Out of the Rough: BMW Championship (2026)

The penultimate event of the 2026 PGA Tour season is here with this week’s BMW Championship.

Serving as essentially the semi-finals of the season, this event will cut the field from 50-golfers to 30-golfers for next week’s TOUR Championship. 

This event is nomadic, meaning it is staged at a different golf course across the United States each season.

For the first time since 2008, the Bellerive Golf Course will host this season’s BMW Championship. Camilo Villegas won that installment.

Bellerive Golf Course last hosted a professional event in 2018, hosting the PGA Championship won by Brooks Koepka. This historic venue has hosted two PGA Championships (1992 and 2018,) a U.S. Open (1965,) Senior PGA Championship (2013) and U.S. Senior Open (2004.)

The Field

Just the top-50 golfers within the FedEx Cup Standings following the completion of the FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind advanced to this week’s event in Missouri.

Of course, the Tour’s best will be in attendance as the 2026 season comes to a close next week at the TOUR Championship at East Lake.

Again, outside of watching the leaderboard, the top-30 cut-off line will heavily be monitored this week as just the top-30 within the FedEx Cup Standings will be teeing it up next week.

As it currently sits the first five names within the top-30 are Tom Kim, Adam Scott, Kurt Kitayama, Bud Cauley and Rickie Fowler.

The first five names outside of the top-30 are Gary Woodland, J.T. Poston, Nicolai Hojgaard, Alex Noren and Jake Knapp.

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler comes in as the defending champion, having topped Robert MacIntyre by two strokes at Caves Valley Golf Club a season ago.

The Course

Bellerive Country Club is a championship-tested layout, set in St. Louis, Missouri and plays as a par-72 at 7,547 yards.

The course, known as the “Green Monster of Ladue” due to its immense length and overall difficulty, has been the host of many of the game’s largest tournaments over its existence. 

It was originally designed by Robert Trent Jones, Sr. in the 1960’s and was updated by his son, Rees.

The course is known for not only its overall length, but for its thick and penal Zoysia and fescue rough. Missing the fairway is extremely penal here at Bellerive.

On top of needing to play from the fairway, a creek meanders its way throughout the venue as well, coming into play on nine holes this week.

The fairways are crowned, meaning that fairway bounces will often kick the ball side-ways into the penal rough opposed to forward, adding to the overall difficulty of this golf course.

In Rees’ renovation, he brought the bunkers into play off-the-tee for today’s longest hitters. Additionally, many of the fairway bunkers create ‘pinch points,’ tightening the fairway within the process. Many of the longer hitters off-the-tee will opt for three-wood to bring these bunkers out of play.

From there, an aerial attack on approach will be needed to hold these enormous bentgrass greens.

Approach shots onto these greens need to be precise as they are multi-tiered. Daunting multi-putts and slippery run-off areas await those who don’t find the correct landing spot. 

Additionally, deep, penalizing bunkers guard most of these greens, adding yet another element of defense to this golf course.

These greens include subtle interior contours as well as dramatic, slippery falloff areas that lead to extremely difficult recovery chips.

Not only are the physical challenges of this golf course prevalent, many approach shots feature awkward visual angles with blocked sightlines, especially from the rough. This makes depth perception a major challenge.

The closing two holes offer an opportunity for high-risk, high-reward here at Bellerive. The 17th is a long par-five and the 18th is a stout par-four.

The Weather

As of the time of writing this, there is a 65-percent chance of morning thunderstorms on Thursday. Friday through Sunday are calling for just a ten-percent chance of precipitation. Temperatures will be the lowest on Thursday with a high of 82-degrees. From there, temperatures will jump to 87-degrees for both Friday and Saturday before finishing the week with a high of 84-degrees on Sunday. Winds will be the lowest on Thursday before peaking at ten miles-per-hour across the rest of the week. In all, if we can avoid the thunderstorm Thursday morning, it’ll be a great four-days for golf. 

Key Stats

• Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: APP)

• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: OTT)

• Total Driving (75-percent Average Driving Distance / 25-percent Driving Accuracy Percentage)

• Proximity to the hole from 150-200 yards

• Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass (SG: PUTT Bentgrass)

• Scrambling / Scrambling from the Rough

• Strokes Gained: Around the Green (SG: ATG)

• Sand Saves Percentage

• Rough Proximity

• Three Putt Avoidance

• Par-Five Average Scoring

• Bogey Avoidance

Betting Card

Ludvig Aberg (+2000)

As Bellerive is set as your traditional championship layout, there are instantly a few names that come to mind. One being Aberg. Aberg is currently third on Tour in total driving, ninth in proximity to the hole from the rough, 12th in par-five average scoring, 15th in SG: OTT, 17th in SG: APP, 34th in sand saves percentage, 52nd in SG: ATG, 59th in bogey avoidance, 69th in three-putt avoidance, 73rd in proximity to the hole from 150-200 yards, 109th in scrambling and 112th in both SG: PUTT Bentgrass and scrambling from the rough. Aberg was seventh last week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship and ninth at The Open Championship coming into this week. Across his two appearances at the BMW Championship, although at different golf courses, he placed seventh a season ago and second in 2024. 

Cameron Young (+2200)

This was my first click this week and in my opinion, there is some amazing value at 22/1. I get that his latest two outings have not been ideal which contributes to this number, but everything else points to Young having a great week. He placed 39th last week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship and 61st at the Wyndham Championship. Prior to that he placed eighth at the Rocket Classic and second at The Open Championship. In my opinion, this course has a pretty close correlation to the Blue Monster at Doral which Young dominated this season for the Cadillac Championship. Young is currently fourth on Tour in total driving, eighth in scrambling, 13th in SG: OTT, 14th in bogey avoidance, 19th in scrambling from the rough, 21st in SG: APP, 30th in proximity to the hole from 150-200 yards, 34th in SG: ATG, 38th in proximity to the hole from the rough, 56th in par-five average scoring, 70th in sand saves percentage, 118th in three-putt avoidance and 144th in SG: PUTT Bentgrass. He placed 11th at the BMW Championship a season ago, 43rd in 2024, 15th in 2023 and 23rd in 2022. 

Jake Knapp (+4500)

Knapp is getting healthier and healthier with each passing week, which was evident in a solid performance last week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship where he placed seventh. Prior to that he missed the cut at the Rocket Classic but was 13th at the 3M Open. This is another guy built for this type of course. Knapp is currently first on Tour in par-five average scoring, third in scrambling from the rough, 16th in total driving, 19th in SG: APP, 31st in three-putt avoidance, 45th in proximity to the hole from the rough, 48th in sand saves percentage, 50th in SG: OTT, 54th in scrambling, 59th in bogey  avoidance, 65th in SG: PUTT Bentgrass, 69th in proximity to the hole from 150-200 yards and 123rd in SG: ATG. Knapp also has one of the highest ball-flights on Tour, and as previously mentioned, that will be important on approach to hold the greens this week. He’ll be making his BMW Championship debut this week. Knapp is also one of the first five names outside of the top 30 mark and will need a big week this week to have a tee time next week at East Lake.

Alex Fitzpatrick (+11000)

I’m taking a flier on a guy who has played championship-caliber layouts rather well this season at a massive number. Although he’s been rather poor across his last four starts (61st at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, 61st at the Wyndham Championship, 71st at The Open Championship and a missed cut at the Genesis Scottish Open,) he was seventh at the Travelers Championship, 23rd at the U.S. Open, 20th at the RBC Canadian Open, sixth at the Memorial Tournament, 75th at the PGA Championship, fourth at the Truist Championship and ninth at the Cadillac Championship. Fitzpatrick is currently fourth on Tour in SG: APP, fifth in proximity to the hole from the rough, eighth in total driving, 19th in SG: OTT, 24th in par-five average scoring, 28th in scrambling from the rough, 33rd in proximity to the hole from 150-200 yards, 59th in bogey avoidance, 76th in scrambling, 91st in SG: PUTT Bentgrass, 104th in sand saves percentage, 110th in SG: ATG and 138th in three-putt avoidance. He’ll obviously be making his BMW Championship debut this week.

2025 Betting Card

• Rory McIlroy (+750) - T12th

2023 Betting Card

• Patrick Cantlay (+1000) - T15th

• Rickie Fowler (+3300) - T25th

• Wyndham Clark (+4000) - T15th

• Emiliano Grillo (+8000) - T31st

• Adam Hadwin (+12000) - 44th