Andrew's Hainan Open (HPT) Preview
The end of the year is coming fast for these columns, with the KFT wrapping up this week and just three weeks left on the HotelPlanner Tour. Before the season finale on Majorca, the top seventy are off to China, to be joined in the field by a group of 58 invitees who are primarily the elite of the (weak) China golf tour, plus a few Chinese amateurs and a couple of other tournament invitees. From a playoffs perspective, though, this is all about the visiting HPT players as they vie to improve their standings on the Road to Majorca and move up the categories to improve their playing chances next year.
We should look back to last week, and a victory for Liam Nolan in Abu Dhabi that was wonderful for the neutral – in a down year for talent on the HPT, he’s among the best out there, but his two years on this tour have been very inconsistent, with that win following a missed cut, and with just four top 15 performances all year. Still, he’s now ranked 12th and a DPWT card looks a likely outcome. At his best, he’s absolutely competitive at the next level up and I hope we see that consistency coming through as he continues to develop as a professional. Our tips were hit by the withdrawal of Dominic Foos but did very little. We’ll be back in Abu Dhabi in April, one assumes, but for now, let’s look ahead to China.
The Tournament
The first of these pair of events take us to Sanya Luhuito Golf Club, on Hainan Island, off the south coast of China and somewhere we know quite well at this stage. I previewed this event last year and not a great deal has changed. We are still looking for power from the tee, and if you can be long and straight, so much the better. This is resort golf and at less than 7,200 yards for a standard par-72, the par-fives especially are there to be taken down.
One change from last year is the conditions. It will be very wet indeed, and potentially we will struggle to see 72 holes completed if we get waterlogging or thunderstorms. That adds an element of increased volatility to scoring, though I don’t think there’ll be much of a draw advantage, and it also increases the premium on length from the tee. It does look like the weekend will be drier so let’s hope we can complete a full tournament. If the players are stuck in their rooms, they may find they have unwanted company.
Other than length, I’m looking for players who can putt well and go low. I think I’m more enthusiastic about the local threat than I have been in previous years, but that in part reflects the relative weakness of the visitors. Last year, Renato Paratore won in a playoff from Max Steinlechner (at -17) with Zhengkai Bai shooting a final round 65 to finish fourth, three back. He also won in 2022 (note: he’s frequently referred to as Bobby Bai, especially in US publications, so tread carefully around your chosen bookmaker!) He’s back, though he’s in poor form on the China Tour, having made only one cut in seven events. However, we would be foolish to rule out the local threat entirely. With the exception of a few powerful and talented youngsters (Hamish Brown, Pablo Ereno, the slightly older Adam Blomme) all of whom are pretty short in the market, there’s not much depth to fear here.
The Selections
I’m starting my team with Dominic Foos once again after he didn’t make it to the start last week. It isn’t clear why he missed last week (it may have been a response to the security risks, or a minor injury) which does add a little risk, but I can’t see any other downside. He’s a high-quality all around player who has already won on this tour this year, and needs another high finish to guarantee himself a DPWT card (he’s 30th currently.) He is extremely powerful from the tee and, unlike many of the Europeans in the field, is experienced in these sorts of conditions, playing last year on the Asian Tour and winning in Macao. That was a shorter par-70 but also an island resort course with similar conditions (also played in the October rainy season.) He’s an easy pick.
Secondly, I’m taking a pure bomber in Wilco Nienaber, who is undoubtedly the longest player on this Tour (by some measures, he’s the longest hitter in golf) but who, like Nolan, is maddeningly inconsistent. However, second in the Dormy Open and 28th last week show that he’s in decent form, and he is showing signs of being one of many South Africans who struggle to show their best form in Europe. He’s won twice on this tour in his native South Africa, but he’s gone notably well in events in the Middle East and Asia too. He was 11th here in 2024 on his sole start and is in better form and against a weaker field here. With a softened course, this will play to his considerable strength and whilst he’s a high-risk pick, if his irons and putter cooperate he could make mincemeat of this field.
Finally, I’ve said that the local threat is not to be sniffed at, and my choice from the China Tour is Zihao Jin. He’s something of a forgotten golfer at the moment though I fear that the bookies appear not to share in the amnesia. As a reminder, he played collegiate golf at San Diego and then struggled on the PGA Tour of the Americas in his first year as a pro. Next year, he returned home to make a real splash on the China Tour in 2024, with five wins and five more top fives making up his ten starts. In the midst of that, he was a short price for the HPT events (understandably) and finished 11th here and 20th in Hangzhou. All of that won him a place on the DPWT last year and he was genuinely poor – just four made cuts, though he did nab 7th in Kenya. A return home appears to have helped, and he’s had a string of top tens since, including a win in Guangdong. He comes here on the back of three top five finishes on the Asian Development Tour and China Tour and, if he’s anything like where he was in 2024, will find he’s taking on a weaker field with more experience, and at more attractive odds.
Dominic Foos, 45/1
Wilco Nienaber, 35/1
Zihao Jin, 28/1
All are 1pt e/w, ¼ odds 5 places Bet365. I had to wait flipping ages for odds, so you may find something more appealing by the time you place bets. However, don’t miss the start of play, which is Wednesday evening in the USA, around midnight Wednesday/Thursday in Europe.
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