Andrew's KFT Championship Preview
It doesn’t feel like that long ago that I sat down on a cold evening after taking down the Christmas decorations to write a preview of the Bahamas Golf Classic. A lot of water has flowed under the bridge since then. My love for Sandy Scott’s golf game has been justified (though my love for Barend Botha’s, perhaps less so.) Taylor Dickson won that week and is now one of the players to watch as he clings to a card despite weak form. Yes, we’ve come to the end of the Korn Ferry Tour season. We’re running at a 31-percent profit thanks mainly to wins for Sandy Scott, Ross Steelman and (in the first round leader market) Cristobal del Solar.
Before we round of the year with a look at the Korn Ferry Tour Championship, a look back to the Compliance Solutions Championship, which managed to be predictably straightforward for the golfers and very tricky for me. Plenty of friends contacted me to ask about Chris Francoeur, and I couldn’t see the appeal. I certainly do see the appeal of William Sides and Sandy Scott and I’ve written about both of them. All would have be much better picks than either Barend Botha or Tommy Morrison, the latter missing the cut inexplicably. Although I’m delighted for Scott, clearly in the form of his life and living up to my hopes, seeing ten players finish a “playoff” at -20 is a ridiculous state of affairs, and in truth it could have been worse. I still think we’ll see a 56 and an aggregate -35 before we move away from this farcical venue. Anyway, let’s move on.
The Tournament
The top sixty on the KFT money list are heading for a new venue, The Federal Club in Richmond, Virginia. As a reminder, the top 20 will gain PGA Tour cards. Currently seven have secured their cards, with Cole Hammer currently sitting in 20th and Yuta Sugiura a place outside the lucky spots. In many ways, that’s more important than a victory this week., which is a huge advantage for the seven who don’t have to think about it. There is also the question of number one status, which has practical implications as well as prestige, and Scott now holds a very narrow lead over Ross Steelman (23 points.)
With the PGA sitting in the Japanese time zone there’s a real opportunity for the KFT to grab some limelight. It is, as I’ve been saying all year, a crying shame that the excellent and challenging Pete Dye course at French Lick no longer provides a worthy championship challenge. The new venue seems… fine?
We probably need more to go onthan just “fine.” Well, this is an Arnold Palmer designed par-71 that will probably play to sub-7,000 yards most days, though the theoretical maximum is 7,073. It is around twenty years old and is a typical high-end country club course, set up to be as challenging as possible for tournament week but designed for members, and as such neither especially long nor with particularly challenging green complexes. Whilst by all accounts they’re aiming for a week of firm conditions, I don’t think scrambling will be unusually hard, and whilst the greens are tiered, they aren’t going to be especially hard to play on. It looks like the weather will cooperate with that wish.
So I think this all comes down to approach. With a shortish course and greens requiring careful approach, what else could matter? Moreover, that’s a very Arnold Palmer setup, and I would like to see players who can stay out of trouble off the tee and put their approaches to the right parts of greens. Birdies will be necessary as I suspect winning scores will be adistance below par. Other than that, I’m looking for players with the mental fortitude to enjoy the challenge of playing under career-changing levels of pressure.
The Selections
This decision was made far harder when Ben Kohles (firstin greens in regulation and strokes gained: approach, and third in driving accuracy – the keys stats for me this week) decided to take up his invitation for the Baycurrent Classic rather than attending. Given he will hold a card for the PGA next year anyway, it is certainly understandable, but it is a frustration. Similarly, I would have been tempted to take Sandy Scott were he not unbackably short, in my view, at 8/1.
On this basis, my first pick is Yuta Sugiura, who has shown throughout his short professional and amateur careers that he’s more than capable of rising to the occasion. He enters the last competition with 898 points, of which 665 were picked up over the last four events, over which he’s pushed himself from on the brink of no KFT status to the brink of PGA status. Impressive stuff – and he’s done it not only with a win but with rock-solid playoff results too. This is all in keeping with someone who was seventh on his first DPWT start, who won his first Japanese Tour start as a professional, and who shot a final round 68 to win a KFT card on the number at Q-school last year. He’s tough, and he’s playing good golf. Oh, and in finishing 11th last week he came sixth in driving accuracy and 11th in strokes gained: approach, exactly the sort of game that will thrive here.
At a shorter price, I think the only favourite who offers win-only value is Cooper Dossey, who comes here in great form (sixth, fourth and 11th over the playoffs) and, sitting in 11th, has relatively little to do to guarantee a card. He’s yet to win this year, something he’s presumably keen to rectify, but he has been consistently excellent, with 13 top 25 finishes this year, the majority coming on the comparatively short courses like this. Ranking 21st in driving accuracy and 13th in greens in regulation (to say nothing of sixth in putting) that’s hardly a surprise. The young Texan can certainly put a bow on a great season with a win here.
Finally, John Pak makes enormous appeal as a course fit for this new venue, ranking fourth in driving accuracy and sixth in strokes gained on approach. Whilst he isn’t in the greatest form, there’s nothing much wrong with four made cuts in succession. Like Sugiura, he sits outside the top 20 (he’s 26th and 86 points back) but within striking distance, and as a man who played on the PGA in 2025 he will be keen to get back and knows more than many of the youngsters what is expected.
Yuta Sugiura, 70/1, 1pt e/w, ¼ odds 5 places, Bet365
Cooper Dossey, 22/1, 2pts win only, Bet365
John Pak, 50/1, 1pt e/w, ¼ odds 5 places, Bet365
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