Out of the Rough: Arnold Palmer Invitational (2026)

The PGA Tour takes to Bay Hill Golf & Lodge for this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, marking the first of back-to-back Signature Events in the state of Florida.

Annually, the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches begins a tough-and-gruling stretch of challenging golf courses but over the past two seasons, the opposite has been true at PGA National.

Now, the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Golf & Lodge will hold the designation as the official start of a tough three-week stretch of challenging golf courses in Florida.

First played as the successor to the Florida Citrus Open Invitational in 1979, this event has been a main-stay of the PGA Tour schedule since.

It has been played at Bay Hill Golf & Lodge since its inception.

Arnold Palmer took a five-year lease on Bay Hill in 1970 with the option to buy. In 1975 he became the full owner of the course. 

The event had played under various names since 1979 but in 2007, it began play under the name of club owner and PGA Tour legend, Arnold Palmer.

The Field

Held annually the week before the ‘Fifth Major’ in THE PLAYERS Championship, this event once drew diluted fields due to that.

However, for the fourth straight season, the Arnold Palmer Invitational has received Signature Event (or Elevated Event as they were first called) status and therefore sees the Tour’s best teeing it up.

As will be the case for most of these Signature Events this season, we already know what the field will look like, besides a few minor sponsor exceptions or Aon swing qualifiers, before the event even announces it. 

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler will of course headline this week’s field as a two-time winner of this event. Scheffler won here in both 2024 and 2022.

Russell Henley won this event a season ago and used it as a catalyst for a fantastic 2025 campaign, which resulted in him finishing within the top five of the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR.) He topped Collin Morikawa by a stroke a season ago.

Other former winners of this event teeing it up this week include Kurt Kitayama (2023,) Rory McIlroy (2018) and Jason Day (2016.)

The Course

Bay Hill Club & Lodge was purchased by Arnold Palmer in 1975 and the event has used his name since 2007.

Bay Hill Club & Lodge plays at a lengthy 7,400 yards and par-72.

It joins the Tour’s “grinder” portion of the schedule as making par at most holes will be considered a good score.

To put into perspective how difficult this course can be, over the last eight years, only Kevin Chappell has registered four rounds in the 60s in the same event.

We’ll see plenty of approach shots from 200-plus yards due to the length of the course. Bombers off-the-tee too will get a leg up, getting down the fairways.

As well as getting off-the-tee with distance, accuracy too will be key. Bay hill is known for its notoriously thick rough. Missing the fairway will be detrimental this week.

Bay Hill features fast and firm Bermuda greens. Approach shots will be taken with a “bump-and-run” approach as high-arching shots tend to bounce off the firm greens.

The course also features an extensive amount of penalty areas and water is in play on nine of the holes. It too is littered with sand traps.

The Arnold Palmer Invitational has caused the highest percentage of penalty strokes in three of the last six years.

The weather will almost certainly be a factor this week as well. Four years ago the weather took a turn for the worse over the weekend, causing the event to turn into a scrambling contest with the greens nearly becoming impossible to reach in regulation.

In years where weather is a factor, the median score has fallen to plus-five.

The Weather

As of the time of writing this, Thursday currently calls for a 25-percent chance of precipitation, Friday a 20-percent chance, Saturday a 25-percent chance and Sunday a 20-percent chance. Temperatures will begin the week at 81-degrees on Thursday before increasing to 82-degrees on Friday. From there, temperatures will climb to 84-degrees on Saturday before returning to 83-degrees on Sunday. Winds will begin the week at 14 miles-per-hour before decreasing to 13 miles-per-hour on Friday and 12 miles-per-hour on Saturday. Winds will finish the week at 13 miles-per-hour on Sunday. 

Key Stats

• Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: APP)

• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (SG: OTT) / Average Driving Distance

• Proximity to the Hole From 200+ Yards

• Strokes Gained: Around the Green (SG: ATG)

• Strokes Gained: Putting Bermuda (SG: PUTT Bermuda)

• Bogey Avoidance

• Average Par 5 Scoring

• Sand Saves Percentage

• Scrambling

• Ball Striking

Betting Card

Matt Fitzpatrick (+2800)

This was my first click this week. I’ve had Fitzpatrick’s name circled for some time. He is currently fourth on Tour in SG: APP, 12th in par-five average scoring, 18th in both SG: OTT and proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards, 24th in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 35th in bogey avoidance, 78th in average driving distance, 80th in ball striking, 84th in SG: ATG, 94th in scrambling and 166th in sand saves percentage. He last played The Genesis Invitational where he finished 24th. Prior to that he placed 14th at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, ninth at the WM Phoenix Open and 63rd at The American Express. Fitzpatrick placed 22nd here a season ago, missed the cut in 2024, placed 14th in 2023, ninth in 2022, tenth in 2021 and ninth in 2020. 

Hideki Matsuyama (+3000)

This was too good of a price to ignore in my opinion. Matsuyama last played The Genesis Invitational where he placed 28th. Prior to that he placed eighth at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, second at the WM Phoenix Open, 11th at the Farmers Insurance Open and 13th at the Sony Open in Hawaii. He placed 22nd here a season ago, 12th in 2024, missed the cut in 2023, 20th in 2022, 18th in 2021 and 56th in 2020. Matsuyama is currently first on Tour in scrambling, second in all of proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards, bogey avoidance and sand saves percentage, fourth in SG: ATG, 13th in SG: APP, 31st in par-five average scoring, 45th in ball striking, 104th in average driving distance, 135th in SG: OTT and 137th in SG: PUTT Bermuda. 

Justin Rose (+5500)

Rose’s course history here is pretty complex. He placed eighth here a season ago but missed the cut in each of 2024, 2023, 2022 and 2020. He missed the cut in his last outing at The Genesis Invitational but prior to that placed 37th at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and won the Farmers Insurance Open. He also missed the cut at The American Express. He is currently eighth on Tour in ball striking, 16th in SG: APP, 24th in bogey avoidance, 31st in par-five average scoring, 43rd in sand saves percentage, 64th in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 75th in average driving distance, 86th in scrambling, 92nd in SG: OTT, 121st in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards and 153rd in SG: ATG. 

Ryan Fox (+12000)

Fox is currently 12th on Tour in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards, 19th in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 26th in average driving distance, 37th in SG: ATG, 43rd in ball striking, 50th in SG: OTT, 58th in bogey avoidance, 68th in SG: APP, 72nd in par-five average scoring, 94th in scrambling and 125th in sand saves percentage. Fox placed seventh at The Genesis Invitational, 24th at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and 24th at the WM Phoenix Open on the season. He last played this event in 2023 where he placed 14th. 

Michael Kim (+20000)

For full transparency, this tip is based on past trends and that’s basically it. Russell Henley placed fourth in 2024 prior to his win in 2025. Scottie Scheffler placed fourth in 2023 prior to his win in 2024. Bryson DeChambeau placed fourth in 2020 prior to his win in 2021. See where I’m going with this? Kim placed fourth here a season ago. Kim is currently 48th on Tour in sand saves percentage, 56th in scrambling, 61st in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 66th in ball striking, 76th in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards, 101st in SG: APP, 108th in bogey avoidance, 110th in average driving distance, 125th in SG: ATG, 142nd in par-five average scoring and 166th in SG: OTT. Kim last played The Genesis Invitational where he missed the cut. Prior to that he placed 72nd at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, 18th at the WM Phoenix Open, missed the cut at The American Express and placed 31st at the Sony Open in Hawaii. 

2025 Betting Card

• Hideki Matsuyama (+2500) - T22nd

• Sam Burns (+5500) - T48th

• Robert MacIntyre (+6000) - T11th

• Matt Fitzpatrick (+8000) - T22nd

• Min Woo Lee (+9000) - MC

2024 Betting Card

• Xander Schauffele (+1400) - T25th

• Sam Burns (+2200) - T30th

• Adam Scott (+5000) - MC

• Kurt Kitayama (+8000) - MC

• Matthieu Pavon (+10000) - T52nd