World Tour winner, and I believe this is the week he finally breaks through on the PGA Tour.

Rickie Fowler +6600

One of my all-time favorite golfers, I was surprised to see Fowler rank fourth in my model this week, and that was all I needed to add him to my betting card.

I hadn’t fully appreciated how strong Fowler’s form was to close out the 2025 season. He made the cut in each of his final six starts, highlighted by two top-20 and two top-10 finishes. During that stretch, he consistently gained off the tee in both distance and accuracy, while also gaining on approach and in the short game. If he can carry that momentum into this week, this event sets up very well for him.

Fowler has played this event eight times in his career, making the cut in five appearances with three top-25 finishes. I see this as a strong opportunity for Fowler to lift his seventh PGA Tour trophy.

2025 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 75th

• Off-the-Tee: 43rd

• Approach: 95th

• Around the Green: 116th

• Putting: 77th

Pierceson Coody +9000

Coody ranks 18th in my model this week and is a player I had circled early in the PGA Tour season as someone I wanted to get on my betting card.

Last year, Coody split his time between the PGA Tour and the Korn Ferry Tour, where he played some very solid golf. More recently, during the PGA Tour swing season, he had gone five-for-five in made cuts with three top-25 finishes. At a venue where birdies are essential, Coody ranks 13th in the field in birdie-or-better percentage. He mashes the ball off the tee and, while slightly below Tour average in driving accuracy, makes up for it with ample distance. He is roughly Tour average on approach and with the putter, but he has shown the ability to spike in both areas when needed.

Coming off a T13 finish at last week’s Sony Open in Hawaii, the three-time Korn Ferry Tour winner will be looking to break through for his first PGA Tour victory this week, and I’m all for it.

2025 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 28th

• Off-the-Tee: 1st

• Approach: 94th

• Around the Green: 92nd

• Putting: 130th

Max Homa +12500

Homa, another one of my favorite golfers, ranks 20th in my model this week and, at his current odds, is one of my favorite plays on the board.

There’s no hiding the fact that last year was a disappointment for Homa. He battled through prolonged struggles in his game, which ultimately led him to play a full swing season as things began to click again. To close out 2025, Homa posted two top-20 finishes and a top-10 in his final four starts. He is an average driver of the golf ball by PGA Tour standards, but pairs that with an above-average approach game and an elite short game. I’m hopeful he can build on that late-season momentum this week in California, where he has historically played his best golf.

Homa has played this event five times in his career, making the cut twice with one top-25 finish. Regardless, getting a six-time PGA Tour winner at these odds feels like a no-brainer opportunity to take a shot.

2025 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 146th

• Off-the-Tee: 106th

• Approach: 155th

• Around the Green: 127th

• Putting: 81st

I personally structure my outright betting cards to target a minimum return of 10x my unit.  In practice, this means I risk a total of one unit across all selections, with each individual bet paying out 10 units if it wins.  For example, if my unit is $100, each outright selection would return $1,000.  This approach aligns with my risk tolerance and ensures that hitting one winner in every ten events allows me to at least break even.

This is simply the system that works best for me.  I strongly encourage everyone to develop an approach that aligns with their own bankroll, risk tolerance, and betting goals.

Daily Fantasy Sports Breakdown

$10,000+ Range: Ludvig Åberg $10,300

We’re starting our DFS lineups with a game-theory play, as I expect Åberg to be the lowest-owned option in this price range. While I can never seem to get him right in the outright market, he has consistently been a reliable option for me in DFS.

Åberg captured his second PGA Tour victory last year at The Genesis Invitational, but cooled off shortly after. He rediscovered his form in the summer, closing out the PGA Tour season with five straight top-25 finishes, followed by three more top-25 results during the DP World Tour swing season. Åberg is elite off the tee, combining above-average distance with accuracy, and he also brings elite ball striking and putting.

If he does come in as one of the lowest-owned players in this price range, as I’m anticipating, he’ll be a key piece of my DFS lineups this week.

2025 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 49th

• Off-the-Tee: 14th

• Approach: 98th

• Around the Green: 129th

• Putting: 86th

$9,900 - $9,000 Range: Matt Fitzpatrick $9,500

I expect Fitzpatrick to fall somewhere in the middle to upper end of ownership within this price range, but as long as he isn’t one of the two highest-owned options, I’m comfortable locking him in.

As mentioned in my outright betting section, this isn’t typically a course where I’d target Fitzpatrick. However, across the PGA Tour and DP World Tour, he has recorded nine top-10 finishes in his last 15 starts, highlighted by a win in his most recent appearance at the DP World Tour Championship. He has been excellent off the tee, and his elite ball striking and short game make him one of the top talents in this field.

While he has never teed it up at The American Express, I’m more than happy to back a player of Fitzpatrick’s caliber and current form.

2025 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 34th

• Off-the-Tee: 82nd

• Approach: 76th

• Around the Green: 63rd

• Putting: 30th

$8,900 - $8,000 Range: Michael Thorbjornsen $8,600

Another player I expect to land in the middle to upper tier of ownership within this price range, but as long as he isn’t one of the two highest-owned options, I’m comfortable rolling him out.

Thorbjornsen ranks 13th in the field in birdie-or-better percentage and 2nd off the tee, which sets him up to rack up fantasy points this week. He was a popular pick throughout the swing season to earn his first PGA Tour victory, but was ultimately unable to break through. That said, I love him as a DFS option here. He is excellent off the tee, pairing well above-average driving distance with slightly above-average accuracy. He also brings an above-average ball-striking profile and putting stroke, with the ability to spike in both areas.

The 24-year-old will carry some ownership this week, but the upside is simply too strong to pass up.

2025 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 66th

• Off-the-Tee: 7th

• Approach: 76th

• Around the Green: 159th

• Putting: 120th

$7,900 - $7,000 Range: Jesper Svensson $7,100

When I was reviewing my model for outrights this week, Svensson’s name stood out. While I don’t expect him to win the tournament, I really like him as a DFS option.

Over the last 36 rounds, Svensson ranks inside the top 20 in birdie-or-better percentage and top 10 in both ball striking and off-the-tee. At this price point, he isn’t a fully polished golfer, but if he can make the cut and pick up some additional DFS points on Sunday, I think he could be a valuable piece of a winning lineup.

2025 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 55th

• Off-the-Tee: 10th

• Approach: 130th

• Around the Green: 64th

• Putting: 114th

$6,900 - $6,000 Range: Patrick Fishburn $6,800

If you need to dip into the $6K range this week, I like Patrick Fishburn as a viable option.

Fishburn doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses in his game, which makes him a steady DFS play week in and week out, but he also lacks a true standout skill that caps his upside. He hasn’t made the cut in his two previous appearances at this event, but last season he showed the ability to spike with both his approach play and putter. In what should be a birdie-heavy week, I’m looking for Fishburn to find form in those areas, make the cut, and add some extra DFS points on Sunday.

There isn’t much recent form to point to, and he recorded just four top-20 finishes all of last season, so his ceiling is limited. At this price range, however, I’m simply looking for him to get through the cut line.

2025 PGA Tour Strokes Rankings:

• Total: 46th

• Off-the-Tee: 45th

• Approach: 73rd

• Around the Green: 117th

• Putting: 58th

Gambling Disclaimer

All betting tips, opinions, and suggestions are provided for informational and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or gambling advice.  There is no guarantee of results, and past performance is not indicative of future outcomes.

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