Out of the Rough: The Open Championship (2026)

The 154th edition of the World’s longest standing golf tournament, The Open Championship, is upon us.

This nomadic event, although always held at a links style course, will take to Royal Birkdale in Southport, England. 

This year marks the 11th time that Royal Birkdale has hosted The Open Championship, the first since 2017. Jordan Spieth won his third major championship at Royal Birkdale in 2017. 

Royal Birkdale first held The Open Championship in 1954 when Australian Peter Thomson claimed his first of five The Open Championship titles. 

Come this time next week, the Champion Golfer of the Year will be crowned.

The Field

Spieth won the 2017 The Open Championship, the last time Royal Birkdale hosted the event. The victory served as his third and final major title as he returns this week to end the nine year skid.

Scottie Scheffler, fresh off his first missed cut since the 2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship, at last week’s Genesis Scottish Open, comes in as the defending champion. Scheffler won last year’s installment by four strokes over Harris English.

Tommy Fleetwood grew up just around-the-corner from Royal Birkdale and was known to sneak onto the course to practice growing up. Justin Rose too spent a portion of his childhood in the Southport area.

Fleetwood and Rose will be featured names looking to end the American’s run of dominance in hoisting the Claret Jug as they’ve won each of the last three installments. Notably, Rory McIlroy joins the non-American contingent, looking to claim his second Open title, last winning in 2014.

Each golfer within the top 75 of the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR) will be teeing it up this week.

The LIV Golf Tour will see 16 members represent them this week, headlined by former champions Cameron Smith (2022) and Louis Oosthuizen (2010.)

Additionally, for the first time ever, a special 12-man “Last-Chance Qualifier" will take place Monday (7/13) with the winner granted the final spot into the 154th The Open Championship. Notable names playing in the “Last-Chance Qualifier” include Aldrich Potgieter and Matti Schmid.

Other former The Open Championship winners playing this week include Xander Schauffele (2024,) Brian Harman (2023,) Collin Morikiawa (2021,) Shane Lowry (2019,) Francesco Molinari (2018,) Henrik Stenson (2016,) Darren Clarke (2011,) Stewart Cink (2009,) Padraig Harrington (2006 and 2007) and David Duval (2001.)

The Course

Royal Birkdale plays as a par-70 at 7,223 yards.

Royal Birkdale is known as the most “fair” course within the ten courses that are in the current rotation for The Open Championship.

Unlike most courses in the rota, Royal Birkdale has very little quirk about it. There are no random bounces, unpredictable circumstances and no blind shots on the course.

It is routed through the great sand dunes on the south end of Southport. Due to this, the fairways sit within “valleys” of the dunes, seeing them hold true with just the slightest of undulations.

Due to this, the course is designed to reward the consistently straight drivers of the golf ball who have some pop off-the-tee as well.

What makes Royal Birkdale unique is the existence of naturalistic-looking bunkers to go along with the infamous links pot bunkers.

These naturalist-looking bunkers include irregular edges and somewhat less stocked sod than the traditional pot bunkers.

The greens at Royal Birkdale are known to be exceptionally large and flat in their pin locations. However, the troubles came around-the-green with deep pot bunkers and severe run-off areas opposed to a more traditional thick fescue.

Since we last saw this course host The Open Championship in 2017, Tom Mackenzie and Mike Howard of Mackenzie and Ebert oversaw a subtle yet extensive renovation.

As previously mentioned, one of Royal Birkdale’s quirks is the inclusion of severe run-off areas around-the-green obsessed to the more traditional thick fescue. This came as Macekznie pulled away vegetation to expose more sand to expose more of the dunescape.

The short par-four fifth hole was manicured to encourage more players to try to go-for-the-green off-the-tee.

As most golf courses are seeking added distance in their renovations, Mackenzie and Howard shortened the par-three seventh by about 25-yards. In the end, the hole now has a similar feel than that of the “Postage Stamp” at Royal Troon.

In 2013, Royal Birkdale was the site of Spieth's famous wild tee shot to the right. In true Spieth fashion, he made the impossible possible. However, we will not see a recreation of that shot this year as that area is included to be out-of-bounds.

Mackenzie and Howard convinced the club to remove the traditional par-three 14th hole from the routing to accommodate a brand new 15th hole.

Now, the previous hole 15, a par five, will play as the 14th hole this week.

The new 241-yard par-three 15th saw a repositioned green moved approximately 75 yards to the right. This hole will probably feature the lowest green-in-regulation percentages of any this week. 

The 18th, already known as one of the toughest finishes in the Open rota, also received a facelift. The hole was extended by 20 yards. Although it once featured a dog-leg and is now a more start-forward affair, the presence of a tight fairway with a half-dozen bunkers in play make it a daunting task.

Anyone needing a good score on the final hole will have to find an exact landing spot off-the-tee to avoid the bunkers then hit the green surrounded by grandstands. 

The Weather

As of the time of writing this, there is at most, a ten-percent chance of precipitation across all four days this week. Temperatures will be the warmest on Thursday at 83-degrees before dropping to 77-degrees on Friday and then settling to 74-degrees across both days of the weekend. Winds will begin at 12 miles-per-hour out of the East on Thursday. Winds will settle to 11 miles-per-hour on Friday but will change to be coming out of the north. Winds will continue out of the north on Saturday at 12 miles-per-hour before shifting to out of the north-west and ticking up to 13 miles-per-hour on Sunday.

Key Stats

• Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: APP)

• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (SG: OTT)

• Total Driving (70-percent Driving Accuracy / 30-percent Average Driving Distance)

• Ball Striking

• Strokes Gained: Around the Green (SG: ATG)

• Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: PUTT)

• Scrambling

• Sand Saves Percentage

• Proximity to the hole from 150-200 Yards

• Three Putt Avoidance

• Bounce Back

Betting Card

Tommy Fleetwood (+2100)

Although I took a long hard look at Scottie Scheffler (+750,) Fleetwood came second in my stats-based model this week. He is currently first on Tour in scrambling, third in SG: ATG, seventh in total driving, 20th in SG: OTT, 21st in three-putt avoidance, 29th in bounce back, 39th in ball striking, 42nd in SG: APP, 45th in sand saves percentage, 61st in SG: PUTT and 81st in proximity to the hole from 150-200 yards. Fleetwood comes into this week on great form. He placed 13th last week at the Genesis Scottish Open. Prior to that he placed 14th at the Travelers Championship, 11th at the U.S. Open, 11th at the RBC Canadian Open and fourth at the Memorial Tournament. He’s also been rather good at The Open Championship across the last six seasons. He placed 16th a season ago, missed the cut in 2024, placed tenth in 2023, fourth in 2022, 33rd in 2021 and second in 2019.

Collin Morikawa (+3300)

We last saw Morikawa at the Travelers Championship where he placed third with his final round 61. Prior to that he placed 17th at the U.S. Open and 29th at the Memorial Tournament. The form at The Open Championship for Morikawa since his victory in 2021 has not been great. He missed the cut in each of 2025, 2023 and 2022 while placing 16th in 2024. However, stats wise, he lines up to Royal Birkdale well. He is currently second on Tour in SG: APP, fourth in total driving, seventh in ball striking, tenth in bounce back, 25th in SG: OTT, 33rd in sand saves percentage, 43rd in three-putt avoidance, 62nd in proximity to the hole from 150-200 yards, 78th in SG: PUTT, 80th in SG: ATG and 125th in scrambling. 

Sam Burns (+5000)

I knew I was betting Sam Burns this week for a very long time, just as I had at Shinnecock Hills for the U.S. Open. Burns was a mere few inches away from sinking a putt on 18 at Shinnecock on Sunday that would have ultimately sent him to a playoff with eventual winner Wyndham Clark. He was the class of the field on that final round. Burns is also in some great form coming into this week. Burns is currently fourth on Tour in SG: PUTT, 22nd in ball striking, 35th in three-putt avoidance, 45th in bounce back, 46th in SG: OTT, 49th in sand saves percentage, 52nd in both SG: APP, 74th in scrambling, 79th in total driving, 93rd in proximity to the hole from 150-200 yards and 111th in SG: ATG. He placed 13th in his latest outing at the Travelers Championship. He was the runner-up at the U.S. Open and also placed 20th at the RBC Canadian Open, fourth at the Memorial Tournament and 26th at the PGA Championship. He placed 45th at The Open Championship a season ago. He also placed 31st in 2024, missed the cut in 2023, 42nd in 2022 and 76th in 2021.

J.J. Spaun (+9000)

Spaun, the 2025 U.S. Open Champion, has played The Open Championship once prior, placing 23rd a season ago. He placed 44th last week at the Genesis Scottish Open. Prior to that he placed seventh at the Travelers Championship, missed the cut at the U.S. Open, 12th at the Memorial Tournament and sixth at the Charles Schwab Challenge. Spaun is currently third on Tour in proximity to the hole from 150-200 yards, fourth in SG: APP, 28th in total driving, 33rd in ball striking, 44th in SG: OTT, 55th in SG: ATG, 83rd in bounce back, 98th in sand saves percentage, 118th in three-putt avoidance, 128th in SG: PUTT and 131st in scrambling. The putter is and will always be the problem for Spaun. The Open Championship is one of those events you can get away with not being the best of putters. 

Nicolai Hojgaard (+9000)

As you can tell, it’s very hard for me to not bet on Hojgaard, especially when it comes to links golf and European golf as a whole. Between the Memorial Tournament and the U.S. Open he had missed three consecutive cuts but bounced back with a 14th at the Travelers Championship and 26th last week at the Genesis Scottish Open. He placed 14th at The Open Championship a season ago. He also placed 66th in 2024, 23rd in 2023 and 53rd in 2022. Hojgaard is currently ninth on Tour in bounce back, 26th in SG: APP, 37th in three-putt avoidance, 41st in SG: OTT, 43rd in SG: ATG, 55th in scrambling, 65th in both SG: PUTT and sand saves percentage, 72nd in ball striking, 79th in proximity to the hole from 150-200 yards and 115th in total driving. 

Ryan Gerard (+20000)

Gerard is my dark horse this week. The form isn’t perfect but he placed 26th last week at the Genesis Scottish Open. Prior to that he placed 44th at the Travelers Championship, missed the cut at the U.S. Open but placed second at the Memorial Tournament and tenth at the Charles Schwab Challenge. Although playing in his first The Open Championship, a near top 25 last week and the fact that earlier this season he hopped overseas to take second at the AfrAsia Bank Mauritius Open just to better his OWGR rankings to qualify for the Masters Tournament tells something about him. Gerard is currently 15th on Tour in total driving, 21st in SG: APP, 23rd in proximity to the hole from 150-200 yards, 32nd in SG: PUTT, 33rd in ball striking, 40th in three-putt avoidance, 48th in SG: OTT, 64th in bounce back, 113th in scrambling, 116th in sand saves percentage and 127th in SG: ATG. He also has one of the lowest launch angles off-the-tee on the PGA Tour. Meaning his great at keeping the ball low, which is ideal for links layouts, especially if the weather is to get bad.

2025 Betting Card

• Jon Rahm (+1400) - T34th

• Viktor Hovland (+3000) - T63rd

• Russell Henley (+6500) - T10th

• Corey Conners (+8000) - T10th

• Keegan Bradley (+12500) - T30th

• Davis Thompson (+25000) - MC

2024 Betting Card

• Collin Morikawa (+1600) - T16th

• Tony Finau (+5000) - MC

• Sahith Theegala (+5000) - MC

• Tom Kim (+5000) - MC

• Corey Conners (+8000) - T25th

• Alex Noren (+13000) - T13th

2023 Betting Card

• John Rahm (+1200) - T2nd

• Viktor Hovland (+2200) - T13th

• Collin Morikawa (+3500) - MC

• Justin Rose (+5500) - MC

• Tony Finau (+6000) - MC

• Jason Day (+10000) - T2nd

• Brian Harman (+12000) - 1st

Gambling Disclaimer

All of the above listed information, pertaining to who I am betting this week, was collected by myself. I am not responsible for any losses due to gambling as the information listed above are simply my suggestions collected through my research. Please bet responsibly.