Out of the Rough: DP World Tour Championship (2025)

We prepare to put a cap on the 2025 DP World Tour season with this week’s DP World Tour Championship.

This event was first staged 16 years ago when the DP World Tour emulated the PGA Tour’s FedEx Cup with its own version - the Race to Dubai.

Traditionally, this event draws a star-studded field as it consists of the top 50 golfers within the Race to Dubai standings and this year is no different.

The DP World Tour Championship is the fifth and final event of the Rolex Series and usually, the winner of the season-long battle is determined at this event.

Rory McIlroy currently holds a 767.02 point lead over second place Marco Penge despite Penge playing 25 events to Rory’s ten. The winner of this event is granted 2,000 Race to Dubai points. There is a world where Rory doesn’t win his fourth consecutive Race to Dubai Championship but it won’t be easy.

The Field

The field consists of the top 50 golfers of the season-long Race to Dubai Standings through last week’s Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship.

Of course, the field is headlined by three-time defending Race to Dubai Champion McIlroy who seeks a fourth consecutive title.

Penge comes in as the closest competitor to McIlroy across the season long Race to Dubai standings. He’ll be joined by DP World Tour regulars Kristoffer Reitan, Adrien Saddier, John Parry, Alex Noren, Laurie Canter, Haotong Li, Daniel Brown, Keita Nakajima, among others.

PGA Tour regulars Robert MacIntyre, Aaron Rai, Tommy Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick, Nicolai Hojgaard, Triston Lawrence, Justin Rose, Rasmus Hogjaard, Michael Kim, Ludvig Aberg and Shane Lowry will join McIlroy in Dubai this week.

Tyrrell Hatton, Patrick Reed and Tom McKibbin will represent LIV Golf this week.

Not only is McIlroy the defending Race to Dubai Champion, he too won this event by two strokes over Rasmus Hojgaard a season ago.

The Course

The Earth Course at Jumeirah Golf Estates in Dubai, UAE has been the host of this event since its inception in 2009.

It plays as a Par-72 at 7,706 yards.

The Earth Course is a Greg Norman design that is best described as a long typical desert track.

As displayed in the course’s scorecard yardage, it is a long course where distance off-the-tee is favored over accuracy. The fairways are also rather generous.

Although distance is much more important than accuracy, golfers can’t be completely wild off-the-tee. Over the years as the course has matured, missing the fairways has become slightly penal.

There are also 99 sand bunkers littered throughout the course and water is in play on holes six, 14, 16, 17 and multiple times on 18.

The greens are made up of a Tifeagle Bermuda. They are large in size and undulating with plenty of run-off areas. They typically run at 12 on the Stimpmeter.

The finishing holes here at the Earth Course offer a stunning finish that has the potential to produce drama down the stretch.

The par-three 17th features an island green and the par-five 18th has water in play twice if a golfer goes for the green and three times if they opt to lay-up.

It is also worth noting that getting off to a good start this week is a must. Rahm was tied for 14th and five off the lead with a two-under-par 70 in round in 2022. That was the furthest anyone started the week back to go on and win.

Every other winner has started with a round in the 60s and this course is definitely a frontrunner’s track.

The first seven winners and 13-of-the-16 to date opened with a round of 68 or better and were within the top six places after the first day.

The Weather

As of the time of writing this, there is no chance of precipitation across all four days. Temperatures are set at 87-degrees across all four days as well. Winds are set at 13 miles-per-hour across Thursday and Friday before dipping to 12 miles-per-hour on Saturday and returning to 13 miles-per-hour on Sunday. Overall, exactly what you can expect.

Key Stats

• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (SG: OTT) / Average Driving Distance

• Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: PUTT)

• Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: APP)

• Greens in Regulations Percentage (GIR%)

• Par 5 Average Scoring

• Scrambling

• Strokes Gained: Around the Green (SG: ATG)

• Sand Saves Percentage

Betting Card

Matt Fitzpatrick (+1600)

I’m going back to the well. At this point, I might as well be a Fitzpatrick fanboy. He is currently first on Tour in SG: ATG, second in par-five average scoring, eighth in GIR%, ninth in SG: PUTT, 12th in SG: APP, 13th in three-putt avoidance, 29th in average driving distance, 30th in sand saves percentage, 47th in scrambling and 48th in SG: OTT. He tails just McIlroy and Fleetwood in my overall model, and honestly, not by much. He did place 32nd last week at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship but prior to that placed 21st at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, fifth at the BMW PGA Championship, fifth at the Omega European Masters, sixth at the Betfred British Masters, fourth at The Open Championship and fourth at the Genesis Scottish Open. He has proven to play links golf extremely well this season. He last played this event in 2023 where he placed 23rd but he did place fifth here in 2022 and second in 2021. He won this event in 2020 but at the Fire Course at this same golf venue. He also won this event (again at a different course) back in 2016. 

Marco Penge (+2800)

Of those playing regular DP World Tour golf and receiving their PGA Tour for 2026, I believe there is just one elite talent and that is Penge. Outside of placing ninth last week, he won his start prior at the Open de Espanda. He also won the Danish Golf Championship and the Hainan Classic this season. He will be making his tournament debut this week. He is currently first on Tour in SG: OTT, fifth in average driving distance, tenth in GIR%, 12th in par-five average scoring, 34th in SG: PUTT, 39th in three-putt avoidance, 42nd in SG: APP, 83rd in sand saves percentage, 88th in scrambling and 131st in SG: ATG. 

Angel Ayora (+6000)

I know I’m placing money on Ayora but a win would secure himself a PGA Tour card for 2026 and I believe he’s better suited to spend at least one more season at this level. Either way, he’s a hot putter away from disrupting things and catapulting himself into the big leagues. He’s currently fourth on Tour in SG: OTT, seventh in par-five average scoring, tenth in average driving distance, 27th in GIR%, 29th in scrambling, 31st in SG: APP, 70th in SG: ATG, 71st in sand saves percentage, 100th in three-putt avoidance and 133rd in SG: PUTT. He lost strokes putting last week at the clip of -0.25 strokes-per-round and still went on to place ninth in the best field he’s ever seen. He gained strokes-putting at the Genesis Championship at 0.48 strokes-per-round and went on to place seventh. He missed the cut at the DP World Tour India Championship on the number. Prior to that he placed ninth at the Open de Espana where he gained 0.67 strokes-putting-per-round. He also gained 0.38 strokes-per-round putting in a fifth place finish at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. What I’m getting at here is, the putter is coming around and when it does fully, he will be in the winner’s circle. He also placed 56th at the FedEx Open de France, 54th at the BMW PGA Championship, fifth at the Amgen Irish Open, eighth at the Omega European Masters and 13th at the Betfred British Masters. 

Adrien Saddier (+20000)

We need a longshot on the card and I’m going really long. Saddier placed 41st last week at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship. Prior to that he missed the cut at the DP World Tour India Championship and placed 138th at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. Prior to that he placed 32nd at the FedEx Open de France, second at the BMW PGA Championship and fifth at the Amgen Irish Open. He is currently 23rd on Tour in three-putt avoidance, 29th in par-five average scoring, 40th in SG: ATG, 41st in SG: OTT, 50th in scrambling, 51st in sand saves percentage, 54th in SG: APP, 57th in GIR%, 59th in SG: PUTT and 77th in average driving distance. A well rounded game.