Andrew's Jonsson Workwear Open (HPT) Preview

A frustrating week for most (though not MJ Daffue) at Fancourt last week, as the event was shortened to 54-holes by persistent rain, and as our selections variously disappointed – in Robin Williams’ case, with an awful pair of rounds to miss the cut, and for Jaco Ahlers and Liam Nolan looked good in patches but ultimately both missed out on the places. After a shortened event, we head to Durban Country Club, which last year hosted a shortened event on the DPWT. 

The Tournament

The good news, first, is that the weather looks better than last time out or last time here, and we can be optimistic of seeing 72-holes. The frustration is that, with a weaker DPWT event in Kenya, a number of likely starters have moved north to Karen and won’t be starting in an event that could have suited. Yes, I’m mourning my probable bet on Dan Erickson. That said, the last of the four South African events still benefits from a strong field with the elite of the Sunshine Tour joining the pick of the main HPT field. We also have Durban CC member and DPWT regular Brandon Stone in the field, making up for the absences.

This is the first time we’ve seen a Challenge Tour level event at this course since the 2022 edition of this event (which featured one round for each player at nearby Mount Edgecombe) and which was won by JC Ritchie. It did host the South African Open for a record-extending sixteenth time last year, with Dylan Naidoo winning a playoff over Laurie Canter following a shortened event. It has also hosted a number of amateur events and is a course that most South African players will be familiar with.

This is regarded as one of the best courses in South Africa – for what it is worth, Golf Digest rank it as the 72^nd best course outside of the USA and Top 100 courses have it the highest-ranked in Africa – and it has been impressively remodeled following flooding two years ago. That means new green complexes, bentgrass tee-to-green and a removal of plenty of trees to return to a native (sub-tropical) look with scrub and vegetation that is tough to play through. Wind is a major defense – though it looks calm enough this week– but the remodeling also brought a meandering stream into play with water on many holes. With the narrow fairways and the short layout, this is a course that will reward accuracy from tee-to-green, but one which can be overpowered by modern players in places. I’m happy with either the extremely powerful or the extremely accurate, but I’m looking for players who are good at exposed courses, putt well, have good course management and ideally have some experience here.

The Selections

We have to start with the favorite, Brandon Stone. Last week I was willing to take on Casey Jarvis at a group of courses that he didn’t love, and I was fortunate that he didn’t quite make enough putts on a shortened event. This week the favorite is even shorter (in arguably a weaker field) but I can’t find a reason to oppose him. The 12/1 is gone, alas, but at 10/1 he’s still value to me. Stone is a member here, and was 16^th in the South African event. He’s in decent form, having grabbed a top-ten in Mauritius and three other top forty finishes from five starts. He was at a low ebb in 2023 when he last played at this level but he regained his DPWT card with some comfort and can outclass this field in his own backyard.

First of the outsiders I want to add to my portfolio is Nikhil Rama. No, this isn’t the first time I’ve backed him, and he certainly hasn’t yet won as much as I think his talent demands, but I also think there’s significant value here and that this is a course that will suit. Also, in the sort of analysis you won’t see in many places, I can tell you that he has great amateur form here – finishing second to Yurav Premlall in the star-studded 2019 Kwa-Zulu Natal amateur event. Yes, that was pre-renovation, but he knows the course and has great memories here, and this talented iron player will prove himself one day – it could easily be this week.

My final pick is a man without course experience in Matthew Southgate. As far as I can work out, he has only played one tournament in Durban (and even that took some figuring out) when he was eighth in the Nelson Mandela Championship at the aforementioned Mount Edgecombe back in 2013. Since then, he’s gone on to prove himself highly adept at exposed courses of this sort, with second, of course, in both the Dunhill Links and Irish Open and with a run of good performances at courses like Rinkven and the Mauritius Open tracks. He’s always performed well in South Africa and is overpriced in my eyes for a player dropping back to the HPT level.  Yes, he’s started the year slowly, but he was best in his most recent start, and this ideal test can see another step forward.

• Brandon Stone, 10/1, 2pts win only, Skybet

• Nikhil Rama, 70/1, 1pt e/w, ¼ odds 5 places, Bet365

• Matthew Southgate, 125/1, 1pt e/w, ¼ odds 5 places, Bet365