Andrew’s Estonian Challenge (HPT) Preview

Before we start, two quick notes:

First, on the Utah Championship (KFT) preview – when I wrote it, Petr Hruby wasn’t in the field. He now is and is a recommended bet at 110/1 with Bet365. Just in case you read it too early!

Second on programming. As we’re coming into the holiday season, some of these previews are going to have to be written in advance of markets being released (and potentially before preceding events have finished) so there will be less coverage of previous events, less commentary on the market, and possibly no advised bets – but I’ll make sure that, at the very least, there’s a look at the course, the history of the event, and the sort of golfer I’m looking for. Then when I remotely/belatedly add my picks, you can hopefully see some logic. As further preparation for some lighter weeks, this week I’m also taking a step back to look at the overall shape of each tour and the fight for cards.

Goodness me, Hamish Brown, that was a brutal Sunday to wreck our chances of a winner. I certainly wasn’t counting my winnings on Sunday morning, but with a two-time winner on this tour (including in this event) starting in a three-way tie for first after two rock-solid rounds, I expected to be in the fight. It wasn’t to be, as Brown bogeyed two of his first three holes, added a snowman on the par-five 15^th, and dropped to a share of 15^th. Incredibly frustrating. 

We must, though, applaud the winner, Anton Albers, who grabbed a first professional win on his 58^th start at this level. The 27-year-old German wasn’t too far from home, and has previously gone well in similar events at Rosa and Hangzhou, so this wasn’t a total stunner, but it is easy to be wise after the event. He’s 17^th in the rankings and has work to do to secure his card, but has plenty of events coming up which suit (Rosa and Hangzhou again, but also Dormy, and potentially Scottish.) 

I’d be remiss not to mention, too, Tatsunori Shogenji, who was runner up on his HPT debut. The surprise was solely the speed with which he brought his undoubted skills to bear on a European event; he’s won four times in his native Japan and last year led the JPGT in all-round ranking and points, and was sixth in putting, eighth in GiR and fifth in total driving. He’ll be a threat every time he tees it up at this level.

State of the Tour

With 16-of-the-28 events completed, we’re into the second half of the season, and the current rankings make for intriguing reading. Cards will be handed out with varying statuses for finishes in the top 15, 20 and 30. For reference, last year’s point scorers in those positions scored 826, 683 and 567 respectively. The final event of the year is no-cut and worth 4000 points in total (last year, 22 for finishing in a tie for last and 640 for winning,) and the top 50 are guaranteed entry. Which means:

Already secured top 15 place: MJ Daffue, Pablo Ereno

Will get a top 15 with a few made cuts: Hamish Brown, Julien Sale, Maxense Giboudot, Will Enefer.

A couple of good results away from a card: Tapio Pulkkanen, Ryan van Velzen, MJ Viljoen, Pedro Figueredo, Filip Mzurek, Jhared Hack, John Gough, Lars van der Vight.

Need to keep scoring steadily: Adam Wallin, Kristian Krogh Johannessen, Anton Albers, Matthew Southgate, Chris Wood, Barclay Brown, Deon Germishuys, Alex Goff, Louis Albertse, John Catlin, Christofer Blomstrand

Need some high results or it’ll be a low-status card:  Dan Erickson, Calum Fyfe, Julian Perico, Bryce Easton, Liam Nolan, Tadeas Tetak, Lorenzo Scalise, David Horsey.

Everyone else is on the outside looking in. That includes: Marc Warren, Kieran Vincent, Jacopo Vecchi Fossa, Will Besseling, Tatsunori Shogenji, Jamie Rutherford, Eddie Pepperell.

When I review those lists, and think back over this season, the overriding sense is that this has been a down year for the HPT. Hey, they happen, and for every 2024 (Ayora, Reitan, here with the game to succeed at the DPWT level, but the likes of Hamish Brown have already tried before, whilst MJ Daffue is a veteran with a fairly marked ceiling. There are a few extremely talented youngsters who have, from a results perspective, underperformed my expectations, with Vecchi Fossa, Nolan, and Wallin leading the way. 

There are, as ever, a few players who are likely to move up if they commit to more events for the second half (Perico, Erickson, Catlin, Johannesen, Vincent) and a few who are likely to drop as the relative value of the South African events diminishes (Albertse, Germishuys, Easton, etc.) But that’s just noise. What we aren’t seeing is genuine brilliance. If there are stars on this tour, they’re the likes of Shogenji (59^th after one event) and Daniel Rodrigues (61^st after 11, but 45^th on the DPWT.) So there will be players to watch, with Brown, Wallin, Erickson, Perico and Daffue at the top of my list, but it’d be foolhardy to say that we’re dealing with an inspiring class. Q-school may yet produce bigger names for the big tour next year.

The Tournament

We do have something fresh and exciting to talk about this week, with the first ever visit to Estonia for the HPT. This is a wonderful bit of news for the region, the first professional tournament at this level in the Baltic states and among the first in the post-Soviet states (there have been sporadic Challenge Tour visits to Kazakhstan and Russia) and the sign of emerging golf courses and golfers. This has been headlined, of course, by Richard Teder, the Estonian amateur who notably holed out for eagle to win a spot in The Open at the West Lancs qualifier, and qualified there again (without the heroics) this year, when he also made the semi-finals of The Amateur Championship, again at West Lancs.  He’s ranked 63^rd in the WAGR and must wish all professional golf was played in England’s north-west. 

In truth, though, Teder included the Estonian contribution to this event is more likely to be in hospitality and potential rather than in leading golfers. Based on my own visits, I’d say the players, caddies and fans are in for a treat. It’s a wonderful and warm country. Is it a good golf course? That I’m less qualified to say, but I fear it isn’t great. There are 27 holes at the Estonia Golf and Country Club, which isn’t even the highest ranked golf course in the country. That’s not a problem in, say, Ireland or South Africa, but I’m not sure it is ideal in Estonia. The 18 holes that they’ll be playing (the Sea Course) add up to 7,096 yards for a par-72 that meanders through flattish, open ground along a river estuary and close to a bay off the Baltic. 

It’ll be cool and quite windy, especially on Friday and Saturday mornings (I don’t know if there’ll be a wave advantage but I’m not planning for one) and the course does look fairly exposed so some expertise in wind will be helpful. Ultimately this looks like a straightforward course falling somewhere between a coastal “modern links” and an exposed parkland track. I’m expecting a range of golfers to compete and winning scores to be low. The main thing I’m looking for is some “regional experience” – as I’ve said, I think Teder is underqualified to be a face of the tournament and will be inundated with media requests and the like, and I’m not sure the Estonians will be much involved, but Finland is very close, well-connected by ferry, and uniquely qualified to understand Estonian when spoken. I’m liking the chances of Finns, Scandinavians and Eastern Europeans. 

The Selections

This wasn’t particularly easy. It was impossible not to be impressed by Tatsunori Shogenji, as I said, and he’s a worthy favourite, whilst the form players and the returning Pablo Ereno and Adam Wallin all deserve their places towards the top of the market. In the end, I’m taking two from among the favourites and one at a longer price.

First on my list since this event was announced is Tapio Pulkkanen. It’s no secret that I’m a big fan of the be-trilbied Finn, and even though I failed to back him, I was delighted when he won in Denmark, his second win at this level and his first, curiously, since the aforementioned Kazakh event back in 2017. Denmark was a 7,100 yard par-72, impacted by winds coming off the Baltic, so I don’t have to work too hard to make it relevant. I’ve already mentioned the strong cultural and historic links between Finland and Estonia and, with this course a short ferry ride away from his home base, he’ll know the conditions well and be close to home. I think he’s got a cracking chance.

The other man I want to keep onside from among the market leaders is Kristian Krogh Johannessen who, as I mentioned, is sitting just outside the top-15 (and highest DPWT card category status) after only seven starts. So he needs more points but is going well on every opportunity. In fact, he’s been second, third and 11^th in his most recent three starts, and the Norwegian veteran is playing some of his best golf this year. Feels odd to call him a veteran at just 31, but he’s been around for a long time now and will be making his 116^th start on the HPT/CT, to go with 73 on the DPWT. At this level he’s simply a very good all-rounder, powerful enough to go well at The Vale in the English Challenge (second) but a good putter and scrambler. His best results on the DPWT were the Made in Himmerland in Denmark and the SDC Championship at St Francis Links in South Africa. That’s a pair of exposed, modern, coastal courses with plenty in common with this challenge. He won’t be phased by the cooler weather and should be at home in these Baltic conditions.

Finally, I’m taking a huge swing on an out of form golfer at a massive price. It isn’t because of his name, but he delights in the handle of Jacob Worm Agerschou. Guess what celebration I’ll be doing if he wins? (No, I won’t.  With my back, forget it.) Still, the Worm is out to a massive price on the back of seven missed cuts and a withdrawal in his last eight starts. Before that, however, he was sixth in Catalunya, and he’s more than got the talent for this level – presumably he’s been battling some form of injury or loss of form. Picking the moment he recovers isn’t easy, but if it does happen, it could very well be here. He was good enough to win three times on the fiercely competitive Nordic Golf League last year, including both events in Finland, and you know by now how strongly I rate that form. Aged 26, he’s clearly had his struggles to establish himself at this level but the talent is there and I am taking a gamble that he can return to his best in conditions that we know he’ll adore.

• Tapio Pulkkanen, 25/1

• Kristian Krogh Johannessen, 20/1

• Jacob Worm Agerschou, 750/1

All 1pt e/w, ¼ odds 5 places, Bet365.  As ever, you might get better prices (or more places for Agerschou) as other markets open.

Utah Championship – Updated:

• Christiaan Maas, 40/1, 1pt e/w, 1/5 odds 6 places, Sporting Index

• Barend Botha, 125/1, 1pt e/w, ¼ odds 5 places, Bet365

• Filip Jakubcik, 85/1, 1pt e/w, 1/5 odds 6 places, Sporting Index

• Petr Hruby, 110/1, 1pt e/w, ¼ odds 5 places, Bet365