Andrew's AdventHealth Championship (KFT) Preview

We have a new name at the top of the Korn Ferry Tour points list, with Ross Steelman’s second win carrying him ahead of Doc Redman and Ian Holt. Steelman and Redman are now officially Tour Bound and, with a commanding lead of 418 points, Steelman must be hoping to secure the top spot for the tour. He deserves it, having played consistently well all season and he was in many ways an unsurprising winner. Joining Blades Brown and Zac Blair at the top of the market for this week’s event shows that the bookies are paying him a sincere compliment, too. Our long-priced selections all made the cut and SY Noh’s electric Saturday saw him flirt with the lead, but he couldn’t hang with Steelman and his Sunday was disappointing. We reload and go again in Kansas.

The Tournament

The AdventHealth Championship has been blessed with that comparatively normal name since 2021. It has a history of peculiar titles, including being known as the Christmas in October Classic (a name that made even less sense when it was held in August, and no, I'm still not making this up.) Regardless of any of that, we’ve had a feeder-tour event in the Kansas City area since 2009, and it has been held here at Blue Hills since 2019 – other than a Covid break in 2020. I previewed this event last year and found the winner, so let’s hope we can repeat that trick.

The winners list here includes the late and lamented Grayson Murray, as well as Cameron Young and Sepp Straka, so you can certainly look at this event and think that a classy long hitter is the way to play this event. The course is listed at 7,383 yards for a standard par-72 with opening and closing par-fives (the 18^th is 646 yards long!) which gives further reason to take that tack. However, I’m not convinced – and that’s why I backed SH Kim, who was 22/1 when winning because the bookies were looking for more powerful golfers.

For one thing, the listed distances on this course are often misleading and shorter tees are frequently used. Data Golf ignores the official length and their own information saw them show the course at 7,038 yards last year, 7,118 yards in 2023 and the full 7,383 in 2024. With cool weather likely (though no wind) it would be no surprise to see the course shortened. More than that, the punitive bluegrass rough, and various hazards, as well as a tough set of par threes, mean that even the longest hitters will be forced to play with long irons and will see fewer advantages accruing from their power off the tee than might be expected.

A last note is that we’re here in August, having played in May since moving to Blue Hills, so this will be a slightly different test. My expectation is that a firmer track will place a higher premium on approach accuracy and scrambling, but I am not close enough to the Kansas weather to know that. So I’m certainly happy with power from the tee, but I’m much more interested in players who are effective with their long irons, can putt and scramble well, and can stay out of trouble from tee to green. Course form and regional experience are important to me too. All of which gives us a slightly different perspective than the orthodox view, which can only be a good thing in seeking value from the bookies.

The Selections

As I mentioned, Brown, Steelman and Blair are the classy trio atop the market, and all are likely enough winners, but none strike me as great value at win-only prices. I feel the same about Ben Kohles (although I think this is a better fit than many would) and Tommy Morrison, for all my adoration of the young man, whilst Thomas Rosenmuller has been so close so often that he’s dropped to a win-only price without winning. The Angel Ayora trap, if you will. So I’ll move a little further down in search of value.

First name on my list is Frankie Harris. It is possible I’ve missed the boat here, given that he cost us a win when picking up a maiden victory two starts ago, but I can’t say enough how much I love this NCAA group (the scoring average and birdie average lists are topped by Morrison, Harris and William Sides) and he isn’t being priced as aggressively as Morrison. From the tee, he’s 42^nd in distance and 37^th in accuracy which suits me much better than a pure bomber, whilst he’s fourth in scrambling and 14^th in putting average. Yes, all this is from a small sample size, but his game suits this sort of course and he’s simply better than the majority of these players, and not priced accordingly. Does he have another 59 in him? It seems unlikely, but never say never, and he’s certainly a heavy enough scorer to thrive here.

My next pick is Noah Goodwin, who I also selected for this last year, when he came 21^st whilst in poor form. He comes here with a third and a tenth among his last four starts, was eighth here in 2024 (when playing a full KFT schedule and in good form) and is, I think, ready to pick up a maiden win at this level. I noted this last year, and it is too good not to repeat… he won the US Junior Amateur “just over the border in Kansas, where he beat Matthew Wolff in the final (as well as Joe Highsmith and Davis Shore in earlier matchplay rounds – the things I research for you, honestly.)” He’s another who is long enough (83^rd in driving distance, bang average) but accurate (30^th in driving accuracy, 42^nd in greens in regulation) and generally has few holes in his game. Coming back to a course he enjoys, he can make a push to regain his PGA card.

Finally, I’m bringing Alvaro Ortiz back into my team for a second week. He was 38^th last week. Ortiz is clearly back to playing solid golf after missing a few cuts (he was 19th in the Pinnacle and 63^rd in Utah) and is still just clinging onto a card-winning position in 20^th. He was third in this last year after a stellar 63 in the second round. A former Arkansas Razorback, he’s familiar with golf in this part of the world and it is no surprise he plays well here. Putting and scrambling are strengths of his game and I can see him going close if not grabbing a second win of the year as he bids to hold onto his card-winning position.

• Frankie Harris, 40/1

• Noah Goodwin, 80/1

• Alvaro Ortiz, 75/1i All picks are 1pt e/w, 1/4 odds 5 places, Bet365. Better odds may come available.