Andrew's Utah Championship (KFT) Preview

Before we start, a quick note on programming.  As we’re coming into the holiday season, some of these previews are going to have to be written in advance of markets being released (and potentially before preceding events have finished) so there will be less coverage of previous events, less commentary on the market and possibly no advised bets – but I’ll make sure that, at the very least, there’s a look at the course, the history of the event and the sort of golfer I’m looking for. Then when I remotely/belatedly add my picks, you can hopefully see some logic. As further preparation for some lighter weeks, this week I’m also taking a step back to look at the overall shape of each tour and the fight for cards.

A barnstorming week in Chicago ended comfortably, as Tommy Morrison made winning at this level look easy. Although he wasn’t tipped this week, given the price, it certainly wasn’t a surprise. More on Big Tommy later. Our picks were solid rather than spectacular, with 110/1 shot Noah Goodwin sitting in a tie for third on Saturday night before he faded back to tenth on the final week. The fun continues back in the mountains on Thursday.

 

State of the Tour

Spoiler alert: I won’t be particularly enthusiastic about this year’s HPT crop. In looking at the KFT group, however, there’s plenty of reason for enthusiasm, and part of that is down to the PGA Tour U grads. I wrote about them at length last week, before the Evans Scholars saw Morrison grab a first win for this spectacular ninesome (nonet?) and Luke Potter become the fourth of the group to pick up a top five finish. It was yet another great week and Morrison looks all but certain to grab a PGA card at the end of the year. Let’s have a table. I’ll keep this updated periodically as we come towards the sharp end of the season.

Player	Finish	KFT Ranking	Best Result
Christiaan Maas	T34	94	T5
Jase Summy	MC	97	T3
Filip Jakubcik	T39	153	T28
Luke Potter	4	100	4
Tommy Morrison	Won	8	1st
William Sides	T25	104	T10
Mahanth Chirravuri	MC	175	T29
Frankie Harris	T39	147	T13
Wells Williams	MC	219	T64

Away from the midseason entrants, there was already plenty to like from this group. Twenty PGA cards will be given out, and from the points list you’ll see that the top five have already exceeded the 1,030 points that secured Pontus Nyholm the final spot last season. That quintet (Doc Redman, Ian Holt, Cole Sherwood, Ross Steelman and Hunter Eichhorn) look all but certain to make it the big dance next season, and I’d be surprised if Alistair Docherty, Dylan Menante and Morrison haven’t done enough to get over the line simply by turning up in playoff events and making the odd cut.

There’s a little more work for the next few to do but it is a group that have excellent chances and it includes some enticing names. I certainly thing that Steelman, Menante and Morrison have the talent to hold their cards, and I’d say the same for a few more if they can make it – in particular Blades Brown, Cooper Dossey, James Nicholas and Davis Lamb. From outside the top twenty, I’m rooting for a few more of the PGA Tour U grads, as well as Sandy Scott, Logan McAllister and Mason Andersen, any of whom could show the value of this development tour with success at the next level. 

It is certainly the new grads who add lustre to this crew, but this was a solid group of PGA players fighting back towards the top, youngsters who’ve taken a few years to develop, and hot talents, as well as a few experienced veterans enjoying career years. I’m enthusiastic – and I think they could well have more of an impact than the DPWT graduates in 2027.

The Tournament

Distraction over, we have a tournament to prepare for. I’m not going to spend long on this one. We’re at Oakridge Country Club in Ogden, Utah, for a bomber-friendly event at altitude that I covered last year and that has been going on for a while. As I noted last year, “since we moved here [to Oakridge CC] winners have included Kris Ventura, Cam Champ and Karl Vilips, the latter dropping the scoring record to 259, which is -25 on this 7,653 yard par-72. That Vilips went on to win the Puerto Rico Open on the big tour this season further confirms what we’re looking for – you simply need to be very long from the tee and ideally be on a good week for putting and approach. It does seem that recent form helps, and it is also probably true that some experience at altitude is ideal.”

This year we are a fortnight after the Blue Championship in Colorado, also hot (there’s heat advisories this week but no other weather concerns), also at altitude, and also favouring bombers. So I’m looking closely at results from there as well as from this course and other events at altitude. Sadly, I’m not able to back Petr Hruby, who I have long admired and who has gone well here, but doesn’t attend. Doc Redman and Cole Sherwood, one and three on the points list, are also missing, as is Ben Kohles, 13^th, who will certainly prefer the challenges awaiting him in the Rocket Classic. Kohles is currently in the Bet365 market, so backing against him early is advised.

The Selections

Among those who have made the trip, my hope was that I’d see good prices for the players I backed in the Blue Championship, and Christiaan Maas is still very attractively priced to bring up the double for Longhorns grads. I noted that he is a “native of Pretoria in South Africa, he grew up playing golf at altitude and in punishing heat, and these conditions will suit him ideally. He’s not played enough on tour to have ranking statistics – he came here as the number two PGA Tour U graduate and has only made two starts thus far – but he gives the ball a heck of a whack and his college coach notes him as a brilliant scrambler and creative player.” He finished fourth that week and is more than capable of making the tiny improvements needed to win.

Similarly, I was delighted by the price of Barend Botha, who was second in this event last year, and is on a run of improved form with four of the last five cuts made after a weak start, including good performances in Colorado and in the heat of Amarillo. He’s another South African with a typically excellent record at altitude and he rates a must bet at this price.

Finally, in the absence of Petr Hruby I’m taking another Czechia native and another of the NCAA stars, the overpriced Filip Jakubcik. After spending his college years at Arizona State there’s nothing about golf in the mountains and the desert that will phase this future star, who won the NIT in Tuscon, Arizona and the NCAA regional at Dove Mountain. He’ll be entirely at home here,  and was a higher-rated amateur than Tommy Morrison. Solid rather than spectacular so far in his very brief KFT career, he’s another who can take inspiration from Morrison’s performance and can step up to the top step.

Edit: With Petr Hruby added to the field, he's a must-bet at a triple-figure price. He's at his best in mountainous, desert golf, where he won a PGA Q-school qualifier in California and he was 19th in this last year when playing vastly inferior golf. Comes here on form after finishing 7th in Colorado and 10th last week and can make a mockery of these prices.

• Christiaan Maas, 40/1, 1pt e/w, 1/5 odds 6 places, Sporting Index

• Barend Botha, 125/1, 1pt e/w, ¼ odds 5 places, Bet365

• Filip Jakubcik, 85/1, 1pt e/w, 1/5 odds 6 places, Sporting Index

• Petr Hruby, 110/1, 1pt e/w, ¼ odds 5 places, Bet365