Andrew's HPT Grand Final Preview
This, folks, will be my last preview column of 2026. On the KFT, we’ve seen some winners, but the HPT has been confounding. We have a shorter field taking part in the final event, and we’re coming to it after a week off. Let’s hope we can wrap up the year with a win. Before that, though, we should glance back at the Hangzhou Open, which was another Danish one-two, with Hamish Brown beating Kristian Bressum to win in China for the second time on this Tour, and to move to the top of the Road to Majorca rankings. Should he hold that position, he’d be a worthy winner – he’s got a combination of ability, experience, power and guts that few others can hope to match. In a year with some impossible to spot winners, he was one who clearly had a chance going in.
Of greater frustration is John Catlin, who I marked up as playing well in this part of the world and having a great chance at 50/1. Hard not to feel let down by him finishing 13th before vanquishing a much better field to win the Hong Kong Open and with that win, entries into The Masters and The Open. My other picks, Dan Erickson and Katsunori Shogenji, both made the weekend but didn't acheive much.
The Tournament
Catlin, though, still has work to do to secure a DPWT card to go with his Major entries. He, like Dominic Foos, sits well outside the top 15 who will earn the highest available category of DPWT cards and yet chose to start in Hong Kong ahead of coming here. Though I stand to be corrected, I believe they’re the only ones of the 45 teeing it up in Alcanada who didn’t have the week off after Hangzhou. Foos missed the cut which at least helps with the travel and the jet lag.
Those 45 make up the top of the Road to Majorca standings and all have something to play for, with 640 points going to the winner this year. That’ll be enough to grant a card to anyone picking up the win, and leaves the top spot open to a fair few, depending on the results of others. The rankings are, as ever, an essential starting point for picking your golfers this week. So too is the weather forecast, because as I said last year, this course is coastal and parts of it are pretty exposed. We are likely to get pretty good conditions, albeit with some rain on Sunday – it looks to be neither particularly cool nor particularly windy, which in late October is always a win in Europe.
The other thing I said last year is that this is a well-balanced course where the winner is likely to be simply one of the best golfers. I also said that the course skewed slightly towards bombers, whereupon James Morrison won and made me look foolish. Still, he followed Nathan Kimsey, Marco Penge and Kristoffer Reitan, so I’m sticking with my theory that pure class, hitting power and holing a few putts on the big days is the formula for success around here.
Once again, this is a well-televised event and I’d urge anyone in Europe (and anyone willing to stream from elsewhere, not that I’d know anything about that) to take a chance to see these players. This is a hugely consequential week and some of these guys will be on the DPWT next year. How they’ll do remains to be seen, but the evidence is strong that this week will be a good indicator of the guys with the skills to succeed.
The Selections
It is hardly a surprise that the field is headed by two bombers who’ve won this season in Spanish rookie Pablo Ereno and South African veteran MJ Daffue. Both will be playing with cards all but guaranteed and thus lower pressure and both are rock solid selections, as is Road to Majorca leader Brown, who sits next in the market. He was ninth here against a stacked field in 2024. However, I’m swerving each of those players in the search for better value and greater motivation. Also, with five places representing a ninth of the field, there is a real advantage in finding each-way value in this shorter field.
First on my list of selections is Adam Wallin, who looked like one of the best players on the tour earlier in the season before falling away somewhat. He missed five out of six cuts in July and August – though he was second on the sole occasion he played the weekend – but a seventh at Hainan two starts ago means that he turns up here in 11th; well positioned but needing a good week to guarantee that card. This course is susceptible to bombers and he’s a wonderfully powerful driver of the golf ball and a great course fit. He’s been a prolific winner throughout his brief career and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he picked up his maiden HPT win on the tour’s biggest stage.
Secondly, I am taking a risk that Dominic Foos is at his best. After withdrawing from the Abu Dhabi event and missing a cut, he was ninth in Hangzhou and then missed the cut narrowly in Hong Kong. Alcanada is a dramatically better course fit than Fanling for this young German who gives the ball a real wallop and won around a similarly wooded, coastal course in Finland this season. His price reflects his recent inconsistencies, but at 31st in the rankings he needs a big week and he certainly has the talent to pull it off.
For my last pick of the season, I’m turning to an old friend in Julian Perico, who is another needing a huge week, in his case to jump from 36th into the top 15. Last year he was 11th here and finished just outside the cards (they went to the top 22 in 2025 thanks to a larger allocation and two battlefield promotions) despite a brutal opening 74 that left him miles off the pace. A more consistent week is certainly possible at a course that will suit, and a fifth place in Hangzhou shows that the young Peruvian has returned to form at just the right time.
Adam Wallin, 25/1, 1pt e/w, 1/4 odds 5 places, Ladbrokes
Dominic Foos, 33/1, 1pt e/w, 1/4 odds 5 places, Ladbrokes
Julian Perico, 50/1, 1pt e/w, 1/4 odds 5 places, Skybet
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