Andrew's NV5 Invitational Preview (2025)
- Nate (@WeKnowFantasy)
- Jul 23
- 5 min read
While everyone’s attention was on some bloke called Scottie batting it around on the Northern Irish Coast, there was another week of action on both the HPT and KFT. My selections showed real promise in Germany, with both Luis Masaveu and Lauri Ruuska having a real chance of placing before dropping back to each finish T11. The methodology was strong, however, with effective drivers like JC Ritchie (a comfortable winner,) Josh Berry and Filippo Celli establishing the combination of class and driving prowess that we were looking for. The KFT was a tougher week, and unlike Jim (of this parish) I couldn’t have found Chandler Blanchet with a great deal of options. Recent pick Brendan Valdes picked up a third place on just his sixth pro start, and the Auburn Grad is one to watch for the rest of this year and especially when we return to his beloved South-East (he’s an Orlando native, as well as his Georgia ties.)
There’s a welcome break on the HotelPlanner Tour this week but the KFT rolls onwards. We are reaching the point of the season where the order of merit starts to really matter – the HPT has eight regular events left, plus two restricted field numbers in China and the Grand Final, whilst the KFT has just four more events before the three playoff events and the KFT Championships. So we’ll continue to look at all the usual questions of form, course suitability and the like, but motivation regarding rankings is definitely a factor, adding another layer of complexity. Let’s get into it.
The Tournament
We’re at The Glen Club in Glenville, Illinois, just north of Chicago. This is a venue that has been picked for one reason and one reason only; it is just north of Chicago. This part of the world doesn’t get as much professional golf as a large and active golf market deserves, and they’ve found a course that is easily accessible from greater Chicago as well as from Milwaukee. That’s great. It is walkable and will have huge crowds. That’s great too. That is also the end of the good news.
This is a Tom Fazio design and it is very much the antithesis of last week’s Royal Portrush – entirely artificial (2.5 million cubic yards of earth were moved to set this course up; I don’t know what that means but it feels like a massive number to me) and with no links to what was there before. This was an air base and that gives an indication of how flat the course was before anyone got to work on it.
What we’re left with is a course of 7,100 yards playing as a par 71, with two par fives on the way out and one on the way back, and two par threes in each half. Scoring has tended to be pretty low – this is the sixth event held here and the winning scores have ranged from -17 to -25. The first edition was won by that Scottie bloke in what was his second and undoubtedly final KFT victory. Last year saw Thomas Rosenmuller beating Karl Vilips at a score of -25, but in other years comparatively short hitters (winners Harry Hall and Curtis Thompson, high finishers like Marcelo Rozo or Justin Suh) have succeeded based much more on accuracy. It all comes down to weather . This being “the windy city” there is a major defence if it is blowy – and on Thursday, it will be. Friday will be wet and then the weekend will be played on a calmer, softer course and that’s where I think the scoring will come. So some ability in poor conditions is helpful, and I think anyone making the cut has a decent shout in the second half of this event.
The Selections
Again, I’d direct anyone having a serious look at this event to start with the points standing. Twenty players will win PGA cards this year and I’d say that the top seven or so (Smotherman, Keefer, Shipley, Lebioda, Kim, Coody and Blanchett) are safe. But players in the range from about 10-40 are very well aware that one good week now is career defining. This is the stuff that makes these development tours so appealing. All three of my picks are in that range this week.
First, I’m taking Kensei Hirata, who started the season excellently but has dropped away of late. He is ranked 17th and has three top tens, and it is notable that one came off a break, and two came following a missed cut. I don’t know if that is a coincidence, but I do wonder if the young Japanese rookie is struggling with the grind of a long season on unfamiliar courses and far from home. If so, is there a reason to think he’ll turn it around now? Well, he missed the cut last week which my amateur psychology thinks is potentially helpful. He’s also proved to be effective at shorter and windier courses (Chile, Bahamas, BMW Charity) which is what he’ll face here.
Second and with even more confidence I’m taking Adrien Dumont de Chassart, who I thought I’d be leaving out as I didn’t imagine the prices would make him backable, but I’m happy to take him to win. He might be Belgian but this is effectively a home game for the University of Illinois product, who was tenth here on his sole start in 2023 and who comes here from a fifth last week. His best career performance came on the exposed, windy Port Royal course (he was third in the PGA event in Bermuda in 2024) and it is surprising that he’s outside of the top twenty – at 23rd. That’s in part because he’s played on various tours, starting just thirteen times from the eighteen possible KFT events. This is the week he gets back on track to win his card.
Finally, I’m taking a very attractive long price on a boom-or-bust prospect in Bryson Nimmer. Nimmer sits in 25th on the order of merit but he’s done that courtesy of a win in the Tulum (one of just twelve starts) and two other top 20's. He’s missed four cuts and withdrawn once, and he’s only played the weekend once in his last four starts. It is notable that he’s best on shorter courses – Tulum is juust about medium length but BMW Charity and AdventHealth are notably short. Nimmer ranks 128th in driving distance but he’s extremely accurate and will be effective here – something he proved last year when coming 11th off missing three cuts in his previous four events. He is a long, long way from reliable. But he’s a massive price, a motivated golfer, a winner this season and he goes well here. That’ll do for me.
· Adrien Dumont de Chassart, 18/1, 2pts win only, Bet365.
· Kensei Hirata, 45/1, 1pt e/w, ¼ odds 5 places, Bet365.
· Bryson Nimmer, 225/1, 1pt e/w, ¼ odds 5 places, SkyBet.
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